© Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports
Where It Stands with Bears and NFC North Two Weeks from Draft
Analysis: The Chicago Bears would benefit most by an edge rusher, and they'll need it if the other NFC North teams keep improving on offense.
Whether the Bears trade or stay put after taking Caleb Williams is the great guessing game with the ninth pick in Round 1.
The trade down makes sense from several standpoints.
For one, cost-wise they pay less if they aren't taking two players in the top 10, but the rookie salary cap makes this far less of a problem than in the old days.
Trading down makes more sense from a need standpoint. They can use a receiver, and no one would deny it's a fun thought to give Williams as many targets as possible, but the real actual need is pass rusher.
Edge is primary but defensive tackle also is a potential problem. Trading down still alllows them to come up with one of the best edge rushers, if not the best. If they stake a wide receiver by staying put or trading back, they are likely to get either the third-best wide receiver or even fourth best.
Trading up really makes no sense unless they find someone willing to take their extra second-round pick from next year along with the ninth pick. This is a steep price to pay.
Then there is Matt Eberflus' natural lean toward defense as a former defensive coordinator. To implement his scheme, he needs more than one edge rusher. Maybe DeMarcus Walker improves as an edge in Year 2 within the system, maybe not, but they haven't seen anything from Dominique Robinson in two years and a third edge contributing heat is needed for the rotation.
The Bears already drafted Velus Jones Jr. and Tyler Scott at receiver. They traded for two other receivers. It's time to get Eberflus his young edge, or so the thinking goes.
They could trade back and still get one of the better edge rushers but if they take a receiver, they don't necessarily have a top edge alternative all the way back in Round 3. There are receivers they could draft as far back as third or fourth round and past drafts say it's easier for receivers taken later to succeed than for edge rushers.
Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com calls wide receiver the second-strongest position group in the draft and edge rusher fourth strongest. Obviously the talent will last longer at receiver.
It might not be a trade back, though, just an edge taken with No. 9.
“It’ll be boring if we don’t do any trades, but I feel pretty good about where we’re at," Poles said at the owners meetings.
The Bears' first pick in the draft is a formality as everything they've done and said leading to the draft indicate they'll take quarterback Caleb Williams. The draft starts for the Bears at No. 9. It won't last long afterward, unless Poles starts trading back for more picks.
Here's how things look two weeks out for the other NFC North teams.
Minnesota Vikings
Two weeks from now, the Vikings are going to draft a quarterback in the first round. There's zero question about that. This is a strong quarterback class, the Vikings have two first-round picks, and the current options on their roster are Sam Darnold and Nick Mullens. They've been building towards this seismic shift — moving on from Kirk Cousins and drafting a QB — since the new regime took over two years ago.
The question is which quarterback, and with what pick? The Vikings have the 11th and 23rd selections in the first round. GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah is known for wheeling and dealing, so it would be quite surprising if they stay put and make those two picks as is. The most likely outcome still seems to be a trade up for one of the top non-Caleb Williams quarterbacks, whether that's Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy. The issue there is how much of a QB tax they'll have to pay to convince a team sitting in the top five to move down to 11.
The other option is to take Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix in the 10s or 20s, which would allow them to keep the other first-rounder this year, as well as their future draft capital. But if you're going to take a QB, you might as well be aggressive and go get your guy, right?
-Will Ragatz, Inside the Vikings
Green Bay Packers
GM Brian Gutekunst hasn’t been one to reach to fill a need. From that standpoint, it will be interesting to see how he handles the first two days of the draft.
The Packers have the 25th pick of the first round, the 41st and 58th picks of the second round and the 88th and 91st picks of the third round. That’s five early opportunities to hit the big needs – namely offensive line, cornerback, safety and linebacker.
With the ability to move around the draft board, will he stick at No. 25 and take the cliched best available player? Will he give up one of those Day 2 picks to go get his guy? Might he move back if the board is strong and, for sake of example, the Chiefs want to move up for a receiver or cornerback? Could he move way up for another pick in the early 30s?
One unrelated note: Gutekunst loves his quarterback tandem of Jordan Love and Sean Clifford. However, at one point during Brett Favre’s tenure, then-GM Ron Wolf drafted six quarterbacks in seven years. Gutekunst wants to get back to that way of doing business. Would he dare use a third-rounder on a signal-caller? Or wait to take a flier with one of his four picks in the final two rounds?
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are in the unique position to be able to target the best player available when it is their turn to hand in their draft card.
It is clear the organization is doing their due diligence at the cornerback and wide receiver positions pre-draft.
I'm hearing Detroit's front office is enamored with cornerbacks who have the potential of also helping the team in the return game, which makes Koolaid McKinstry and Cooper DeJean realistic options at No. 29.
Terrion Arnold, who has also visited the Lions, is a player many teams will covet in the first round, as he played 301 combined special-teams snaps the last two years.
Being a special teams contributor and being the only FBS player with 12 or more pass breakups and at least five interceptions last year will make it unlikely he is available when it Detroit's turn to pick.
Outside of the cornerback spot, it is also realistic general manager Holmes targets an offensive lineman like Graham Barton since the unit features three starters over the age of 30.
Detroit has been successful building in the trenches and the dream scenario this year is if EDGE Darius Robinson somehow falls to Detroit late in the first round.
Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven
