Bears Offense Enables Justin Fields

The projections have all long since been made and rankings came down.

It's safe to say most fantasy projections of the coming season for Bears quarterback Justin Fields are off in the passing category, if not the running category.

Those projections make it look like they've all sat in a room and copied off of each other. And they'll all be wrong.

The consensus average for passing yards by Fields seems to have landed at 2,850 yards. NFL.com had him at 2,867.1. Pro Football Focus had him at 2,841.4 and The Ringer at 2,858.

Fantasy sites have a little more regard for him but still not based on reality. Fanduel, for instance, has him at 2,954 yards, but with a little more realistic touchdown pass output of 22.4. NFL.com had him at 17 TDs, which was what he had last year in his first season within this offense, without viable receivers much of the season and with two games lost to injury. Then you had PFF coming in at 13.5 TD passes. They must really have something against him to project he'll throw 3.5 fewer TD passes now that he has receivers, unless they're projecting injuries.

All of these numbers are way off, just like the comments of Craig Ellenport, Sports Illustrated fantasy writer who said Fields will be a "fantasy bust."

"I don't think his passing numbers get much better and if he carries the ball 10 times a game like he did last year, there's a decent chance he gets hurt," Ellenport wrote.

If Fields did carry 10 times a game again, he actually might get hurt. That's why the Bears don't plan for this. They've barely practiced Fields run plays. They're throwing the ball in games and practice.

They didn't start out last year planning to run him as much and only did because he had no help on offense.

Projections Weight 2022 Too Heavily

The problem Ellenport has is the same one all fantasy projections have.

They are all replaying Fields' 2022 overall stats. This isn't the same team around Fields in terms of personnel or experience. It's 2023. Turn your calendar.

Fields, over his final 11 games, was a different player last year, anyway. Toss out the first six games.

If he had played the same way in the first six games as the last 11, he would have had 2,737 passing yards. That's about what these statistical wizards are expecting this year.

So they're saying he'll be no better than he was at the end of last year as a passer, or 100 to 200 yards better for the season than the pace he was at when he was playing well at the end of last year.

He's not coming into this season trying to learn the offense at the beginning. He's not coming in without receivers. And the offensive line should be much better than one that got him sacked at a rate of three a game or 51 times for a season over those last 11 games. The actual stats were 55 times, so they didn't improve much at blocking for him while he improved as a passer with a 92..

The Bears were 30th in the NFL in offensive plays run last year at 58.4. If they simply improve to the middle of the pack they'll have about six more plays a game. That's six extra plays that could be passes by Fields and even more yardage.

This isn't the same offense and Luke Getsy's idea of an offense with better weapons is not to run the same attack. It's to pass the ball. His concept is not overusing Fields as a runner or even running the ball as much as they did last year. The Bears passed only 43.8% of tthe time last year. Not only was that total last in the league, it was the lowest total by any NFL team since 2004.

They're going to throw it far more than they did last year because they have the weapons to do it.

Fields' Receivers Last Year Are Irrelevant

Most of the projections for his receivers are off because they're not being realistic with what Moore and Darnell Mooney can do for Fields. His connection with Mooney is real. The same is true about how they've underestimated what two pass-catching tight ends can do for him with Robert Tonyan Jr. added.

Last year his leading wide receiver was Mooney at 40 catches, 493 yards, two touchdowns and 12 games played. His second-leading wide receiver was Equanimeous St. Brown at 323 yards for 21 catches.

NFL.com, PFF and The Ringer have minimum figures of 53 catches for Moore this year as the leading receiver, with a minimum of 758 yards.

That would be fewer catches and yards than Moore made in his worst year, as a rookie, and far less than he had the rest of his career in Carolina playing with poor quarterbacks.

But taken at the ridiculous total of 53 catches, that's still 13 more catches for Fields' No. 1 wide receiver than last year's No. 1 wide receiver had.

Mooney is projected between 46 and 57 catches and 547 to 786 yards. The 46 sounds low because it's basically what he had last year before going out for the season in Week 12. Now Mooney has Moore drawing coverage away. Even if he did finish with 46 catches, that's 25 more than Fields' second-best wide receiver made last year.

Figure in Chase Claypool at somewhere around 40 catches, according to these projections. The third wide receiver last year was Dante Pettis with 19 catches. That's about half what's being projected for Claypool.

Those numbers don't add up to a season when Fields throws for 2,800 yards. It looks like something much bigger, even higher than the 2,954 yard Fanduel projected for him.

They're all reliving the 2022 season with better receivers, better blocking, a more experienced Fields and an offense that figures to have more plays per game. The end projections come up well short he should get, and they look like the stats he had for his improved 11-game stretch last year made with a sub-par offense and personnel.

This is 2023. The cast of top three receivers, top tight ends has changed and Fields has changed for the better as a passer with better knowledge of his offense.

Expect something bigger, along the lines of the passing figures posted by BearDigest earlier this summer and re-posted here.

Those were made looking to this season, the team and not merely the past.

Justin Fields at a Glance

Vitals: 6-foot-3, 228 pounds, third season.

Career: 351 of 588 passing for 4,112 yards, 59.7% completions with 24 TDs, 21 INTs, 79.7 passer rating; 232 rushing attempts, 1,563 yards, 10 TDs, 6.7 yards per carry.

2022: 192 completions in 318 passes, 2,242 yards, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 85.2 passer rating; 160 rushes for 1,143 yards and 8 TDs, 7.1 yards per carry.

The Number: 1. Only once in his last 11 starts has Fields gone without a TD pass. In his first 14 starts he did it seven times.

2023 FanNation Projection: 317 completions in 488 passes, 64.9% accuracy, 3,471 yards, 7.1 yards per attempt, 26 TDs, 13 INTs, 93.4 passer rating; 135 rushes, 907 yards rushing, 6.9 yards per rush, 8 TDs.

Links to Other Bears Fantasy Projections

DJ MOORE FANNATION FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTION FOR 2023

DARNELL MOONEY FANNATION FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTION FOR 2023

KHALIL HERBERT FANNATION FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTION FOR 2023

COLE KMET FANNATION FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTION FOR 2023

CHASE CLAYPOOL FANNATION FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTION FOR 2023

D'ONTA FOREMAN FANNATION FANTASY FOOTBALL PROJECTION FOR 2023

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven