Tyson Bagent Hasn't Reached QB Controversy

Before getting too carried away with Tyson Bagent's first career start and calling this a Bears quarterback controversy, consider the possibility it could be only a blip on the radar or even a sign of something else.

It wasn't the type of passing effort easily sustained at the National Football League level by a starter and Bagent showed he has the ability to be a backup in the league at worst.

This is because Bagent is averaging 4.6 yards for distance to target, according to Pro Football Focus. There have been 54 players throw passes this season in the NFL and this ranks 50th, ahead of only Clayton Tune, C.J. Beathard, Sam Darnold and Aaron Rodgers. None of those four passers had more than two attempts on the season so it's understandable why their distance to target was so low.

No passer who has thrown at least as many times as Bagent has averaged less than 6.4 yards distance of target. Justin Fields averages 8.4 yards and there are 12 starters who have had deeper target distance than Fields.

"He understands the play design," coach Matt Eberflus said. "He understands where it's supposed to go, and he gets rid of it in a timely fashion. Even when it was off schedule, in terms of the pressure, he was able because he's athletic enough to be able to evade, you know?

"He had that nice scramble on the first touchdown. So, he's able to do those things and that's his skill set and he did a nice job with it."

The trouble is, better defenses will adjust to that type of skill set easily and play tighter man-to-man coverage. The passes will be start becoming shorter even than the 4.6 yards downfield then. His longest pass play to a wide receiver was 15 yards. He had a 17-yard completion but it came on a screen to D'Onta Foreman.

Defenses will bunch up and jam the box. It will allow them to stop the run and short pass from that vantage point.

They got away with a game plan against a defense that has been getting burned by passing offenses doing exactly what the Bears did on Sunday. They throw short and watch the Raider miss tackles. It's happened all year.

The question is whether Bagent can expand his passing repertoire to include deeper targets. The only real example of him doing this came against the Vikings twice and he didn't connect on one while the other was the interception when he couldn't get off an unimpeded throw.

Matt Eberflus seems to think he can.

"No question. No question," Eberflus said, even though there must be plenty of questions about this. "Yeah, he's a rhythm and timing passer, you know, and he's got all the ability to do all those things."

If there's no question he has the arm to do that, then why wasn't he allowed to throw the last pass of the first half, the Hail Mary?

The real question everyone seems to have, no matter how premature, is if Bagent could be a QB to take the starting job from Fields?

Sunday night's matchup against the Chargers can show whether Bagent can crank it up a notch, but it probably won't show whether he could be a Brock Purdy 2.0 or circa 2023.

The Chargers pass defense is susceptible to being burned through the air.

They rank last in the NFL against the pass and it's not simply because they're very good against the run (11th). They haven't faced an unusually small number of rushing attempts. It's easy to conclude teams keep passing on them because they can't run on them. But this isn't the case. Teams are passing on the Chargers because they succeed at passing on them. The Chargers rank 31st in net yards allowed per pass attempt.

And it's not easy to be so bad against the pass when you've got Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa rushing the passer off the edge, but the Chargers defense has accomplished this.

So this is an opponent even a dink-and-dunk passer should be able to hurt through the air, provided they can keep the edge rushers at bay.

Former Bears coach Dave Wannstedt told WSCR's Mike Mulligan and David Haugh on Tuesday that Bagent should be allowed to keep the job if he can play another great game against the Chargers.

"If Tyson goes out and plays well and we beat the Chargers this week I would stay with him as the starter," Wannstedt said, sounding a little too like he's still coaching the team, which should frighten Bears fans. "I would not bring Fields back the next week. I would let Tyson go another week."

The real measure of Bagent's ability to throw downfield would be to go against the Saints in two weeks and do it, if he is still playing then. The Saints are fourth against the pass and fifth in net yards allowed per pass attempt. Beat them by throwing the ball, and you've really proven something.

This week is more like another step up from what Bagent faced last week. The final step to prove himself would be the third step.

The Bears have won consecutive games with Fields as quarterback before. It's been a long time but he did it in his first first two starts as the official starter in 2021. If Bagent does it three times, then the QB controversy can begin.

Bagent was accurate but it's not hard to be accurate at 4.6 yards on targets. Do this against the Chargers and Saints on the road and display a range of ability to adjust your game and then they can start talking about him taking the starting job from Fields. Then, you have a quarterback controversy.

From what Bagent has shown so far, he's a good player to have available as a backup because he plays within himself and backups need to do this. They don't get you beat, and give your defense a chance to win.

This hasn't really been the Bears' problem, though. They've needed a successful starter, and unless it's Bagent or Fields somehow reverses his trend of inconsistency, then the direction of the upcoming draft seems obvious.

QB Starting Debuts

Peyton Manning 21-of-37, 302 yards, 1 TD, 3 INTs, 24-15 loss

Tom Brady 13-of-23, 168 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 44-13 win

Patrick Mahomes 22-of-35, 284 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 27-24 win

Drew Brees 15-of-19, 160 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs, 34-6 win

Trevor Lawrence 28-of-51, 332 yards, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 37-21 loss

Jalen Hurts 17-of-30, 167 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 24-21 win

Justin Herbert 22-of-33, 311 yardsd, 1 TD, 1 INT, 23-20 loss

Jared Goff 17-of-31, 134 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 14-10 loss

Kirk Cousins 26-of-37, 329 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 38-21 win

Russell Wilson 18-of-34, 153 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20-16 loss

Josh Allen 18-of-33, 245 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 31-20 loss

Bears Starting Debuts

Tyson Bagent 21-of-29, 161 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, 30-12 win

Justin Fields 6-of-20, 68 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, 26-6 loss

Jim McMahon 12-of-22, 131 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 10-0 loss

Doug Flutie 8-of-14, 152 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 24-10 win

Jim Harbaugh 11-of-30, 108 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs, 23-3 loss

Cade McNown 17-of-33, 255 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT, 20-16 loss

Mitchell Trubisky 12-of-25, 128 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 20-17 loss

Rex Grossman 13-of-30, 157 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INT, 13-10 win

Craig Krenzel 13-of-25, 168 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 23-13 win

Kyle Orton 15-of-28, 141 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 9-7 loss

Moses Moreno 18-of-41, 153 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT, 31-17 loss

Caleb Hanie 18-of-36, 254 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs, 25-20 loss

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