Bear Digest

What It Could Take for Bears to Acquire Deshaun Watson

Sacrificing the future for Deshaun Watson doesn't begin to describe what the Chicago Bears would need to do in order to make a trade with Houston, which doesn't want to deal its QB anyway.
Gene Chamberlain|
What It Could Take for Bears to Acquire Deshaun Watson
What It Could Take for Bears to Acquire Deshaun Watson

For some reason, even when a general manager says Deshaun Watson won't be traded there is a belief by many the trade is in the works.

No one takes anyone's word as bond these days.

"Organizationally, just want to reiterate our commitment to Deshaun Watson," new Texans GM Nick Caserio said on Friday. "He's had a great impact on this organization, a great impact on a lot of people, a great impact on this team. And we look forward to the opportunity to spend more time with him here this spring once we get started.

"And, you know, we have zero interest in trading the player. We have a great plan, a great vision for him and for this team and his role on our team."

For some reason this is doubted, possibly because later when asked about the possible timeline for a decision whether to trade Watson he said, "Our timeline is we're a one-day-at-a-time organization."

Whatever that means.

The answer made no sense in response to a question which made no sense, because they'd just been told he wasn't being traded.

Bears fans on social media seem fairly convinced they're still in the hunt, fueled by analysts, bloggers and pundits who simply want this to continue for click bait.

Trading for Watson would be incredibly difficult, if the Texans really were foolish enough to let Watson tell them what to do. Watson has no standing in this decision whatsoever because he signed a long-term contract. It isn't the NBA. All he can do to force a trade is sit out and cost himself millions of dollars and a year of play, which history has shown he will never recoup.

None of this trade talk even takes into account the salary cap ramifications in which the existing contract's bonus money instantly gets applied against his current team's cap space.

So if a deal can't be entirely discounted, it would really need to be something to sweep the Texans off their feet.

The Bears have little to sweep with, but the educated guess here is at least all of their first-round draft picks through 2024 and probably a couple other picks, a second and a third.

Considering where the Bears pick this year, the second and third would need to be in this year's draft. To sum it up, 1-2-3 from this year, then first-rounders in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

This might sound outlandish, but it could even be more.

There really is no precedent for a trade like this of one of the league's proven best quarterbacks and all you can do is rely on past trades and what other teams could offer as a guideline.

About the closest history has to offer would be the trades of John Elway, John Hadl and Jay Cutler.

Elway had just been drafted, so no one could be sure of his abilities. The Broncos gave the Colts guard Chris Hinton and a backup QB in the deal instead of a draft pick, so it somewhat muddies up the comparison. Plain and simple, the Broncos stole Elway by giving up only their first pick (Hinton at No. 4), backup QB Mark Herrmann and a first-round pick for the next year, 1984. Elway hadn't signed a contract or played a down yet so it was an easier deal to execute and easier for him to force the trade. The Colts should have demanded more but hindsight is better than 20-20 decades later.

The Hadl deal was a complete joke. The Packers were so desperate coach Dan Devine agreed to give up a first, second and third in 1975 and a first and second in 1976 for a 34-year-old, out-of-shape passer who would play only 22 games before retiring. Fans didn't really shoot Devine's dog for this, as lore has it—his dog was allowed to run loose and was raiding a nearby farmer's chicken coop to deserve this. Yet, there were many in Cheeseland who wanted something like this for their coach.

So we get to the Cutler trade 12 years ago this April. 

In many ways it really is more like a possible Watson trade. It's a player at the same position, at exactly the same age and with only one year less experience than Watson. It's two disgruntled players demanding trades. 

The difference is Cutler never showed anything close to the potential for greatness and had accomplished virtually nothing compared to Watson, who led the league in passing yards and yards per attempt last year and has never had a season's passer rating below 98. The only thing Cutler ever led the league in besides being mocked was interceptions or sacks taken, except for one year near the end of his career when he had four fourth-quarter comeback wins to go with only two other wins that year.

The Bears gave up a pair of firsts, Kyle Orton and a third-rounder for Cutler and a fifth. So the compensation would need to be much more for Watson.

The Bears gave up two firsts, a third and a sixth to get Khalil Mack and a second-rounder. It would need to be much more than this because we're talking about a top, proven quarterback and not a pass rusher who impacts play far less and is also more likely to have a longer career.

The only compensation packages close would be the Herschel Walker or Ricky Williams trades, but those were running backs in an era when running backs carried far more value than now. So they still didn't pack value close to this player.

The reason for a first, second and third this year is because the Bears don't have two first-round picks to deal from this year's draft, like other interested parties such as the Jets and Colts, or even Jacksonville if it wanted Watson instead of Trevor Lawrence. It's also going to take more than those two first-round picks this year from those teams to get Watson.

So all of this said, it may take even more still to get Watson depending on how far the opposition is willing to go to get a deal done.

Without first-round picks for six years—remember, the Bears haven't had a first since 2018 due to the Mack deal—and really anything in Rounds 1-3 this year, the Bears will leave themselves open to tremendous roster decay.

The acquisition of a contract like Watson's could immediately force the cash-strapped Bears into cutting several valuable players and they would not even be able to think about retaining Allen Robinson II.

Watson would be back where he was in Houston, with a team lacking much talent except there would be no way to provide him with help until he was in his 30s.

Other than that, a trade for Watson is a fine thought for everyone involved.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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