How to Cash in on Bears and Falcons

The last thing anyone normally talks about in fantasy football is team defense, regardless of whether it's a weekly game or a league.

It's basically one scoring category, but a true sign of defensive dominance is when fantasy advisors start recommending a team's defense for a given week.

The Bears started the year giving up 31 points to Denver, 38 to Green Bay and 41 to Kansas City, and since then they've gradually improved in numerous defensive categories to the point where their defense is recommended as a top-four play this week by SI.com's fantasy expert Michael Fabiano.

There's sound logic for this even if you didn't like their chances to rev up the takeaway machine that accomplished 12 takeaways in a four-week stretch before going without one last week.

For one, Atlanta's offense has averaged 13.6 points away from home this year. The Bears defense is giving up only 14.6 at home despite giving up the 38 to the Packers and 31 to Denver at home. Their defense allowed 12, 12, 13, 13 and 16 points in the last five home games.

It's the (Montez) Sweat effect, the Eberflus coverage scheme and the No. 1 run defense in the league stepping forth and now being recognized.

To be sure, Atlanta has plenty of offensive weapons and more ability to duplicate what Detroit did as the only team since Week 3 to rush for more than 100 yards against the Bears. And the Lions did it twice.

However, teams have found it difficult to do and also to both run and pass. Without one quarter of football against Cleveland, the Bears would be a top-10 defense for the season.

Playing a backup quarterback against the Bears doesn't make for a reason for optimism on the part of Atlanta's offense. One man's Taylor Heinicke is another's Desmond Ridder, but at least Heinicke has given the Falcons hope based on two of his performances and a history of surprising some teams with hit efficiency.

Here are the other top plays for fantasy football from Sunday's Bears and Falcons game.

Play 'Em

1. Bears QB Justin Fields

It shouldn't be as much of a one-man act as it was last year in Atlanta when Fields was about all the Bears had going for them. Fields will need to vary his targets, scramble and take what he can get against a solid Falcons defense ranked eighth against the pass and 15th against the run. The Falcons haven't had to face many scramblers of Fields' caliber but their defense was the one which first made Joshua Dobbs into a temporary cult hero by allowing him to run seven times for 66 yards and throw for two touchdowns in a 31-28 Vikings win. It's tough on a defense when you've got everything covered and the quarterback is burning you for big-time yards scrambling.

2. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson

It's not that Atlanta will shred the Bears run defense, but the combination of his receiving and rushing will amount to a good total. The Bears give up the second-most rceptions to running backs per game (6.4). It's their approach on defense to cover the deep passes and rally to the ball on short stuff. They need to wrap up on Robinson in the open field.

3. Bears WR DJ Moore

It's not that Moore is going to be a sure bet to shred the Falcons defense. He's not. He has had only sporadic success against them in the past with Carolina, including a 152-yard receiving game last year. But he's pretty much all Fields is going to have in the passing game with Darnell Mooney out and Cole Kmet playing after a knee injury. Moore, himself, is playing with an ankle injury but seems impervious to this pain.

4. Falcons TE Kyle Pitts

Tight ends who can get down the field have been the ones who give the Bears the most trouble. David Njoku from Cleveland comes to mind. They have held some good tight ends in check, though, such as Sam LaPorta and T.J. Hockenson. The trick for the Bears defense is in limiting the yardage of the tight ends, just like with the receiving yards of the backs. If they're not allowing catch and run, it will be more difficult for those players to make an impact against their zone.

5. Bears RB Khalil Herbert

The Falcons didn't face the dual threat of Fields running or Herbert running last year and the explosiveness of both creates problems for a defense. It wasn't as hard for defenses when Herbert was still getting past an ankle injury but he had his burst back last week to the point where he could finally break a tackle and get upfield. The end result was 250 Bears rushing yards against a bad rushing defense. The big issue for Herbrt this week is whether he'll get enough carries to have the same kind of impact because D'Onta Foreman is expected to be available this week after being out for personal reasons last week. Either way, the Falcons are giving up over 124 yards rushing per game since they lost defensive tackle Grady Jarrett and only 95 when they had him, so the running lanes should be easier to find against this defense than earlier this year. Of note, the Falcons haven't allowed a rushing TD on the road this year, but as stated, they haven't really played a dual-threat rushing approach like this, either.

6. Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier

Allgeier has been sort of the Falcons' hammer, like Foreman for the Bears. He has had just two TD runs since the season opener but does get half the carries and is effective. He ran for 55 yards against a much more porous Bears defense last year.

7. Bears TE Cole Kmet

They probably can't expect much from him downfield like last week when he set a personal mark for receiving yards before his knee injury. However, he can still get open on shorter routes to take pressure off the running game. He's averaged 5.6 catches for 54.7 yards a game in the last eight and is always a threat in the red zone.

8. Falcons TE Jonnu Smith

The Falcons are using two tight ends and throwing to them as a major function of their offense. Their problem on offense is they try to do too much and don't focus on a particular area where they can excel first. But Smith is a threat. He has only three fewer (47) catches than Pitts and his total of receptions is a career high.

Sit 'Em

1. Bears RB D'Onta Foreman

He'd be a sure play if there was any way to know for sure if they have a role intended for him. When they had all three backs healthy earlier, Foreman was inactive. But this is one power back who definitely has a history of gouging the Falcons defense. He ran for 130 and 118 yards on them last year with Carolina.

2. Falcons WR Drake London

The Bears have been able to shut down the X-receiver for opponents largely because of Jaylon Johnson. London is entirely capable of hurting opponents, but he's not someone a fantasy player at this late stage of the season can count on because he's been so inconsistent. It might be more a case of his team's quarterbacks than his own play but he's been held to less than 40 yards receiving in four of the last six games. Then again, he broke out for 10 catches and 172 yards against a good Tampa Bay defense and five catches for 91 yards against a good Saints defense. So it's anyone's guess what he'll do.

3. Falcons QB Taylor Heinicke

Even if he pulls off the surprise like last week at home against Indianapolis, he's not going to pile up big yardage against this Bears defense. Best-case scenario for Atlanta is winning it on defense and because of Fields' mistakes.

4. Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson

He's having a poor year as a return man and only averages about four carries a game while he's only been targeted 12 times on the year.

5. Bears WR Tyler Scott

Without Mooney available, Scott is the next most logical threat to provide a counter to Moore in the passing game but he hasn't proven he can do more than catch one pass in a game.

6. Bears WR Velus Jones Jr.

They used Jones in a gadget role two games ago and it worked well. If the running game is getting bogged down, look for this again but it's about the only way Jones makes an impact on games this season.

Defense

As strong a play as the Bears are on defense for this week, the Falcons also can be. They've given up 8, 9, 10 and 15 points in four of their last five games. The problem is they haven't been as effective in road games unless they're playing a really poor offense like the Jets and Panthers. They weren't even that good in a home game against Tampa Bay (29 points). So it's not as solid of a defensive play as the Bears but can work for a fantasy owner who likes a gamble.

In IDP leagues, it's hard to go against Atlanta safety Jessie Bates III when he has six picks and Fields loves to go searching deep and late on plays. Those are circumstances that lead to interceptions. Atlanta's offensive line has solid grades overall and Kaleb McGary is blocking Montez Sweat but Detroit had a pretty good blocker on Sweat and he managed to ruin Jared Goff's day.

The Betting Window

It was serious leakage as the power plays have hit a downward trend with two straight losing weeks, this time a season's worst 1-4 for the week thanks to the Jaguars struggling mightily against Tampa Bay and the Jets nearly squandering a 27-7 lead. That's why they call it gambling.

The Bears call was a bit better, nearly hitting the final point spread on the head at 10 points. It was 11. Some of the late money this week has gone on the Falcons and the betting line has dropped to 2 1/2 from three.

The Line: Bears by 2 1/2 (Over/under 38)

BearDigest Pick: Bears 20, Falcons 14

BearDigest Record: 9-6 overall, 6-8-1 ATS, 7-8 over/under)

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2023 Record: 36-27-2

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