Bear Digest

Time Between Now and a Bears Super Bowl

Analysis: A look at how far the Bears really are from a Super Bowl and a BearDigest pick on the winner of Super Bowl LVIII.
Gene Chamberlain|
Time Between Now and a Bears Super Bowl
Time Between Now and a Bears Super Bowl

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Chicago Bears

It's been 17 years since a last-second whim by Tony Dungy allowed Devin Hester to catch the opening kick of Super Bowl XLI and run into the record books.

Now Hester is going into the Pro Football Hall of Fame while the Bears have gone nowhere.

Oh, they had the occasional Jay Cutler limping to Soldier Field's sidelines in an NFC Championship Game or Matt Nagy hollering "boom" in postgame locker rooms until he got double-doinked. In between, it's been frustration and losing.

Matt Eberflus saves his job with seven wins, Nagy can't save his with six. John Fox gets rewarded with another year after taking a 6-10 team to a 3-13 record, while Marc Trestman doesn't get to stay around past two years—to everyone's relief.

Most people born in this century have very little recollection of the Bears in the big game beyond Hester's fabled return.

The Bears now see their team rising after building the kind of solid, young foundation they haven't had since the early Lovie Smith era, but how far are they really from being the kind of team that has pop superstars racing in jets around the world to see them play for all the marbles? 

Here's how far the Bears are from being a Super Bowl team.

Run Defense

They've already arrived. In fact, they were No. 1 in the league in yards allowed, No. 5 in average allowed per carry one year after they were next to last at both. The Chiefs and the 49ers can't say that. San Francisco was third in yards rushing allowed and fourth in yards per attempt.

BearDigest Super Bowl Pick

Advantage49ersChiefs

SF Passing/KC Pass Defense

✓

✓

SF Running/KC Run Defense

✓

KC Passing/SF Pass Defense

✓

KC Running/SF Run Defense

✓

✓

Special Teams

✓

Coaching

✓

✓

Intangibles

(Experience, Taylor Swift)

✓

Adding defensive tackle Andrew Billings, ends DeMarcus Walker and Montez Sweat, and linebackers T.J. Edwards and Tremaine Edmunds had the anticipated effect. A year of playing in the Eberflus scheme caused the line of scrimmage to be reset backward enough to make the Bears best.

It's not necessary to be No. 1 against the run, even if it doesn't hurt. What's important is being able to stop the run when it matters most.

The Eagles were 16th against the run last year when they went to the Super Bowl. The Rams were sixth the previous year when they won. The Buccaneers were No. 1 when they beat the Chiefs.

So a team can be best or not best, but must be good enough to stop the third-and-1 plays or to hold an opponent to 3 yards on a first-down run and force passing situations. They need to be able to bottle up a running attack if that's an opponent's chief weapon. Kansas City's defense is an excellent example. They were only 18th against the run this year and 24th in yards allowed per attempt. Yet, they held the opposing quarterbacks to less than 200 passing yards in each of their first two playoff wins, then when they needed to stop a running attack and faced the Ravens, they held the Baltimore running backs to 27 yards rushing and limited Lamar Jackson to 54 yards on runs.

Maybe the Bears went overboard on this in their rebuild, buy they were so awful at it in 2022 they needed to do something. Now a little less of this and a little more of something else can put them in a Super Bowl class.

As good as they were at run defense, they were not able to stop the Packers from running in either game. They need to be able to stop teams from running on big plays in big games and not just on the stat sheet.

Pass Defense

As long as they sign Jaylon Johnson or put a franchise tag on him, they might be almost where they need to be here. They still need something else, though. One thing's for sure, they weren't close when the season started and had only themselves to blame for this because of a hair-brained scheme.

They spent all of their huge stack of salary cap cash on everything except a viable edge rusher, then tried saying they would make up for this with their interior pass rush. Well, that's fine. Aaron Donald did this for the Rams. The problem the Bears faced was they also had no interior pass rush.

Their secondary might have been improved but no one could see it when opposing passers stood and waited until someone could get open and then threw passes like it was a game of darts. Finally, it all led to Sweat's acquisition and suddenly the Bears pass defense was in business, picking off two or three throws a game, sacking quarterbacks and causing them to panic.

In the last eight games, as Ebeflus pointed out at season's end, they were plus-12 in turnover ratio, second-best in the NFL. They finished tied for first in interceptions and improved from last in passer rating against earlier in ther year to 88.0 and 12th overall.

"So those are all winning ways," Eberflus said. "I talk to the players about that, and that's what they are, and that's proof and progress that we've done a good job there."

Yet, they have not done enough to reach Super Bowl level.

It's going to require another pass rusher because Sweat can't do everything. Ideally it would be a push up the middle from a three technique. The Bears had the right idea when they said they would make up for not having an edge rush with their interior rush. The problem with their idea was you actually need an interior rusher.

The 49ers and the Chiefs both apply heat from the edge and from the middle. They both cover in the passing game.

It's still pass to score and run to win in the NFL. If you're keeping them from passing to score, they're never going to be able to run to win.

Running Game

You could marvel at the great Bears running attack that finished first and second in the league in successive years but know also that these numbers wouldn't have been possible without Justin Fields' running. 

They ran it well enough to be above average with their backs and their run blocking against most opponents, but strong run defenses had no problem shutting down their running backs. In those instances, they had to rely on Fields' scrambling for rushing yards and there's a problem with this. They might not have Fields next year, of course.

The running game needs to be better blocking and they need more variety in the attack.

Detroit's balance of Jahmyr Gibbs' speed with David Montgomery's power was excellent. Roschon Johnson has some power but didn't necessarily show he's the type of back who breaks a lot of tackles at the line of scrimmage the way Montgomery does. He needs to prove this still. They have a combination of speed and power in Khalil Herbert, who has had issues staying healthy full seasons and is more speed than the back who runs low to the ground and plows through tackles.

More than any of this, their run blocking in short yardage needs to improve and that can't happen until the player at the center of all this—the center—is much better. Their wide zone blocking scheme reliance might change somewhat with a new offensive coordinator in Shane Waldron, but it will still be part of their blocking. This scheme takes all five blockers moving in unison, and a breakdown in the middle because of the center doesn't allow walls to form.

More than any of this, the Bears need to know they can count on their run blocking and their runners on big downs, in big games just like they need to be able to run on big downs in big games but not necessarily rely on it all of the time. It keeps them from being predictable to not rely on it excessively.

No one would ever confuse the Andy Reid-Matt Nagy offense with one overly concerned about rushing the ball. They were 19th in yards and 25th in attempts. However, they were 13th in yards per attempt and when they got into the playoffs they were able to depend on Isiah Pacheco for 254 yards rushing in three games this season. Rushing for over 80 yards on average against playoff opponents makes for an effective back and running game. 

If they can use the running attack effectively when they want, they are a running team and possible Super Bowl team.

Passing Game

It's here where the Bears are so far away from the two Super Bowl teams and even playoff teams in general that it's barely worth pondering.

Super Bowl teams need a minimum of three dependable passing targets. They don't all need to be wide receivers, as the Chiefs prove with Travis Kelce. Kansas City doesn't even really have three dependable targets but Patrick Mahomes' brillance sometimes gives mediocre receivers a chance to step up. 

The 49ers have great depth to their passing game in terms of possible targets, from Christian McFaffrey, to George Kittle, to Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and even Kyle Juszczyk.

The Bears have two dependable targets.

The Bears lack a Super Bowl caliber passer. The passer and passing attack need to be able to accomplish 300-yard games on a weekly basis, if required, and definitely in the spotlight of a big game or even Super Bowl.

Justin Fields' good days are 200 yards passing.

Plenty of people like attaching his rushing yards to this. 

It's OK to attach his scrambling yards but not planned quarterback runs. Those are rushing yards. It's even a stretch to call the scrambles passing yards but if you count those as passing yards this year he barely accounted for 3,000 yards combined. It was 3,030 yards, 468 coming on scrambles according to NFLGSIS.com

An NFL quarterback with 3,030 passing yards on the season had better be accompanied by a couple of 1,000-yard rushers. Obviously the Bears didn't have that and no team is going to rely on running backs carrying it in the running attack to that extent in this era.

Beyond sheer yardage is the situational passing aspect. GM Ryan Poles mentioned it at season's end when he talked about Justin Fields needing to win more in the last few minutes. That's when passing is everything and running counts for almost nothing.

"That's a critical part that we've got to continue to get better at because that's where you win games, more games, close games, and a lot of times when you look at the playoffs and championships, that's where you close it out," he said. "That's one big part."

Fields has taken three years to get to where C.J. Stroud got in one year with fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. It's not getting done.

The most important aspect of all this is production under fire and this requires reps. They need to be in situations like the 49ers and Chiefs have been with their passing games in order to build up confidence they can make those plays. The Lions have achieved this, too. Buffalo definitely has it.

Without the receivers or quarterback, without the experience, where does this leave the Bears in the passing game in relation to Super Bowl status?

Nowhere.

Coaching

This is largely scheme. Rookie coaches or even relatively inexperienced coaches can get a team to the Super Bowl. Zac Taylor did it. Nick Sirianni did it.

If they have a scheme and they get it working with capabilities to win on both sides of the ball, then they can be in a Super Bowl. 

Eberflus has one side of the ball working. They've scrapped the offense for a new one and it might be run by a new quarterback. This doesn't lend itself to success. The experience factor matters.

Even the 49ers, with Brock Purdy, have a quarterback who has played almost two full seasons now within the offense and is performing well. The Eagles had a high-functioning attack last year and Jalen Hurts had come into his own as a passer within it.

The scheme and experience are all part of the coaching aspect, and the Bears need games and success to ever achieve this.

Conclusion

The Bears are one pass rusher, most of the offense and experience away from a Super Bowl. 

They have a kicking game, could use a better punt returner, but a dependable person fielding the ball can suffice. They have a capable offensive line short one big piece for blocking, but they need more receivers to complement DJ Moore and more than anything else, they need a quarterback who understands how to attack defenses at critical points through the air on time from within the pocket. If it's not from within the pocket, then they need to be able to do it with regularity from outside the pocket and Fields hasn't done this even if he shows potential.

Detroit made it within a few minutes of a Super Bowl but the Bears have shown they are not the Lions. They have a better overall defense than Detroit. They lack an offense, and the Lions didn't get to the Super Bowl even with what they have.

The Bears might be better than the Lions next year with the right moves.

They still wouldn't be in the Super Bowl.

They're two years from being capable of playing in a Super Bowl, and even then would lack playoff experience to expect to be there.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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