Numbers Point to This Stunning Bears Pick

Some mock drafts follow the standard approach.

Other mock drafts might be unorthodox.

And then there are some mock drafts that are flat out mocked.

NFL.com analytics expert Cynthia Frelund has used her expertise in the past to produce less orthodox mock drafts but her choice for the Bears at No. 1 in her first mock draft for 2024 set social media on its ear.

Frelund apparently doesn't see the Bears trading away Justin Fields because she doesn't have the Bears selecting Caleb Williams. However, she doesn't have them taking quarterback Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels. And she also doesn't have them taking the player who could actually be the best on many draft boards, wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr.

Instead, she projects the first pick to Chicago being Notre Dame tackle Joe Alt.

Nothing against Alt, who looks like a complete Terminator at tackle. The Bears have a left tackle graded by Pro Football Focus at an average to above-average level against the rest of the league in Braxton Jones, but you can always get better if you're just above average.

However, with spectacular talent at need positions available, this seems a total reach.

Frelund doesn't use normal selection means and explained this first, which somewhat cushioned the blow for Bears followers looking at this. That is to say, they only needed smelling salts instead of a defibrillator.

She compares free agency information against project market value projects for free agents and cap space for each team, then adds free agents and drafted players based on projections that could most help a team's win total the most.

"Alt just passes receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. in immediate impact for the Bears’ O-line, which allowed their QBs to be pressured at the highest rate in the league last season (45.1 percent)," Frelund wrote.

Of course, Williams was drafted in this mock by the Washington Commanders.

Frelund got the Bears their wide receiver at No. 9 in Round 1 with LSU's speedy Malik Nabors.

"He also has the lowest speed erosion when running after contact of any WR in the past three NFL Scouting Combine classes," she wrote.

These are made on some sound analytical data.

The problem with her thinking here is that the pressure rate aside, the offensive line allowed only a 3.4% sack rate when Tyson Bagent was at quarterback and 10.6% rate with Fields at quarterback. She might want to look more at the pressure rate when Fields is throwing and the sack rate. It all indicates the pass blocking problems weren't exactly the fault of their offensive line, so tackle might not be as critical as getting the top target for Fields in the draft, Marvin Harrison Jr. Then they would have two severe threats to defesnes in the passing game.

Analytics? Former Bears defensive coordinator Greg Blache had it right.

"Numbers lie," Blache once said. "Numbers are like your brother-in-law, they lie; they need to."

Analytics are nice but there's a better way and it's much more simple: Need really good quarterback, see really good quarterback, take really good quarterback.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven