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Gut Reaction: Broncos Defy Draft Insiders to Take Bo Nix at No. 12
The Denver Broncos drafted Bo Nix at No. 12 overall and fans should be ecstatic. Here are five reasons why.
We know how much Sean Payton values a "quick processor" in a quarterback. That, among other traits, made Oregon quarterback Bo Nix an excellent fit for the Denver Broncos.
In a wild first round of the 2024 NFL draft, the Broncos selected Nix with the No. 12 overall pick, after a whopping five quarterbacks had been selected in the top 10. There are rumors that Denver liked USC's Caleb Williams (No. 1 overall to Chicago) and LSU's Jayden Daniels (No. 2 to Washington) more, but insiders report that Nix took precedent for Payton above everyone else beyond them.
So why did Payton take a quarterback at No. 12 that so many drafniks and pundits questioned as being worthy of a first-round pick? Let's break down the five biggest reasons.
1. Quick Processor & Football IQ
The combination of athletic traits that, say, Williams and Daniels bring to the table are impressive in a vaccum. But when it comes to learning, adapting, and processing information quickly in real-time, Nix has them beat.
The tape tells that tale, but Nix's former teammate and Oregon, and new center in Denver, Alex Forsyth, boiled it down for the Broncos. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, Forsyth went to bat for Nix, telling the Broncos how smart Nix is, and how quickly he's able to "handle" things at the line of scrimmage.
"Broncos center Alex Forsyth, who played with Nix at Oregon before Denver drafted him in the seventh round last year, raved to Denver’s coaches about his former college quarterback. Forsyth told the Broncos coaches that Nix is smart, knows every protection, handles it all at the line of scrimmage, and had the universal respect of the entire team," Schefter tweeted on Thursday night after Denver had selected Nix.
It's not just about how sharp a QB is pre-snap. How he comports himself after the ball is snapped is the other half of the equation, and the tape reveals that Nix is an excellent decision-maker.
In his two years at Oregon, Nix averaged a 74.7 completion percentage, and his QB rating was off the charts. Branded with the dreaded "system quarterback" tag, too many media pundits bought into that label, ignoring his ridiculous production and ability to execute in critical situations.
Payton wanted a QB with a high football IQ. Nix checks that box. But he also checks the next one in how quickly he's able to process and execute on the grid-iron.
According to Schefter, the Broncos knew that Nix was their guy after the private workout they held with him following his pro day.
"Denver held a private workout with Bo Nix the day after his pro day. The night before the workout, the Broncos sent Nix three packets of offensive play installation. And the next morning, as they worked in the classroom with Nix, he “crushed it”, per a Broncos source.
"The Broncos then took Nix from the classroom to the field, watched him throw for an hour, and were convinced they had a quarterback they wanted," Schefter reported on Thursday night.
2. Fit
There was arguably no QB in the 2024 draft class who fit Payton and his scheme better than Nix. The pre-draft Drew Brees comparisons on Nix were apt, and the similiarities the two quarterbacks share speak to Oregon QB's fit in a Payton system.
Brees didn't need a plus-NFL arm to thrive, especially in Payton's scheme. More than anything, Payton's scheme demands that football IQ, quick processor, and enough athleticism and arm talent to vie with NFL defensive backs.
Payton's variant of the West Coast Offense uses the passing game as an extension of the rushing attack. Nix is perfectly suited to those requirements, especially in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field.
Does he have a cannon for an arm? No. But it's good enough to complement all the other traits — both tangible and intangible — he brings to the table.
3. Experience
Nix was not only the most experienced quarterback in the 2024 draft, but he's the most experienced guy in the history of NCAA Division I football. His 61 career collegiate starts are an NCAA record, fueled, in part, by the extra year of eligibility afforded him by the 2020 pandemic year.
Nix not only played a lot, but he also went against top-level competition for three years at Auburn, battling in the SEC, and the two years he spent at Oregon against the stiff defenses of the PAC-12, including Utah and Washington. The key? Nix's understanding of how those reps and time on task could serve him as a quarterback if he could cultivate the right mindset.
“Experience is one of the most valuable traits,’’ Nix said via 9NEWS' Mike Klis. “Repetition is the mother of all skills, the more you can do something, the better you get. I think playing this game playing the sport has allowed me to get better each game, I was able to prove that as the years went on. Learning new things five systems in five years is a lot to learn, but it’s a lot of fun. Wouldn’t trade it for the world, it’s one of the best things that makes me, me.’’
4. Prolific Production
Again, Nix gets tarred with the 'system QB' label, but the level at which he produced at Oregon should offset any lingering concerns over the scheme being solely responsible for the production. As a senior this past season, he threw for 4,508 yards and a whopping 45 touchdowns, with just three interceptions.
But wait, there's more.
Nix also rushed for 234 yards and six additional touchdowns. Combined over five college seasons (three at Auburn, two at Oregon), Nix totaled 15,352 passing yards and 113 touchdowns.
On top of that production, Nix also exits the college ranks with 1,613 rushing yards and 38 touchdowns on the ground. He even caught a touchdown pass.
It's one thing to be experienced. But what did Nix achieve with all those repetitions? I think we know.
5. Talented in All the Right Ways
Nobody will confuse Nix's arm with Josh Allen's, but the kid doesn't get enough credit for being an elite athlete, as illustrated by his rushing totals. I don't recall Brees getting panned for lacking the arm strength/talent of Aaron Rodgers, nor can I think of Peyton Manning's QB stock suffering for not having an arm like John Elway's.
When it comes to quarterbacks, it's about the complete package. JaMarcus Russell could throw a football 70 yards sitting on his backside. But he lacked the other requisite traits to make him a successful NFL QB, despite being the former No. 1 overall pick in the draft.
Nix's arm strength may be average for the NFL. But so was Brees' — and Manning's arm, even before his four neck surgeries, was never anything to write home about. Tom Brady's arm couldn't hold a candle to the Howitzer handing off Jay Cutler's right shoulder, and yet, the former won seven Super Bowls while the latter sniffed the playoffs once.
Before anyone gets a cramp clutching at pearls, I'm not comparing Nix to Hall-of-Famers. I'm simply illustrating that there's a whole lot more to succeeding at quarterback in the NFL than arm strength.
Talent is a relative word, and Payton understands that. Brees, Manning, and Brady didn't need an elite arm to win. They beat the snot out of opponents in a variety of other ways.
Nix landed in the best possible spot. The Broncos got their future franchise quarterback and this time around, the team has the right head coach to develop that player.
It was a great night for the Denver Broncos.
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