3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Patriots
The Denver Broncos aren't sure which quarterback they'll be facing on Monday night. And neither do the New England Patriots.
Both Vic Fangio and Bill Belichick are a little off-balance in that regard, having to prepare for multiple contingencies. Fangio said on Friday that the Broncos are preparing as if Cam Newton will play. But it's hard to say how Belichick has prepared.
Will the Broncos get Drew Lock back in the lineup? That's the biggest question of the week. After missing the last two games and most of Week 2, Lock is working back from an injury to his throwing shoulder.
Lock has been a limited participant in practice this week. The Broncos are telegraphing to the media that he's unlikely to play, just by virtue of their in-week rhetoric and the reporting of him taking the third- and fourth-string QB reps at practice.
But as I've said elsewhere, I have a sneaking suspicion the Broncos are a lot more bullish on Lock's prospects than meets the eye. If Lock doesn't play, though, Brett Rypien gets his second straight start, once again on the road on East Coast time in-Conference.
It's a big game. Even if Lock doesn't play, he's certain to next week, so if Denver can steal a win and get to 2-3, this season would suddenly take on an entirely new complexion.
According to SportsBetting.com, the Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs, so how do Fangio and company defy the odds? It's time for this week's three keys to victory.
Channel Your Inner 2011 Broncos
Regardless of whether it's Rypien or Lock, the Broncos will start a second-year quarterback at Foxborough. You know the NFL cliche: a productive running game is a young QB's best friend.
Fortunately for Denver, Phillip Lindsay is returning to the lineup after missing the last 14 quarters of play with a turf-toe injury. That means the Broncos are poised to get the two-headed rushing attack of Lindsay and Melvin Gordon for a full 60 minutes.
We still haven't seen offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur's vision for Lindsay and Gordon take shape. This would be a prime week to unveil that vision.
The Patriots are the 17th-ranked rushing defense, allowing 115.3 yards per game on the ground. There are no elite front-seven players this week, although any Belichick defense is going to be soundly-coached and disciplined.
Meanwhile, even without Lindsay in the lineup, the Broncos emerge at the season's quarter-pole averaging 92.5 rushing yards per game. Some of that is due to Lindsay's absence, some is due to game-flow and falling behind early in games, while the Broncos' interior offensive line also shoulders its share of the blame.
The Broncos have to channel their inner 2011 counterparts and find creative ways to establish the run. Shurmur loves inside and outside zone. Give Belichick and company a heavy dose of it and exploit the Patriots with strategic shots downfield using play-action.
Rypien showed a fearlessness in throwing deep last week, connecting with Jerry Jeudy on a 48-yard touchdown, as well as a few other big plays downfield. It all starts with the ground-and-pound, though. You've got a pair of Pro Bowl running backs, give them each 12-15 touches and take some pressure off whichever young QB gets the start.
Get Your Chubb On (Manufacture Pressure)
Last week, Bradley Chubb kicked off what chunks of rust remained, tallying 10 QB pressures and notching 2.5 sacks. It was just what the doctor ordered.
Hopefully, that version of Chubb — which looked like a return to 2018 form — is here to stay for Denver. But even if it is, he can't do it alone.
Coach Fangio has had to overcome his traditional reticence to blitz in the wake of losing pass-rush prowess from Von Miller, Jurrell Casey, Dre'Mont Jones, and DeMarcus Walker. For a couple of weeks there, Fangio's blitzing was all-too-predictable but he mixed it up quite nicely last week at MetLife Stadium.
Whether the Patriots start Newton, or if it's Brian Hoyer or even Jarrett Stidham, all three of those quarterbacks are different players when they're getting knocked around and hit. The Broncos have to find a way to get home and affect the quarterback, even if it means manufacturing pressure by way of sending the blitz.
Josey Jewell showed surprising acumen as a blitzer last week, picking up two sacks himself and totaling 10 tackles. The Patriots have only allowed seven sacks on the season and it's not necessarily due to their offensive line but more so about their prolific ground attack.
Fangio's defense has acquitted itself well against the run, entering Week 5 in the top-13 even without so many key players. With Mike Purcell and Shelby Harris holding it down at the point of attack, I foresee more than a few third-and-longs. When that happens, Chubb and his cohorts have to get home and affect the thrower, which could lead to a takeaway or two and a couple extra possessions.
Walk the Razor's Edge With Aplomb
Against a Belichick-coached team, the margin for error is slim-to-none. On the road, at Gillette Stadium, that reality is even more striking for this young Broncos squad.
Last week, the Broncos got lucky, emerging with a 37-28 win despite three giveaways (including a pick-six) and multiple lapses. The Broncos simply have to be more disciplined this week on the road and that's on both sides of the ball.
Protect the ball. Know your assignment. Play with discipline. On defense, tackle well and don't let anyone get behind the last line of defense.
The victor of this game will likely be the one that is most disciplined. On paper, Belichick's squad has the clear advantage in that department, especially with how much the Broncos are having to rely on rookies and young players in the wake of the injury bug.
However, Fangio's philosophy is 'death by inches'. We saw it implemented to great effect last year down the stretch with Fangio winning 5-of-8 games.
Can Fangio glean a disciplined collective performance from such a young squad? Time will tell but he doesn't need me to tell him that walking the razor's edge will be crucial as the margin for error vs. New England is microscopic — even without Tom Brady.
UPDATE: This game has been rescheduled again, moved to Week 6.
Follow Chad on Twitter @ChadNJensen and @MileHighHuddle.
