How last week's win reveals a key piece of the Bears' plan for beating the Packers

Make no mistake about it, Ben Johnson says, the Chicago Bears offense is in for quite a challenge when his team faces off against the Packers defense on Sunday afternoon at Lambeau Field.

"This might be the best defense we've seen all year,” the coach told reporters on Tuesday.

That’s lofty praise, especially after facing a talented Eagles defense last Friday. Coming into this game, the Packers currently give up the fourth-fewest points and net passing yards per attempt and the six-fewest total yards and rush yards per attempt in the league, signifying just how tough they are to move the ball and score against.

That said, if there’s any coach who can figure out how to accomplish those tasks, it just might be Johnson. And one cheat code he pressed often against the Eagles might hold the key to success.

On Tuesday, ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime highlighted some advanced stats from the Bears’ most recent win that demonstrated how much the team dominated Philadelphia in the trenches last week, and his notes about Chicago’s scheme making it possible are worth paying attention to.

“Coming into Week 13, the Eagles allowed the third-most rushing yards with light boxes (867) and the Bears took advantage of it,” he wrote. “Monangai and Swift combined for 179 yards. Most of the damage came out of 11 personnel to force those light boxes as Monangai saw light boxes out of 11 on 81% of his rushes while Swift saw it on 75%.”

That smooth strategic gambit from Johnson netted 268 total rushing yards and two touchdowns for the duo of D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, who gashed Philly over and over again with punishing runs.

Things might not be nearly as easy against the Packers. According to Sharp Football Analysis, Green Bay deploys a light box (seven or fewer defenders) on 49.3% of its defensive snaps, which was the ninth-highest rate in the league coming into last week. (The Eagles, by contrast, own by far the highest mark at 63.3%). The trick is that the Packers don't use sub-packages with extra defensive backs as often as Philly. That means their linebackers stay on the field more and provide stouter resistance to the run even with lighter boxes.

Still, Johnson needs to force the Packers to spread out as much as possible. First of all, there’s nothing that slows down an aggressive pass rush, especially one that includes Micah Parsons, like running the ball effectively. Plus, the emergence of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III as credible receiving threats alongside Rome Odunze and DJ Moore makes their 11 personnel sets more dangerous than they’ve been in years past, meaning Green Bay has to honor the pass every time they trot “11” out there.

Let’s also not forget that the Packers just lost defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt for the rest of the year with an ankle injury, which is bound to soften up the middle of that defense a bit.

Knowing this, the Bears must expect the Packers to sell out to stop the run and, therefore, must be able to beat them through the air when the situation calls for it. But their bread and butter remains running the football. That’s how they’re going to grind wins out down the stretch of this playoff run. In order to do that, they need to be able to cleverly mix in run and pass out of these spread-out formations and force Green Bay to lighten the box.

Do that, and the Bears can break the Packers on the road and send another warning to the rest of the league.