Houston Texans Provide Cautionary Tale For Cincinnati Bengals
Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
That phrase feels more relevant this week than any other time this season. Zac Taylor's squad travels south to Houston.
They're looking for back-to-back victories and the elusive road win. Both of which have yet to happen under Taylor, leaving fans and media alike wondering how viable the young coach can be after posting a 5-24-1 record in his first 29 games.
Beating the Steelers is a massive accomplishment, but Taylor still has plenty to prove. Former Texans coach Bill O'Brien achieved success in his division and even led Houston to the playoffs, but he was fired after an 0-4 start this season.
It became clear that O'Brien wasn't the man destined to lead Deshaun Watson and the Texans last January. Whether it was trailing 16-0 to a novice Josh Allen or blowing a 24-0 lead to Kansas City the next week, O'Brien fumbled away his quarterback's talents.
Texans owner Bob McNair pushed all of his chips in with O'Brien. He gave him absolute power to make decisions with player personnel. That trust and "stick with it" attitude is a cautionary tale for Cincinnati.
By making the call to fire O'Brien six months too late, the Texans have hamstrung their franchise with no rookie quarterback contract as a buffer. O'Brien's past few offseason decisions have left the team with no star receiver, minuscule draft capital, and a salary sheet of $18 million over the cap in 2021. Texans owner Bob McNair let O'Brien turn his team into smoldering wreckage, with one fire hose to fight it.
This season is proof that star quarterbacks can't carry overcome everything, even if they're playing at an elite level. Watson ranks second league-wide in passer rating (110.6), third in completion rate (73.1%), ninth in passing TDs (27), and 10th in QBR (72.1). Of those 10, only he and Derek Carr are projected to miss out on the playoffs.
O'Brien's tenure with Houston is a cautionary tale for teams with a stellar young quarterback—sometimes talent can't overcome incompetence.
That brings us to this Sunday's game. The Texans are an opponent the Bengals can look at and say, "we can't be this like them at the end of Joe Burrow's rookie contract."
Houston is out of time. Their next general manager has to thread the needle of building a team around their mega-deal quarterback, while the Bengals hourglass has plenty of sand left.
Taylor doesn't have the final say in roster decisions the same way O'Brien did, but Bengals coaches aren't on an island. They have a big say in player personnel, which hasn't seen many outsiders pop under their watch. O'Brien got caught in the same delusions this Bengals' staff has begun falling into. The former Texans coach thought some lucky wins in 2018 meant they were one step from the Lombardi, so he sold their future.
The Bengals felt they had the right pieces to build a competent offensive line. Then the season started, and they were scrambling on the waiver wire for help.
The Bengals and Texans went different ways to solve their problems, but both moves showed the same glaring lack of self-awareness.
History says Taylor has little chance to succeed as head coach of the Bengals. A record of 0-14-1 on the road doesn't instill much hope. Losing to the favored Texans would place him with Marty Mornhinweg as the only head coaches to finish two seasons without a road win. Sunday is monumental for Taylor. If they expected to beat the Steelers, then they should expect to leave Houston with a win.
Whether it's Ryan Finley or Brandon Allen, Taylor should be able to scheme points against a horrible Texans defense. J.J. Watt is all that's left on a unit that ranks 29th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per play. Houston doesn't do anything well as they've given up 25-plus points in four straight games. Taylor can attack a soft secondary with quick passing from Allen, or the rushing attack can take center stage with Finley. Monday was their second-highest rushing total of the season (152 yards), while the Texans defense ranks 31st in rushing EPA per play.
Unless Monday night's production against a top defense was a mirage, Taylor should continue the scoring trend against Houston.
On the other side of the ball, Lou Anarumo can continue fighting for his spot on this staff. The defensive coordinator has been on the hot seat as a potential casualty should Taylor stick around. Cincinnati hasn't played a top-tier offense since they held the Titans to 20 points. Now they close the season against arguably the two best quarterbacks they've faced all year: Watson and Lamar Jackson.
There have been 180 Quarterbacks since 1969 with Watson's 2020 adjusted yards per attempt. He's one of 11 that haven't finished with a winning record. MVP-level play from Watson has been destroyed by institutional malpractice.
When Mike Brown assesses the Texans on Sunday, he'll be looking at a warning sign for his franchise. Continuity is the goal for NFL teams, except when the same thing continuously flounders, then it becomes insanity.
The Bengals have their franchise quarterback in Burrow. Now they have to build around him much better than the Texans did after they found Watson.
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