Mock Drafts Begin to See Pass Rusher at No. 9

One highly credible mock draft went with need for the Bears at No. 9, even though the well seems like it will run dry at this position when they pick.

Certain mock drafts carry more weight than others.

Analyst Daniel Jeremiah is that way for NFL Network, and his latest mock draft points the Bears to a need player but seems to be less trendy than other mocks—possibly less realistic as well.

The NFL.com heavy hitter struck out here with their second pick in the mock.

Jeremiah has Caleb Williams coming to the Bears at No. 1 like virtually every mock draft does now. As of Tuesday, they were coming in with Williams on 86% of mock drafts recorded at NFL Mock Draft Data Base.

However, on Jeremiah's second Bears first-round pick, No. 9 overall, he has them taking wide receiver Rome Odunze from Washington. If the Bears accomplished this and also had Williams at No. 1, they'd definitely be piecing together a formidable passing attack already.

"To me, it will be a home run draft for the Bears if they pick Williams at No. 1 and then land Odunze here," Jeremiah wrote. "This would transform their offense."

He's right but it seems unrealistic.

More and more big boards reflecting talent are rating the top three receivers in this draft as players who need to be taken with the first eight picks.

Jeremiah had Florida State edge rusher Jared Verse going to the Bears at No. 9 on his first mock draft and that one looks more realistic right now than the most recent mock which expects Odunze to last so long.

Many mock drafts still put Georgia tight end Brock Bowers in the first eight picks, as well. It's difficult to see how a NFL team could arrive at the conclusion a tight end needs to go in the first eight picks even if they needed a tight end. The position isn't valuable enough for this.

Rather, it's looking more and more like the Bears will need to move back a bit and then take a wide receiver, or move back even more and then either take a defensive tackle, end or even center. 

There would be plenty of top offensive tackle options if they decided they wanted to move on from left tackle Braxton Jones, even though his grades by Pro Football Focus have been rock solid for his first two years. 

That's just the point. The Bears have everything they need on offense to succeed except a passer and receivers. Williams takes care of the passer and if the receivers are gone, then the next big need is pass rusher. The rreceivers are not likely to be there because the tight end won't be taken at the top.

Taking a tight end so early rarely pays off statistically and if it does it's still coming at a cost—a team can address a far more critical position with a productive player at that point. Some positions carry more weight and those would be wide receiver, quarterback, cornerback or pass rusher.

Last year the top tight end taken was Dalton Kincaid and it wasn't until 25th. Trey McBride was taken two years ago as the top tight end at No. 55 overall. Cole Kmet was No. 1 tight end in 2020 in Round 2 and both have averaged over 50 receptions.

In 2019, T.J. Hockenson was the only tight end taken top 10 over the past five drafts whose production met his draft status but his real value to the team wasn't great enough to warrant passing on players who could be as productive at other key positions. The Lions eventually realized this when they were going to need to pay him. They traded him off while going with second-rounder Sam LaPorta, whose 86 rookie receptions was similar to Hockenson's productivity. 

Kyle Pitts was the only tight end taken since 2020 in the top 10, No. 4 overall by Atlanta, and hasn't averaged as many catches as second-rounders like Kmet or McBride. He actually hasn't even averaged as many receptions as Pat Freiermuth, who was taken in Round 2 at No. 55 during the same draft class.

So expecting Bowers to be a top eight pick, theremy forcing Odnuze to drop down to No. 9 where the Bears will pick, is just not being realistic. If a team really did take him there, shame on them.

For this reason, a mock draft made by Dan Parr, the NFL.com original content editor, draft strategy, is probably closer to what the Bears will see. Bowers didn't go ahead of No. 9 and as a result Odunze was selected before the Bears could pick.

The Bears took Alabama's edge rusher Dallas Turner.

"They can make a case that they left Round 1 with the top quarterback and top edge rusher available this year," Parr wrote.

CBS Sports mock drafter Josh Edwards found the edge rusher for them at No. 9 and also had Bowers going after the top 10. However, the pass rusher mocked to them was Laiatu Latu from UCLA.

"Montez Sweat and Latu take the worst pass rush from the first half of the 2023 season and make it one of the NFC's formidable units," Edwards wrote.

They might, if the Bears had a rush coming on the interior as well. Either way, it would be an improvement and it looks a bit more realistic than the selection of Jared Verse projected by a panel of Pro Football Focus writers in a special one-round podcast mock draft.

The PFF podcast even pointed out how Matt Eberflus likes the bigger edge rusher, but then the choice was Versa. Latu is an inch taller and six pounds heavier. It's possible the past neck injury problem Latu had would scare off the Bears and some teams, though.

The PFF mock was more realistic than the mock by Marcus Mosher of The 33rd Team. Even if you believe in sticking devoutly to the draft board, you wouldn't take Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold in Round 1 if you were the Bears. You'd be trading back.

Arnold is an excellent cornerback but with Jaylon Johnson either getting a franchise tag or a new contract, and with Tyrique Stevenson, Terell Smith and Kyler Gordon on the roster, the Bears are set at this position.

Matt Eberflus and Ryan Poles say you can never get enough cornerbacks and pass rushers. In their case, they don't have enough pass rushers so you get those first. 

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