Nick Foles Returns Deep Ball to Chicago Bears Offense

The biggest criticism of Mitchell Trubisky by analysts over his career has been his downfield passing.

It's the reason he was ranked 38th by Chris Simms. Pro Football Focus ranked him 27th in the league last year with a completion rate on deep throws—20 yards or longer —at 34.4%.

It is difficult to dispute Trubisky's problems considering how the passing game seemed to make gains in such small increments over the past few years. The Bears were dead last in the league in 2019 at 5.3 net yards per attempt.

Then came the surprising part of PFF's analysis on the Bears quarterbacks situation.

"Ultimately, it's just another part of Trubisky's game that has likely cost him the starting job in favor of Nick Foles, whose numbers last season may have been even worse than Trubisky's," PFF wrote.

While Foles' overall numbers indicated last year's struggles, he played only in four games and essentially only in three because he lasted 11 plays into the season opener before a broken collarbone. He played in an offense not necessarily conducive to his skills, at least not the Andy Reid offense in which he's excelled. He tried picking up a lost season in the second half with a team already in a downward spiral.

What the Bears are actually getting in Foles is not the player PFF graded from last year, but one who figures to be in a situation where he thrives. PFF has already admitted as much in their past but has apparently forgotten.

In 2017 the PFF analysis of Foles was quite different while trying to determine if he could lead the Eagles once Carson Wentz went down with an injury.

"His best season came back in 2013 under Chip Kelly in an offense that used a lot of RPOs and schemed to help his play," PFF wrote. "His PFF grade was 80.9 overall, and 81.8 as a passer, but his passer rating that year was a monstrous 117.9. That disconnect between passer rating and PFF grade is actually good news for the Eagles, because it shows that Foles has a history of being productive in the right system without actually playing fantastic football to get it."

What's different now about the system than what he had with the Eagles and earlier with the Eagles and then also in Kansas City?

Not much. Personnel is different, sure, but they were talking system here and not personnel.

The truth is, Foles did not have the chance to put up good numbers last year due to injury and scheme and the only reason to think this could repeat is lack of preparation time.

Yet, this is one area where Foles has never struggled in this offense. He has a Super Bowl ring to prove it.

Criticizing Foles' deep passing might seem valid at first glance with his so-so 7.0 career-yards-per-pass attempted, but this includes last year and 2015 with the Rams when he wasn't in the Andy Reid style of system.

It also includes the 2012 season when he was but was merely a rookie starting six games off the bench. He's been a strong 7.5 yards per attempt otherwise.

Can Foles throw the deep ball? Listen to what his former Eagles offensive coordinator, Colts coach Frank Reich, told John Shipley of Jaguar Report last year.

"He's elite in throwing the ball down the field as a deep passer," Reich said. "He's at the top."

If this wasn't definitive enough: "Take all the guys that throw a great deep ball—he's in there in that discussion.

"He can throw from every arm angle. He has a unique way—it's the point guard in him—he was a very good basketball player, point guard."

Bears quarterbacks coach John DeFilippo, his QB coach with the Eagles and offensive coordinator with Jacksonville, said the same thing.

"No. 1, I think his arm talent, obviously, God-given arm talent is fantastic," DeFilippo told Shipley.

So if they can complete more deep balls with Foles, a team averaging near the bottom of the league in yards after the catch the last two seasons stands to improve here as defenses back off to protect deep.

So much can open up in this scenario.

First Foles has to beat out Trubisky, but if his arm strength and accuracy downfield are at the level coaches have seen then the Bears' quarterback prospects could look far different than the "experts" have projected for this season.

The same could happen if Trubisky actually won as starter, if he suddenly showed better ability to read defenses and if he suddenly developed accuracy on deep throws.

That's a lot of ifs.

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