Bear Digest

Not All Positives with Drafting a QB Are Obvious

Analysis: The Bears coaching staff could derive hidden benefits from a decision to draft Caleb Williams over going ahead with Justin Fields.
Gene Chamberlain|
Not All Positives with Drafting a QB Are Obvious
Not All Positives with Drafting a QB Are Obvious

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Chicago Bears

Within the last few weeks the list of media and analysts who say they believe the Bears will draft Caleb Williams seemed to grow exponentially.

SI.com's Albert Breer said this, so did the Tribune's Brad Biggs, ESPN's Adam Schefter, Jeremy Fowler and Matt Miller and NFL Network's Tom Peliserro and Daniel Jeremiah.

These are only opinions but they're well qualified to make such an observation.

It's not unanimous. In fact, the most recent news about Kliff Kingsbury going to the Commanders, located near where Williams went to high school in the Washington DC area, seems to have jolted the least convinced. The NFL Mock Draft Database reports only 78% of the mocks reporting in now putting Williams as a Bears pick at No. 1. That's a drop of about 11% from last week.

Nothing substantial in the draft outlook has changed since last week other than that move by Kingsbury, who needed a job regardless of team or city and wound up in Washington .

The obvious benefits Williams brings to a team is a strong, accurate arm with a rapid delivery and an ability to throw to space or anticipate the targets coming open. He runs to pass and carrying it downfield is his last resort weapon.

Those are the obvious positives. There are a few less obvious benefits.

Cost Efficient

The salary cap benefit has been beaten to death but can't be denied. The so-called reset occurs so the Bears aren't paying for a quarterback for at least three more years. There is no way the Justin Fields crowd can offset that hidden advantage Williams brings over the current Bears starter, although Fields does give them one more year at a cut rate.

Another advantage for Ryan Poles is the fact this would be a player he's drafting, a player who is agreed upon by both he and Matt Eberflus. No matter how much they say they like Fields, it isn't their player. He's inherited.

Finally, there is this one hidden advantage for Eberflus and his staff. If the Bears can't do better than 7-10 this season with Williams at QB, there is a chance he could be retained as coach. At least, it would have to be considered by ownership/management/Poles.

Not that giving the staff more time to try to win with a rookie QB would be the right and proper thing to do, but it is an argument a coach whose team bordered on success could use. They just need more time to work with a rookie QB.

Sure there is the Houston Texans example right out in the open where a rookie came in to a bad team and organization with a new coaching staff and led them to the playoffs. 

For every C.J. Stroud there are countless other rookie QBs who failed first before moving forward. Even Peyton Manning was an interception waiting to happen as a rookie.

Rookie Trouble Means Second Chance

Stroud was one of only 15 QBs in history to lead a team into the playoffs as rookie. Rookies have a 10-15 record as postseason starters.

Inexperience and youth are convenient, built-in excuses, and while no coach would say up front that it can be used as an excuse for failure, it definitely could be an argument behind close doors—especially if the decision makers are torn about firing the staff.

The Bears are starting over with a new offense in a third year when management expects results.

"First of all, our standard is always going to be to win the division and we're starting to chip away at that," GM Ryan Poles said. "That's what made that last game disappointing, too, because I thought there was an opportunity to kind of split that in half and take three (divisional wins) there.

"That's always going to be our expectations. But this team is ready to take the next step, and we always have high expectations of what we should be."

If it doesn't get where they want, a rookie QB is always a convenient crutch to lean on and thus a hidden benefit for Poles and especially Eberflus to favor drafting Williams.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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