Road Ahead Tough for Bears and Surrogate

Nothing happens in a vacuum, especially in the NFL.

A weekend without football in Chicago created a different setting ahead for the Bears and made apparent several truths about where this second-year rebuild is actually situated.

1. First Pick Assistance

The return of Kyler Murray immediately made a difference for Arizona and helped solidify the potential Bears claim to the first pick in the 2024 draft.

The Panthers now have a full game lead as Bears surrogates in the backward race for first draft pick. Carolina is fully deputized by the Bears to be as clownish as possible. Even with Murray back, it's going to be difficult for the Cardinals to get victories, so nothing is assured for the Bears in this race to first pick in the draft. With no incentive to actually lose, the Panthers can't be trusted in this tankathon. They might just go and foul things up by beating someone.

The Cardinals have to play a tough schedule against the Texans, Rams, Steelers, 49ers, Bears, Eagles and Seahawks. The Panthers probably have more potential victories ahead than Arizona, with games against Dallas, Tennessee, New Orleans, Atlanta, Green Bay, Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. So it's going to be difficult for the Bears to find their way into being gifted the No. 1 pick again, especially without Lovie Smith around to make sure they get it like he did last year.

The Bears may even need to take matters into their own hands and decide to get a good look at Nathan Peterman's potential with a start at quarterback in that Christmas Eve game against the Cardinals if they hope to get the top spot in the draft. In other words, if they want the first pick, they might just have to do it themselves rather than rely on Carolina bumbling.

Meanwhile, over the weekend other teams, like the Giants and Patriots, made noise about getting in on this battle.

The Giants are well equipped to "win" this race with Tommy DeVito starting at QB the rest of the year. Even Mac Jones might be able to win a game against them.

The bottom line is the Panthers can still earn the Bears that top spot just by being as awful as they were Thursday night seven more times. Ultimuately, it's better to have a one-game lead in this "battle," and know that it's more likely the Cardinals will be undeserving of the worst record with Murray back starting.

THE RACE TO WORST RECORD/FIRST PICK FOR BEARS

2. Defensive Improvement Proof

Detroit's 41 points against the Chargers in a win made it apparent the Bears defensive improvement over the last four games will be tested severely twice in the next three games. The return of David Montgomery from injury after almost a month away with a 75-yard run also makes it apparent this week's game at Ford Field could be personal for the former Bears back.

The last time the Bears faced an explosive offense, the defensive strides they thought they had made completely vanished. This was against the Chargers in their 30-13 loss. It will require a much stronger effort against the Lions than against Carolina based on the way Jared Goff seems to command an attack and does what he wants at will. Detroit is second on offense, fourth in passing and fourth in rushing, while Miami and Kansas City might have the only offenses with more overall explosiveness.

The Lions scored 42 against the Panthers when Carolina had defensive end Brian Burns available on defense. The Bears managed 16 on Carolina without Burns.

3. Josh Dobbs Is for Real

The Vikings loom in two weeks for the Bears in Minneapolis, and when they lost Kirk Cousins it looked like a possible Bears victory. Now? Not so much. QB Josh Dobbs is all the rage. The former Steelers, Titans and Cardinals backup has completed 67.2% for 426 yards with a 101.4 passer rating in his two games. Anyone can get lucky once. Tyson Bagent was effective in his debut start. But Dobbs delivered for the second straight game Sunday against New Orleans in a win that wasn't as close as the score looked. The Vikings showed real foresight in trading away a sixth-round pick to get Dobbs and a conditional (sixth or seventh-round) pick. Essentially, they got Dobbs for nothing and he has played better than they could have expected from anyone on their roster and better than many NFL starters. With Justin Jefferson returning to health and the Vikings defense looking better than it has in years under coordinator Brian Flores, the 11-game Bears divisional losing streak seems likely to continue.

4. Justin Fields Will Need to Earn It

If the final seven games are to determine the fate of the Bears QB, at least they know it will be a legitimate test. There is only one team among their remaining opponents ranked in the bottom half of the league at defending the pass. It's the Lions, and this is largely irrelevant because Detroit can simply outscore opponents.

5. What Popping Off Got Roquan Smith

A week after the former Bears linebacker decided to trash the Bears yet again with even more vindictive comments, the Browns scored 33 points against his new team in a win and did it by running for 178 yards.

Smith had said he was glad to be with a team that ensured his career wouldn't be wasted because they were Super Bowl contenders.

Smith did have a whopping 21 tackles in the game.

Out of 21 tackles, how many were for loss? Zero.
DBs can make tackles behind the line of scrimmage.

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