Seven Games to Decide an Uncertain Future

As Justin Fields begins the fight for his football life over the next seven games, something similar could also be facing coach Matt Eberflus.

At least that's what many believed Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated suggested this week in his mailbag when asked by a frustrated Bears fan about the chances of Jim Harbaugh being someone the team would want to hire as coach.

What Breer wrote was: "...I'd say the chances that Bears president Kevin Warren wants to remake the football operation, and maybe be more intimately involved in it after the season, are strong. So I think it'd probably take a late-season surge from the team to get Matt Eberflus a third season in Chicago."

Bears fans shouldn't become too excited about this idea Kevin Warren would put his stamp on actual football processes.

Warren, after all, is not someone with the kind of background in the sport itself to make decisions about the on-field product. They have the general manager hiring coaches in their current organizational structure.

Warren's change seems much more likely to be aimed at getting the organization working the right way rather than as the inefficient mom and pop McCaskey shop it has been for decades. If he's going to intervene and simply tell Poles to fire Eberflus and be done with it, then you've got Warren suddenly going from organizational head to picking up the football, running around with it and spiking it. The end result might be joyous fun for some but that's no more effective management than the McCaskeys doing the same thing over and over again.

If he wants the coach to change, Warren should convince Poles to fire someone he has constantly praised, and then get out of the way and let Poles hire someone else. That is, unless Warren has decided to axe everyone and be done with it just two years after George McCaskey put all of this into place with help from Bill Polian.

Time to Do Something Positive

Whatever, everything definitely points to Eberflus needing to make progress at season's end. This much is certain even if win totals are uncertain. How would the organization explain consecutive three-win seasons?

"We expect consistency out of all our positions," Eberflus reminded this week when talking about Fields.

The same applies to the team and its coaching staff, and the Bears under Eberflus have been the epitome of inconsistency. They haven't won consecutive games under him.

However, it needs to go beyond winning a few games over teams in similar losing situations at the end of a meaningless season, during a rebuild that suddenly seems to be stretching on and on like this sentence.

IN THE LAST FOUR GAMES THE BEARS HAVE 31 PENALTIES AND THEIR OPPONENTS HAVE 10

No one should be shocked if the Bears win their final three. Toss in a fourth straight against the Browns now that they'll be facing the backup quarterback they cut, P.J. Walker, instead of Deshaun Watson. Atlanta, Arizona and Green Bay are not hoisting the Lombardi Trophy this year.

Opportunity is obviously there for a strong finish against teams with big problems. The Bears might even establish an actual, gasp, winning streak. Or winning consecutive games might even be nice.

Take a Win in the North

Winning at least one against the Lions and Vikings in the next three games would be what they really need to set everyone at ease about the regime's direction.

The Bears really need to show an ability to beat teams in the NFC North. After all, they're supposed to take the North and not give it back, as Poles so famously put it.

They need to show they can compete better against good or above-average teams.

The Chargers, a playoff team last year, picked them apart. The Bears committed five turnovers to self-destruct against a Saints team no one would confuse with ones Sean Payton coached there. Speaking of Payton, the Bears couldn't hold a 21-point lead against his new team when it was still winless.

The Bears need to do something surprising to show they are on the right path out of this reformation Eberflus and Poles initiated. An unimpressive win here over a laughingstock like Carolina, a win there over struggling Washington only say they can win on given weeks over weaklings.

How They Do It

To reach the desired level, the Bears need to start being who they thought they were.

Eberflus lives by the HITS principle, as everyone with knowledge of football or the alphabet knows by now. The "T" stands for taking care of the football and takeaways, the "S" for smart play.

After his minibye self-scout, Eberflus pointed out the Bears were plus-5 in turnover margin in the three games they've won during the last six.

"And that's a big reason why we won for those football games," he said. "And the sack numbers were good on both sides too. So that was a good thing to look at."

He had some other stats based on the last six games as proof of the team's turnaround.

"The run offense and run defense again has been third and first in the league," he said. "And then the third-down percentages are really good, both in the top 10 during those games, and that was the reason why we were in most of those games and had a chance to win three of those and a chance to win the fourth and potentially another one there as well."

HITS? Really?

Before he can go on to those selective numbers to make the team look better, Eberflus needs to stop at his own HITS principle numbers.

Everyone knows they need to win the turnover battle. Lovie Smith told us that much until people were sick of hearing it—both that and "Rex is our quarterback." Yet, no one seems to be doing enough about it.

The Bears might be plus-5 in those games they won but they are minus-9 overall in turnover ratio this season. They are last in the NFL in turnover ratio after 10 games and Year 2 of the rebuild based on takeaways and avoiding them.

The "S" stands for smart, yet in Year 2 of the rebuild the Bears are tied with Carolina for the NFL lead in false starts with 18. They are tied for second in offsides penalties.

The last game the Bears committed fewer penalties than an opponent was Week 2 against Tampa Bay. The first two games were the only times all year this happened. They had one game with the same number of penalties, and in all seven of the other games they had more penalties than their opponents. In the last four games they have 31 penalties and opponents have 10.

This is improvement toward smarter play? This is the HITS principle in action?

If they can't reduce turnovers and stop committing stupid penalties, there really is no reason for retaining a coaching staff pledged to efficiency in these areas.

They will never win the North if they defeat themselves every week.

This much should be apparent to bureaucratic organizational executives or even the general manager who hired the current coach, just like it is to fans.

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