Is Bo Nix Really a Franchise QB? This Metric is a Reliable Predictor

This metric is as solid as there is for predicting whether rookie quarterbacks will become franchise guys.

Dec 2, 2024; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) reacts after a play in the third quarter against the Cleveland Browns at Empower Field at Mile High. / Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Third down is often referred to as the 'money down' in the NFL. Converting on this all-important down is a catalyst to victory.

A quarterback who can convert with his arm at a high rate is typically considered elite. Those who can't tend to be busts. Where does Denver Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix rank when it comes to this all-important down?

Simply put, Nix is passing the test with flying colors, and it could be a very reliable harbinger of the Broncos' future with him under center. Let's examine.

The Qualifiers

I have analyzed the 61 qualifying quarterbacks who had their first NFL season in 2014 or later and found something quite amazing. Once these quarterbacks got their first four weeks to settle into the NFL, their third-down conversion percentage became an indicator of just how good they were going to be in the future.

If one of these quarterbacks was good at converting third downs when throwing in that first season, in almost every case, he's considered elite today, or at least very good. Inversely, if a quarterback wasn't efficient at those conversions, he was almost always considered a bust, a backup, or a mediocre starter.

Nix on Third Down

Nov 24, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders in the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. / Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Since Week 5, Nix has converted 45.1% of third downs when passing the ball. There's only one quarterback who had a better percentage after Week 4 in his first season as a starter. You may have guessed: Patrick Mahomes at 46.3%. That's good company.

Now, here's what makes the Broncos' future look so bright. Since 2014, of the 16 quarterbacks who converted third downs at 36% or better with the same criteria, only Jameis Winston, Nick Mullens, and Deshaun Watson are not considered elite.

At one point, Watson was on his way until his off-field troubles saw him traded, while Mullens had the shortest yards to go of anyone in the analyzed group. The top five in this category are Mahomes, Nix, Brock Purdy, Tua Tagovailoa, and Joe Burrow.  Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, and Josh Allen are also in this category. 

There isn't a single quarterback whom anyone would consider to be good in the bottom 15 of this list. Here are some of the names: Josh Rosen, Zach Wilson, DeShone Kizer, and Dwayne Haskins.

These are some of the worst quarterbacks to take snaps in the league since 2014. Furthermore, only Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold are doing well among all quarterbacks who converted below 35%. Needless to say, success on the money down in a quarterback's first season predicts success in the future. 

Context is Key

To add some context, Nix has not had it easy on third down. When passing, his average yards to go is 7.4 yards. That mark is right about the average of the other top quarterbacks we just discussed.

Furthermore, the Broncos' rushing attack has been anemic in almost every game, so there's very little threat of a trick hand-off. The defense knows a throw is coming and Nix can still get the offense past the sticks.

The Takeaway

Nix has the Broncos in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time in nearly a decade. Before the season, nobody was picking the Broncos to go to the postseason and most thought they would have a losing season.

Nix has helped a young team win games that the Broncos shouldn't have this year and all the quarterback metrics are pointing to a bright future for the rookie. The Broncos have found themselves a franchise quarterback and a winning mentality.

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