Bear Digest

The two paths Bears can take for a playoff win over the Packers

Analysis: Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and the Bears lack playoff experience but have enough winning experience to beat Green Bay one of two different ways.
Gene Chamberlain|
D'Andre Swift bolts to the outside for a good gain against the Packers in a 22-16 Bears overtime victory.
D'Andre Swift bolts to the outside for a good gain against the Packers in a 22-16 Bears overtime victory. | Mark Hoffman/Milwaukee Journal Sentinel / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In this story:

Chicago Bears

After two tries against Green Bay without a lead until the final Game 2 play in overtime, it's obvious what the Bears need to do if they want to win Saturday’s playoff game.

They need to take a lead. It's easier playing from ahead.

“They're a very talented group from top to bottom," Johnson said. "We've kept the game close both times. We played them and had a chance at the end of the game to come out on top.

"I'd like to see us play better early in the game, particularly on offense. It felt like last couple times we played we haven't gotten off to as fast of a start as you'd like."

A fast start is where it begins but as Robert Plant wrote, there are two paths you can go by.

Path No. 1: Possession

The Bears can win the possession battle, frustrate the Packers on offense by keeping them off the field, and make sure they also score in the process.

"Particularly the first game against them in the first half, we did not do well on third down, second half we were a little bit better and we had a little bit more success moving the ball,” Johnson said. “The last game we played against them, same thing, they did a good job with their third down plan and we weren't able to stay on the field."

This is the primary way the Bears can beat the Packers, and that is running the ball and possessing it. For some teams, this would be the more difficult route. For the Bears, this should be an easier route.

They finished third in rushing. The Packers gave up 307 yards on the ground to Baltimore after losing the overtime game to the Bears. This wasn't like the game with Minnesota because the Packers still had something to play for and their defense couldn't stop Derrick Henry or Tyler Huntley. The Bears know what that's all about. Henry had 216 yards and Huntley 60 yards on the ground.

"I think the story of both games so far has been their offense possessing the ball and when that happens, you just have limited opportunities, limited possessions and it makes each play and each possession that much more valuable," Johnson said.

It really wasn't the story of both games, just the story of how the first game started, and then the second game.

In the second half of the first game, the Bears played the way they need to in order win. They not only held the ball but they also scored. They had 10:26 more time of possession in the second half of the first game than Green Bay, but their inability to possess it in the first half and score enough eventually finished them.

Caleb Williams' running would need to be a big part of this. If he scrambles to extend drives and time of possession, it would be huge. In the four games when Williams ran for 30 yards or more this season, the Bears went 4-0.

So why didn't they do this in the second game if it worked so well in the first game?

Green Bay used a different quarterback whose strength was running it and maintaining possession. Malik Willis essentially took time of possession away from the Bears and forced them into do what they didn't want to do. It worked, except for fumbling the ball on one play in overtime and then DJ Moore's TD catch.

There is a caveat to taking this route.

"We’ve just got to be mindful of that and make sure we're making the most of the opportunities," Johnson said.

They had 18 second-half points in the first game and despite all of the possession time it just wasn't enough.

Possession time needs to end in the end zone. Possession time starts with a defense that gets off the field so the offense can work on the clock. The Bears' defense has been entirely unreliable despite leading the league in takeaways.

"Their offense is one of the best, if not the best in the NFL on third and fourth down," Johnson said. "We’ve got a big challenge there in terms of getting off the field when we get them in those situations."

Path No. 2: The free for all

Anything can happen in this type of game. It could be a last-second type of battle and the lead will change hands repeatedly.

It's as if everything is out of the team's control in one of these. It becomes a coin toss.

The Bears have been involved in these, as have the Packers. The Bears beat Cincinnati in miraculous circumstances during such a game. They lost to the 49ers in this type of game. Their defense didn't allow them to keep up with Detroit in that kind of game at Ford Field in Week 2. The Packers tied Dallas in this type of game.

A red zone defense occasionally capable of preventing touchdowns in this type of battle can make all the difference.

"I do feel good about our red zone defense and that came through big for us last time we played," Johnson said. "Would like to see that happen again.”

No doubt Williams can flourish in a wide-open type of battle. He played games like that every week in college and essentially every comeback win he earned this season came down to wild finishes. The experience is there, and with Rome Odunze back and rookie receivers Luther Burden and Colston Loveland now broken in, the Bears are well equipped to handle this type of game.

The problem with all of this is it puts too much emphasis on their fickle defense to make the key stops at game's end and also puts an extreme amount of pressure on a young quarterback who lacks playoff experience.

It also takes control out of the coach’s hands.

Best bet

Expect Johnson will try to take the first method and run the ball at the Packers, try to move it with the short passing game and occasionally let Williams take a chance on something upfield.

The coach has more control in this type of game.

If it doesn't work, if there are turnovers or if the Packers score too much early again, then they'll abandon the sane approach and push the free-for-all button.

At that point, they would have nothing to lose.

It's not a situation foreign to the Bears this season. It happened six times.

More Chicago Bears News

X: BearsOnSI

Published
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.