How Mitchell Trubisky Can Keep the Starting QB Job

Mitchell Trubisky will take the first snaps with the first team when the Chicago Bears start practices.

Beyond this it's anyone's guess how the quarterback derby will go but the clear favorite in the eyes of odds makers is Nick Foles at -320, or $320 bet earns $100.

Experience, better downfield passing accuracy and his 6-foot-6 stature all come down on the side of Foles. He'll see the defense better being taller, know where to attack it better because of experience reading coverages and put the ball where receivers need it to make yards after the catch.

While it might seem like a matter of time until Trubisky is backup, there are ways he can come away with the opening day starter job. He has three factors coming in on his side and any combination of these weighing in a little more heavily could tip the balance his way.

1. Continuing Pandemic Trouble

It's not easy to say the coronavirus is your friend, but in Trubisky's case it is. If training camps get delayed, or preseason curtailed, it's less time for Foles to learn the offense well enough to be an opening-day starter.

From April through August might seem plenty of time to learn an offense, especially for someone who has played in similar attacks with Philadelphia and Kansas City, but Foles is going to be at a disadvantage if the number of play repetitions on the field are curtailed. He has acknowledged this.

There is only so much a quarterback can do without on-field preparation. Foles mentioned film, playbooks and video installation of the attack as important, but admitted he can't do it without reps.

"So it's really up to me to take the initiative to do those things and there's nothing like going through it and practicing and making mistakes and learning from those and doing it right and doing your footwork and being with the guys and learning their personalities, because I'm a big believer in this game is not about Xs and Os it's about people," Foles said. "You have to have great Xs and Os and great game plans to give you an opportunity to succeed but then ultimately it's about the players.

"So the part that will be the most important is to get the opportunity to most likely be with the players, but I can get the Xs and Os down to where when we are together there won't be as much of a lag as there would be as if I didn't."

And if they can't get together until very late, then the lag time works for Trubisky.

The league has issued directives for the reopening of team facilities but hasn't said put out plans yet for actual practices to begin.

2. Continuing Offensive Line Troubles

It's been an offseason where the Bears pushed a great majority of their offensive line problems off on Harry Hiestand. They more or less made their former offensive line coach a scapegoat.

Think not?

When the season ended, GM Ryan Pace said the personnel had problems.

"That was real this year. That hurt us," he said of the offensive line.

He also said: "That's something we really got to look at from a personnel standpoint."

They did look at it, then looked away. They signed Germain Ifedi, a tackle they're converting to guard who has played some guard and wasn't successful at either spot.

"I think some of the moves we made in free agency with Ifedi, we're really high on him, and just his transition to the right guard spot," Pace said.

It's like they want to be better. Want doesn't get, and the Bears' improvement at the vital right guard position may never occur with Ifedi competing against Rashaad Coward, who has 10 games experience and was an undrafted defensive tackle to start his career.

The Bears gave up 45 sacks last year, most since 2011. So what does this all mean to Foles?

He's less mobile than Trubisky. If line problems continue, the Bears will have to take this into account.

Foles benefited in Philadelphia from superior line blocking with sack rates on less than 5% of his throws. Last year with a poor line in front of him in four Jacksonville games, he was sacked at a 6.4% rate and suffered a broken collarbone.

The 6.4% rate is still less than Trubisky has been sacked in his career in Chicago. He's been sacked 6.8% of the time.

Considering Trubisky is better able to get away from the rush with more than twice the rushing yards (862-390) in 17 fewer games, it says even less for Bears pass blocking.

Foles might be a complete sitting target for pass rushers, much like Mike Glennon was in Chicago.

The mobility factor would make Trubisky a better choice.

3. Ryan Pace Was Right

The first two factors could very well happen. This one takes a great deal of faith in Trubisky, and at this point after 41 starts it seems unlikely to occur but, suppose Pace is actually right. Perhaps Trubisky just developed at a slower rate but will blossom now.

"I think it's just growth as a young quarterback," Pace said, trying to explain Trubisky's failures. "There're things happening around him, it's not just him. He knows he needs to get better in those areas. We knew his experience coming out of college, switching schemes after year one. It's a growth process."

If the Bears have actually put the right talent around Trubisky, the ability to read defenses suddenly comes to him and he now knows the offense well enough, and the poor footwork he displayed before is a thing of the past, Trubisky could be drastically improved and take the job.

It's a long, long list of ifs and none of the factors weighing in on Trubisky's side are actual assets as much as they are mere possibilities or happenstance.

It's the reason Foles is the favorite of odds makers.

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