Bear Digest

The obvious way Ryan Poles and Ben Johnson go first in Bears draft

Analysis: The laws of supply and demand greatly impact the draft and free agency every year but this year GM Ryan Poles and Ben Johnson view their need situation as favorable.
Gene Chamberlain|
Keeping Caleb Williams properly protected becomes a top priority in the draft and free agency based on supply and demand.
Keeping Caleb Williams properly protected becomes a top priority in the draft and free agency based on supply and demand. | Talia Sprague-Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

No team is going to tip their hand in free agency and the draft.

In the Bears' case, they don't really need to worry about this because their needs are practically painted in 10-foot high letters all over the front of Halas Hall. They badly need linemen on both sides of the football and believe they'll be able to address it both in the draft and free agency.

Building the team each offseason in the draft and free agency becomes a blend of needs, supply and demand, but also timing.

"I've talked about that before; you can have philosophical beliefs in how you want to build a football team and how you prioritize," GM Ryan Poles said. "But the supply has to match the needs, and the opportunities have to present themselves at the right time."

It's apparent from their combine comments how Poles and Johnson see the talent supply in the draft fitting perfectly for what they want to do.

"We feel really good about free agency and the draft and in how the supply matches up with our demand," coach Ben Johnson said.

For the Bears, this logically looks then to be offensive lineman first and then defensive line help afterward and not vice versa. This can change if they're unable to get what they want in free agency, but not necessarily. 

Either way, it's apparent Poles has changed his view on his team's need for pass rushers because he did little in past drafts to address this beyond drafting defensive tackle Gervon Dexter in the second round. He'll say he hasn't changed his view, but his past actions and talk now indicate otherwise.

It should work for the Bears to find an offensive lineman and then pass rushers because of supply and demand.

The supply in the draft favors the pass rushers.

"Yeah, it looks like the defense is fully loaded here," Chiefs coach Andy Reid said at the combine. "Yeah. I mean, there are a lot of defensive ... it looks like a defensive strong draft.

"Not that they're not going to be some great offensive guys, but it really looks like it's strong on the defensive side."

Reid called the cornerbacks a deep group, but added, "...and the defensive line group is really deep, so hopefully we can add to our roster for sure at some point in the draft."

Lions GM Brad Holmes and assistant GM Ray Agnew arrived at the same conclusion about the defensive line.

"This (draft) here, me and Ray Agnew were just kind of looking at the totality of just, yeah, it's a lot deeper than what we can remember at least in the past couple of years and that's both inside and out (on the line), for sure," he said.

Pro Football Focus has labeled the defensive ends as good overall and the tackle supply as great. On the other hand, the tackle supply on offense is good and interior line supply is called "scarce."

The NFL Mock Draft Data Base's big board has 30 defensive linemen currently graded in the top 100 picks. They have only 17 offensive linemen there,

When numbers are less at one spot, and the Bears have an early pick at No. 10, but there is great depth of talent on the defensive side, the logic is simple.

Take what's scarce first if it's good enough, and then rely on the depth of talent in Rounds 2 and 3 or even Day 3. Translated: Go first for the sure offensive lineman first because the supply of good talent will be gone sooner. Then come back for the pass rushers in Round 2 and/or Round 3.

It was the logic behind Pro Football Focus' seven-round mock draft, which had the Bears taking Ohio State offensive lineman Josh Simmons in Round 1 and then Mississippi edge rusher Princely Umanmielen in Round 2 at 39.

If the Bears take a different route than offensive line first, defensive line next in this draft, it's because they've so adequately supplied one or the other in free agency that they don't need to worry in the draft.

Then again, when a team wants to build through the draft like the Bears and most NFL teams do, then you can always draft the same position after free agency.

"I would argue and say if you have a good pass rusher in free agency and draft a good pass rusher you can't have enough good ones," Poles said. "I think we all watched that in the last game of the season (Super Bowl) and that proves to be true.

"You want to see how you can put the puzzle together where you can fill all the needs perfectly. Sometimes that works out, sometime that doesn't."

It works out this year for drafting offensive line first, then the defensive line. It's all about the line of scrimmage for the Bears.

More Chicago Bears News

X: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.