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One Bears Number More Critical Than 4,000 Caleb Williams Passing Yards

Everyone talks about Caleb Williams hitting the never-attained Bears yardage total but one other simple stat will determine their offensive success.
Gene Chamberlain|
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams runs play-action with a fake to D'andre Swift against the Eagles last year.
Bears quarterback Caleb Williams runs play-action with a fake to D'andre Swift against the Eagles last year. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

Players and coaches think about numbers differently than fans do, and certainly different than fantasy football owners.

Bears quarterback Caleb Williams gave a unique perspective on improving passing accuracy a year after he completed only 58.1% after coach Ben Johnson targeted 70% for a goal.

"Just speaking on completions, if you go one of 1-of-1 27 times, you're 27 for 27, you're not thinking about going 27 for 27," Williams said at minicamp. "You’re thinking about that one play, that one pass, or whatever the case may be."

Johnson probably would have been happy with 16 of 27 last year because it would have been a higher percentage (59%) than his QB completed.

The Bears chose not to discuss a percentage target for this year the way they did last year, although it could still come out in training camp.

It's not even the most important number for them on offense, although 70% could make things much easier for them.

Who needs 4,000 yards?

NFL.com fantasy football writer Matt Okada called 4,000 yards the key number for the Bears this season. That's low-hanging fruit. The Bears have never had a 4,000-yard passer and everyone targets this but it's a non-essential number. Jared Goff went over 4,500 yards last year and Detroit failed to make the playoffs.

It's not even 30 touchdown passes, although this might be more of a gauge for team success. The Bears are the only team never to get at least 30 TD passes, as well. No one talks about this but it's more critical than yardage.

TD passes aren't even critical. Joe Burrow threw for 43 touchdowns and almost 5,000 yards in 2024 and the Bengals failed to make the playoffs.

The key number for Ben Johnson's offense should be 2,300, as in rushing yards.

The Bears' offense under Johnson thrives on rushing the ball and play-action passing. Any team can drop back and complete passes for yards in situations when they're losing in games. They can even complete a ton of touchdown passes against soft coverage while piling up losses.

When Goff ran Johnson's offense in Detroit in 2022, he threw for 4,438 yards and they failed to make the playoffs. Last year Johnson had left and the Lions QB had 4,564 yards passing with 34 TDs, and they failed to make the playoffs.

What the rushing meant for Bears

The Bears improved their rushing total last year from 1,734 yards to 2,456 and finished third in rushing. It made opponents respect play-action passing and Williams was able to lead seven comeback wins even with 58.1% completion and only 6.9 yards per attempt. It helped their passing EPA to increase, as well, and Johnson loves that number.

If the Bears run for at least 2,300 yards again with their two-headed rushing game of Kyle Monangai and D'Andre Swift, while they have a quarterback who can run but is always looking upfield to throw it on the run, it's a good sign for a productive offense.

The completion percentage will naturally come up as Williams feels more comfortable with the attack in his third year. The yardage will be higher because the running game will allow him time to complete more passes downfield or throw shorter to backs, tight ends or wideouts who are more open and hauling it in while in stride.

It doesn't necessarily need to be two 1,000-yard rushers, although this would no doubt please the numbers geeks and fantasy types. As long as they get around 2,3000 yards rushing in a Ben Johnson offense, they'll have a shot unless Williams suddenly becomes a turnover machine. So far in his career, he has taken care of the ball well with an interception rate of only 1.2%.

When Johnson's first Lions team ran for only 2,179 yards, they just missed the playoffs despite 4,438 yards and 29 TD throws by Goff. When they went over 2.300 yards rushing the next two seasons it was enough combined with Goff's passing to gain playoff berths. Last year they ran for only 2,041 yards after they'd been at 2,488 in Johnson's final season there.

It's the main reason the Lions went after Drew Petzing as offensive coordinator. His Cardinals offenses were ninth and eighth overall in rushing in his first two years despite an offensive line that really was offensive. They're going to put the rushing train back together behind a better line and combine it with Goff's precision passing this year.

The Bears would be well advised to keep their running attack going, and they have to hope losing center Drew Dalman doesn't keep them from doing it. New Bears center Garrett Bradbury was part of a running attack that finished sixth overall in New England. They have to like their chances of doing this.

It wouldn't work this way for every team. Some offenses can function better whether they have the rushing yards or not. Kansas City has had impressive attacks even with so-so rushing. But Johnson's attack needs that running attack to unleash his passing game.

Williams was second in play-action plays with 212 last year after he was just 15th his rookie year in another offense. Goff was fifth, third and first at play-action attempts under Johnson.

If Williams has the big running attack on his side again, he might even get to those 4,000-yard and 30-touchdown marks anyway, and then all the numbers nerds can quit talking about how they haven't had either of those. More importantly the Bears would be a playoff team again based on Johnson's past success.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.

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