Shane Waldron's Offense Had Its Unique Issues

The fist pumping and back slapping over the hiring of Shane Waldron as Bears offensive coordinator has subsided.

Now comes the realization there is a difficult task ahead and Waldron didn't have all the answers in Seattle. So, whether he can solve the problems the Bears have on offense must be questioned.

In fact, by looking at the numbers it's easy to deduce the Bears have merely traded in their own problems for someone else's.

The real answer might lie in personnel, at least as much as coaching.

Waldron's Explosive Attack

Bears coach Matt Eberflus sought more big plays. This was his description for what he sought in an offensive coordinator.

"You have to be able to have the innovation to really look at the players that you have and be able to help enhance and put those guys in position to succeed and to get explosives and to move the ball down the field," Eberflus said.

Waldron's Seahawks did have a more explosive offense in terms of creating bigger gains and they averaged 5.5 yards a play, good for 11th, while the Bears were well down in 23rd at 5.0 yards a play. Seattle also averaged 5.87 yards on first downs, good for sixth overall. This is a very key statistic because it sets teams up better to move the chains.

In the running game, Seattle was tied for seventh in rushes of 20 yards or longer, and in the passing game the Seahawks were ninth in completions of 20 yards or more. With DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Tyler Lockett as wide receivers, it's easy to see how they could make the top 10 in longer completions.

The Bears are obviously hoping Waldron's approach can get them up and down the field faster.

Last year the Bears were tied for 20th in passing gains of 20 yards or more while Seattle was tied for ninth with the Packers at 56 passes of 20 yards or more.

The Bears were able to create a little more separation to get yards after the catch than they had the previous season when they were last in the league at YAC. They were 27th this year at 1,721 but Seattle was 11th at 2,019.

Yet, for all of Seattle's big plays and advantages on first down, they had only four more passing touchdowns (23) than the Bears (19).

The Seahawks passing game was unable to break into the top 10 in passing yards and seven of the top 10 passing teams made the playoffs.

The Bears offense was 20th in first downs with 322 but Waldron's offense in Seattle was even worse at 23rd with 317.

The overall effect of the Seattle offense was to finish one place behind the Bears and 5 yards behind them in yards gained (5,495).

Honest opinion

If #Bears go under .500 but the offense performs well (like top 10 well) I think they promote Shane Waldron to HC… I think that’s Ryan Poles’ contingency plan
— Jake (@Jake_B30) January 25, 2024

They finished only one spot and four points ahead of the Bears in scoring with 364 points, 17th overall.

The Bears Run Better

One thing the Bears did well throughout Getsy's time in Chicago was run, and they were second last year, but it's often said the rushing attempts are more important than the rushing yards.

Seattle's offense was next to last in the league in rushing attempts with 382. How important is this? Only two of the teams in the bottom 10 for rushing attempts made the playoffs, the Buccaneers and the Chiefs.

The rushing yards do make a difference even if a team doesn't necessarily have to lead the league. Only two of the bottom 10 teams in rushing yards made the playoffs, those same two who were in the bottom 10 for rushing attempts.

And gaining yards on the ground isn't insignificant. The Bears were a top 10 rushing team and seven of the top 11 rushing teams made the playoffs.

Seattle finished 24th in rushing first downs with 93 and that put them in the bottom 10. Only two of the bottom 10 teams at this made the playoffs. Tampa Bay and Houston.

There is a big-gain element to rushing but Seattle wasn't better than the Bears at this. They both had the same number of runs 20 yards or longer (13).

Situational Football

So much of football is situational, Eberflus has often reminded in the past. In many of the key situational statistics, the Bears offense under Luke Getsy was superior to Seattle's.

Or, at least Justin Fields' scrambling helped them achieve better numbers.

The Seahawks were only 23rd in third-down efficiency at 36.2%, far worse than the Bears. Their offense was 12th overall (41.2%).

The Bears offense was 13th at getting into the end zone (57.1%) from within the red zone but the Seahawks were only 25th (48.1%).

So it would seem the Bears are trading for an offense that can get them up and down the field better in the passing game but struggles scoring once it does this.

And this is progress?

The Big Question

When you add all of this up, the better Bears rushing game with Waldron's bigger plays in the passing game, a Bears offense already better in the red zone and on third down and almost as good at creating passing yards and passing TDs, the change in coordinators seems curious.

It really does sound like by switching to what Waldron's offense does well, they could be repairing a few problems but causing others.

They have to hope their personnel makes the difference, but this doesn't seem possible when comparing Seattle's wide receiver group to the one the Bears currently have. The Bears didn't have Metcalf, Lockett and Smith-Njigba at wide receiver. They had DJ Moore and no one else at wideout with more than 31 catches.

The key will be who the quarterback is, and who is actually throwing the ball.

A quarterback getting the ball out faster and to more open receivers would rate a better chance of completing those quicker drives with scores.

Fields obviously didn't get the ball out in the Bears offense fast enough to elevate the passing game in Getsy's offense. NextGen Stats said he got it out slower than anyone in the league at 3.22 seconds. Yet Seattle had problems scoring in Waldron's offense with Geno Smith getting it out in 2.84 seconds.

Unless the quarterback changes for the Bears or he suddenly starts getting the ball out much faster, it looks entirely possible they've simply swapped out their own problems for someone else's.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven