Bears Let Answer on Defense Slip Away

The Bears just experienced another flashback last week to their failed personnel past when they got embarrassed by Patrick Mahomes.

They'll always be known for trading up one spot to take Mitchell Trubisky when they could have had Mahomes and needed a quarterback more than anything else.

Strike that last phrase as redundant as they always need quarterbacks more than anything else.

This was Ryan Pace's fault, but there were a handful of other teams who could have taken Mahomes and didn't, either, as he fell to 10th. This doesn't say anything in support of Pace, just that there were other teams as foolish as he was and didn't see talent staring them in the face. Maybe they thought Mahomes was from a tricked-up gimmicky razzle-dazzle offense or something and not a perennial MVP.

So the Bears reached this same crossroads again this past March, apparently, and Ryan Poles made the mistake.

This time it might be even worse.

More than anything else to make Matt Eberflus' scheme work, they needed a three technique tackle. They had the answer to their problems staring them right in the face and chose against it because Jalen Carter had made a terrible decision at Georgia when two people died.

They not only decided against drafting him first, but moved down, got plenty of value for the trade down, had the chance again to take him and opted to trade back one spot before taking Darnell Wright.

"Yeah, I won't comment specifically on him," Poles said about Carter after the draft, "but character’s always going to be important for us."

Was He Really a Character Risk?

Character is important but there was nothing to say Carter couldn't learn from his terrible mistake. Honestly, a mistake of that magnitude makes anyone sit up and take notice about their life choices.

And now here is Carter dominating the line of scrimmage.

Pro Football Focus has graded Carter No. 1 in the NFL after three games. That's not just among rookies, it's among everyone at defensive tackle including Aaron Donald and Javon Hargrave. He's everything anyone with a television set could see if they watched Georgia games at all the last two years, whether it's defending the run or rushing the passer. And he's playing a position where the Bears are struggling more than anywhere else right now.

Sure, they needed Darnell Wright. They need anyone on either side of the line of scrimmage they can find because it's here where they are struggling the most and have been the last two years.

The biggest problem the Bears have had on defense is getting off the field on third down and this hasn't been the result of poor pass coverage as much as it has been no pass rush to force mistakes. On Sunday they got a little heat on Chiefs backup QB Blaine Gabbert on one play and what do you know? Jack Sanborn produced the team's first takeaway of the season. Their three techniques -- Justin Jones, Gervon Dexter and Zacch Pickens -- have four pressures between them, three for Jones. They can move DeMarcus Walker inside to that spot but he has played only 16 snaps in the B-gap or A-gap so far, according to PFF.

They've been leaving it up to Jones or the two rookies.

Even nose tackle Andrew Billings is coming up with more in terms of pressure and he's not on the field all the time in passing situations. He has eight pressures. Maybe they need to start using him as the three technique all the time and flip Jones to nose.

They have had minor success with Yannick Ngakoue pressuring from outside and he has their only sack to go with 12 pressures but they need to finish more rushes with sacks because passers sit in the pocket on third down and convert one third-and-long after another against them.

All of this could have been solved by taking Carter the second time around, after they had traded down, or even taking him first if they felt they didn't want Moore and future draft picks.

The argument gets made often how the Eagles were better equipped to handle a player who was a character risk than the Bears, so they could take the chance instead.

No.

Find talent. Select talent. It's pretty simple. Don't over think it.

If the Bears had him, a popular argument goes, he wouldn't be nearly as productive.

The Bears had plenty of veteran defensive linemen and leaders who could have kept watch over Carter and guided him if he needed it. Jones is one of those. Walker is another. They have leadership. They have this goofy leadership committee with about 52 of their 53 players on it and maybe six or seven practice squad players so someone surely could have given him direction if he needed it.

What they don't have is talent on that defensive front.

In fact, if Carter had been on the Bears his statistics would probably be more gaudy. He'd be getting more chances in the gap as the three technique in this Tampa-2 style of defense than in the scheme former Bears defensive coordinator Sean Desai is using—a 3-4 with both two-gap and one-gap responsibilities at times.

The Eagles have had Carter on the field for only 89 plays. The Bears have had Jones play that position for 131 plays this year. So Carter would have had at least 42 more chances if he was their three technique.

Sure, the strength of the rest of the Eagles defensive front lets Carter have a better shot at piling up statistics but not more than if he had 42 more chances. Thats 32% more plays than he has been on the field so far. And he'd be attacking the gap all the time, not occupying blockers some of the time.

Carter was supposed to be lazy too, his critics suggested. He didn't look lazy on the fumble he forced Monday night against Tampa Bay, as he came back upfield and knocked the ball loose from behind.

Carter looks every bit the generational defensive tackle personnel people suggested he could be. Whatever the Bears got instead, they still needed Carter more than anything else to make Eberflus' scheme work the best. They needed the interior pass rush pressure they told everyone they were sure they could generate this year with the players they have. And they haven't.

Same-Old, Same-Old with the Bears

The cycle keeps repeating.

In 1998 I sat there with a handful of other reporters at a table listening to the late Mark Hatley extoll the virtues of Randy Moss as a generational receiver. That was the word he used, "generational."

He was. The Bears definitely could have used a generational talent at receiver. Instead they took Curtis Enis fifth overall. Moss scared everyone off until getting picked 21st. Enis should have scared off the Bears when Joe Paterno wouldn't even vouch for him.

There are plenty of examples of players being character risks who lacked real talent. If they don't have the talent, scouts and personnel people need to obviously determine this.

When it's talent staring them in the face and there is some sort of other potential character risk, then they need to do a better job of determining what really is a flaw and what isn't.

Warren Sapp and Moss and any number of other great players over the years did virtually nothing in their careers to diminish their obvious talent.

Now Poles has made the biggest draft mistake of his young career, and we haven't even gotten into the quarterback discussion yet.

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