Domino Effect for 2023 Bears Plans?

Analysis: Bears plans now for using players now are more apparent but one or more of them failing might take down the entire project.

With all due respect to Robert Burns and John Steinbeck, the best laid plans of football coaches often go awry.

More became known over the course of rookie minicamp and the draft from Bears coaches about how they plan to implement alterations in personnel and scheme.

Some seem solid, like the use of Tremaine Edmunds in the Brian Urlacher middle linebacker role within the Tampa-2 scheme, and T.J. Edwards being the weakside.

Others are not so convincing.

Still others are not yet entirely apparent but hold with them the posssibility for disaster.

Here's what could go wrong with what the Bears are planning for 2023.

5. Eddie Jackson Injury

When they lost Eddie Jackson last year in the 11th game, the pass defense took an even sharper turn for the depths. They went into the Week 11 game with the Jets ninth in the NFL against the pass, had never been worse than 10th through the first 10 games, and Jackson suffered the season-ending foot injury. They descended all the way to 18th against the pass at season's end without Jackson available.

Sure, there were other factors, like they lost cornerbacks each week for varying periods, but they also had DeAndre Houston-Carson as a backup safety then. They don't have veteran safety backups now. Lose Jackson now, and what will they be left with in the deep secondary? Jaquan Brisker had a good rookie year but hardly seems ready to take over the leadership role in the deep safety spot. Elijah Hicks displayed good tackling technique but never really proved himself in coverage by being targeted only seven times on the year. He gave up two touchdown passes on seven of those targets, according to Sportradar.

And their draft addition was the 258th pick of the draft, Stanford's Kendall Williamson. During weekend rookie minicamp Williamson displayed nice ability to make plays on the ball and made an interception with an excellent return. He seems to have more speed than on the field than the 4.58 the pro day 40 timers said, as he easily caught up with running back Roschon Johnson a couple of times on plays, one a run and the other a pass. But relying on inexperience at safety is often a route to disaster in the NFL, particularly when your pass rush hasn't proven to be able to reach the quarterback.

4. Inexperience Drags Down O-Line

There is reason for optimism after Darnell Wright was drafted, an addition on the line regarded universally as a first-rounder who also happens to play the position they drafted him to play. So often it's a tackle being a guard or a left tackle being a right tackle but in this case it's a right tackle being a right tackle.

However, Wright has no experience. They've also moved Teven Jenkins to left guard and he hasn't played there in the NFL. Bears line coach Chris Morgan mentioned to reporters how Jenkins has played left guard before in college and it's not too big of a leap to move him to that side. Jenkins is doing it willingly, even enthusiastically it seems.

However, his experience in college at the position ended after his freshman year. All of his plays at Oklahoma State in his final three seasons came at left tackle or right tackle and the great majority of those at right tackle.

Backing him up at left tackle is Lucas Patrick, who really didn't show the Bears anything except being an injury victim last year.

Another potential problem is now that they've moved Cody Whitehair back to center, they're lining up an inexperienced left guard in Jenkins next to left tackle Braxton Jones. While Jones had a very good rookie year, he also had publicly self-diagnosed weaknesses like the bull rush. As a player with one year of experience, it doesn't seem the best situation to have him and Jenkins lined up side by side. On the other side, at least veteran Nate Davis is lining up alongside right tackle Wright.

3. No Defensive End Is Added

The Bears are boldly striking out into the NFL offseason yet without a pass-rushing threat at end.

DeMarcus Walker had one out of six seasons with more than 4 1/2 sacks. Rasheem Green once in five seasons had more than four sacks. Neither ever had more than seven. Trevis Gipson had seven once but just three lsat year as he goes into a contract year. Dominique Robinson as a rookie had no sacks after his first NFL game.

They're going to rely on a tackle-generated pass rush.

"So I really believe when you have a nice guy who can dent the pocket from the inside, I really think that pressure is felt right away, because they're closer to the quarterback," coach Matt Eberflus said. "And I think it frees up the guys, gives them one-on-ones on the outside when you have two guys in there that can really do that."

The assumption is that with about $30 million in efective cap space left, minus about what they need for signing their rookies, they can find one edge rusher from a small group of unsigned free agents who can generate edge heat on obvious passing downs.

There has been talk the Jets might release Carl Lawson, the former Bengals edge rusher, but he has only a slightly better record for finishing pass rushes by putting QBs on the ground than both Walker and Green.

If they don't sign a player like Jadeveon Clowney, Frank Clark or Yannick Ngakoue, then they might be left without a real edge threat. This might work against run-heavy teams but teams on their schedule like Kansas City, the L.A. Chargers or even the Vikings could dice up a defense without an edge rush.

Kingsley Enagabre gets pressure off the edge forcing the QB up into a sack for Zacch Pickens pic.twitter.com/K4yM1GmBUq

— Tyler Browning (@DiabeticTyler) October 3, 2021

2. Defensive Tackle Rush Never Materializes

Part of their explanation for not adding an edge rusher is they hope to get the pressure from inside to force QBs to move out toward their edges, and make those player better.

The double teams will have to be applied inside and it leaves outside rushers one on one.

The question, of course, is whether they actually have inside rushers to command double teams.

Justin Jones showed an ability to penetrate and disrupt runs as a three technique last year with 12 tackles for loss, but also needs to be more gap sound like all the Bears linemen do.

Second-round pick Gervon Dexter is coming from a two-gap scheme and reacted more than he attacked. They're projecting an awful lot from him to anticipate he'll be able to pick up as an attacking defensive tackle where he left off when Florida used more of a one-gap scheme prior to his final year. Third-round pick Zacch Pickens could pick up some of the slack if Dexter can't get it done but as a rookie he'll also have his own adjustment period to make.

"When you have a dominating force inside of there, or when you have two really good players in there, that helps you in a lot of ways," Eberflus said. "That helps you in your run defense, that helps you in your pass rush right up the middle there. So we're enthused by having those guys in there."

So they're counting on both rookie defensive linemen to be at higher levels, but defensive coordinator Alan Williams pointed out both are behind Justin Jones. And they're counting on two picks who weren't first-rounders to take on a big responsibility.

At last look, Jones wasn't in line for the Pro Bowl last year in his first season playing three technique in this type of system, so they're all going to have a lot to prove.

Florida IDL Gervon Dexter maintaining a presence in both A-Gaps to make this tackle at the LOS pic.twitter.com/30ujrP7ZEZ

— Nick Falato (@nickfalato) April 24, 2023

1. Luke Getsy Goes Matt Nagy on Justin Fields

Remember the "200-level" offense Nagy tried to implement in 2019 after Mitchell Trubisky in 2018 improved enough in his second season to lead the Bears within a double doink of their first playoff win since 2010? Nagy was advancing things for his young quarterback and expected Trubisky to take those strides along with him in this tricked-up offense. Trubisky wasn't capable, Nagy's offense was a joke the next three years and he got fired.

Getsy obviously won't run exactly the same offense as last year because no coordinator keeps things exactly the same. It would be too easy for their opponents. However, they can't get too carried away with change after Justin Fields' rapid progress from Week 5 through the end of the season.

Fields finally gets the chance to be in the same offense for the first time since his last year at Ohio State and only the second time since he was a college freshman.

It sounds as if the goal with the passing game is more getting it established rather than tricking it up in Year 2. Coach Matt Eberflus said timing is the goal.

"Just the rhythm and timing of it, of the pass game," he said. "Obviously the passing game is the priority. We ran the ball very well, but we all know we've got to improve in the passing game.

"Part of that is rhythm and timing. That's the footwork with Justin. He's been working on that really, really good. In terms of the quick pass, dropback pass, movement pass, and he's really made some big strides in that area coming in so far on his own and now coming into the Phase Two, that first week. That’s really about it."

They need to give him a chance by not getting too carried away with a Getsy 200-level of offense.

The goal should be building on a quarterback's success and not showing everyone what a genius the coach or in this case the offensive coordinator is.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven