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Why Bears Defense Can Disprove Myths and Remain Elite NFL Ballhawks

The Bears defense last year succeeded because of takeaways despite yielding chunks of yardage, and there's every reason to believe they continue doing this.
Gene Chamberlain|
Even with a key player like Nahshon Wright gone from the Bears' secondary, there's every reason to think their success taking it away can continue.
Even with a key player like Nahshon Wright gone from the Bears' secondary, there's every reason to think their success taking it away can continue. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

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Chicago Bears

In a manner of speaking, a great myth has built up about the Bears and their defensive improvement efforts over this offseason.

The theory is how they can't possibly hope to duplicate last year's efforts at taking away the football, and their defense will be much worse as a result because they haven't improved their pass rush.

The reason it's said they can't duplicate last year's defensive effort is they led the NFL in takeaways with 33, and this made it possible for their defense to keep games close or the offense to get leads or even for Caleb Williams to mount comebacks in Iceman mode.

While it is true no one can expect to lead the NFL in takeaways in successive years the way the Bears did, it doesn't mean they have to assume they'll be a great deal less effective at this. And there is one very good reason to assume it continues, that they could even lead again and that the defense improves overall.

What's really important on defense

Start a statistical assessment with the beginning of this decade because the pandemic ushered in the start of the seven-team playoff format.

The Bears currently are in a run of three straight years finishing among the top 10 teams at takeaways. They were 10th in 2024 and fifth in 2023, and first last year. Wait, didn't they say this couldn't be done? And now they've added a safety with speed in Dillon Thieneman.

There have been plenty of teams who finished back to back top 10 for takeaways within this decade alone, or did it over multiple years. The Cowboys did it three straight years from 2020-22, the Colts did it four straight years under Matt Eberlus' scheme, twice in this decade. The Bills did it every year from 2020-24. The Ravens did it in 2022-23 and in 2020. The Texans, 49ers, and Steelers did it in successive years. It happens so often that to say takeaway production can't be duplicated and is more happenstance is simply pure rubbish.

This gets repeated so often on social media that it becomes akin to gaslighting. It's just a false statement.

Of course repeating as the top takeaway team is difficult, but  it's difficult to repeat as the top team at anything.

Pass-rush win rate is often cited as a critical statistic, for example. In fact, it's a stat the Bears get their noses rubbed in all the time because they were near the bottom last year. If they want to be a great team, they need to be great at pass-rush win rate, it's said. It can help, no doubt, but this isn't a stat any easier to repeat than takeaways. At least there has been one team lead the NFL in takeaways for successive seasons this decade but no team has led in pass-rush win rate for successive seasons. So which is easier to count on?

In fact, there is no real evidence pass-rush win rate is an indicator you're a playoff team more than some other stats, especially takeaways. Only 5.5 teams per year over this decade have finished top 10 in pass-rush win rate and made the playoffs. You'll hear lots of talk about sacks being less important than pass-rush win rate. Over the decade, 6.5 of teams finishing top 10 in sacks make the playoffs every year.

So much for win rate.

Sacks and win rate combined are important because they're indicators of heat on the QB.

What's more important? Takeaways.

Since the league went to the 14-team playoff format, an average of 8.6 of the top 10 teams in takeaways made the playoffs each season. That's better by far than either sacks or pass-rush win rate.

In fact, more teams make the playoffs every year who are top 10 in takeaways than make the playoffs for being top 10 in overall run defense (6.7) or overall pass defense (5.8).

Why it can be repeated

When Kevin Byard, Nahshon Wright, and Tremaine Edmunds were taking away the ball last year for the Bears at a high rate, it meant everything for that defense. If you believe in speed, they should have a better chance to repeat this because each of those three players were replaced by more capable, faster players. Thieneman brings a huge boost in speed, as does linebacker Devin Bush.

This, alone isn't a reason to believe the Bears can repeat as a top takeaway team, or at least be a top-10 takeaway team for the fourth straight year.

The main reason for this is coaching matters.

This much has been obvious with Ben Johnson running the offense. Leading the league in takeaways in his first year as defensive coordinator should say the same for coordinator Dennis Allen, especially because the type of players he had to work with were not system fits to the extent this year's group is. Also, he didn't even have multiple starters available at each level of the defense for huge chunks of the season.

Even those factors aren't a reason to think they can repeat as takeaway kings or be a top-10 unit as much as one other fact.

They bring back Al Harris as the secondary coach after a few teams interviewed him but wouldn't give him a chance to be a defensive coordinator.

When Dallas became the only team to lead the league in successive years at taking the ball away this decade, Harris was their secondary coach. He was the secondary coach each year from 2020-22 when they finished top 10 in takeaways. Dallas made the playoffs in 2021-22 when it was No. 1 in takeaways with Harris coaching the DBs.

Harris came to Chicago after Jon Hoke helped the Bears' secondary get to the top 10 for takeaways in 2023-24, and Harris helped them take it up a notch to No. 1, even without the benefit of the so-called critical pass-rush win rate and with a pass rush only 22nd in sacks.

There's no reason to think Harris can't do the same with starting DBs more available than they were last year.

The Bears' can keep taking the ball away every bit as much as they can continue to avoid turning it over on offense. Back-to-back seasons with six and seven interceptions thrown by Williams say this.

The combination of few turnovers and plenty of takeaways is a lethal combination when put together with an explosive offense like Johnson built.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.