How Numbers Lie About Bears Rushing

NFL statistics show the Bears to be second overall in rushing.

It's a deceptive number because there is actual rushing, and then there is just rushing.

A good rushing team doesn't merely have big numbers.

It is a good rushing offense if it is capable of running for yardage when it needs or wants to, one with a push on the line of scrimmage in short yardage and one which can set up good down-and-distance for second and third down before converting those on the ground when warranted.

The Bears are not a poor rushing team but their inability to score in the red zone on the ground was evident again on Thursday when Washington denied Khalil Herbert on fourth-and-1, actually less than one.

They haven't run when they really need to, and their overall rushing figure is greatly inflated due to Justin Fields' scrambles.

Averaging 5.2 yards rushing as a team like they are is an elite figure, but according to NFLGSIS stats, the Bears have had 270 yards on 32 scrambles by Fields. He has only 12 yards on 22 carries on other runs, which includes downing the ball and quarterback sneaks.

Those numbers do say they could probably stand to call a few designed running plays for Fields that aren't sneaks or downing the ball, or he should keep it on RPOs a few more times.

That aside, if you remove his yardage and carries totals, and also the 157 yards the Bears had on two breakaway runs by Khalil Herbert and a 41-yarder with an end around by Equanimeous St. Brown, the Bears are averaging 4.18 yards a carry as a team. That's still not bad, but the No. 2 ranking suddenly loses a great deal of its luster when your backs and receivers are rushing for only 4.18 yards a carry. That's only so-so production.

Even with the breakaway runs included and not Fields' scrambling, they are at 4.57 yards a carry. It's a good average but nowhere close to consistently great yardage.

At the goal line, on runs inside the 5, they have gained 10 yards on nine attempts. Obviously, they are getting no push in such instances and it's easy to see why they're mulling possible offensive line change during their elongated mini-bye caused by a Monday night game after a Thursday night game.

One of the key stats not often mentioned is average yards on first down rushes and here the Bears are fifth in the NFL with 6.1 yards. It should be an indicator of offensive success because they're setting themselves up for second-and-short or third-and-short.

When pass plays are included, they are still a respectable 6.03 yards for all first-down plays, 10th best in the league.

But then come the other downs and their offense has been unable to provide the blocking support to gain those extra 3 or 4 yards for a first down.

The Bears have run 15 times on second-and-3 but converted only eight, averaging only 3.3 yards on those rushes.

Fields has scrambled 14 times on third downs and accounted for 12 first downs then. That's a big chunk of first downs gained through plays that were supposed to be passes but wound up being a run.

Gains and first downs often come for the Bears in ways they didn't intend, especially on the ground.

So it would be inaccurate to label the Bears one of the league's most efficient running teams.

They are inconsistent, but possess potential.

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