3 Big Takeaways From Broncos' 19-17 Win Over Packers
Wins are hard to come by in the NFL, so it's important to appreciate every one of them. It's a long season, and there are a lot of positives to take from the Denver Broncos' 19-17 win over the Green Bay Packers.
The Broncos moved the ball well between the 20-yard lines, grinding out extra yardage and making timely plays on offense, defense, and special teams. And yes, the Broncos played reasonably well and deserved to win this football game.
The Broncos had some dubious streaks that were, mercifully, put to an end, having lost the last 10 games where they led at halftime and finally scoring a touchdown on the first drive after halftime. The Broncos overcame significant adversity with the touchdown given to Romeo Doubs when a diving Patrick Surtain II looked to have established two feet down first with an interception in the end zone and Jayden Reed's bizarre ricochet touchdown.
However, just like after the Week 4 win over the Chicago Bears, it remains to be seen how much the Broncos can gain in confidence moving forward. This team needs a win that provides some meaning and a platform to build off.
Many of the flaws of the 2023 Broncos remain and can be exploited by better opponents. In other words, the Broncos had better hope that this isn't another empty-calories win in October.
But what else did we learn in Week 7? Let's dive into this week's takeaways.
A Tale of Two Halves With a New Outcome
For much of the game, Russell Wilson targeted Packers rookie cornerback Carrington Valentine when he was in man coverage. Valentine was replacing All-Pro cornerback Jaire Alexander who was out.
On script, the Broncos looked fine enough, moving the ball well to begin the game but needed a brilliant one-handed grab by Courtland Sutton to get a big gain. Later in the game, Jerry Jeudy had an out and up on a free release, with Valentine the closest in coverage. When the Broncos targeted Valentine, they usually found success in his direction.
Indeed, in the early part of the second quarter, Sutton had four receptions for 52 yards on throws with Valentine in coverage. Wilson and the Broncos offense had zero turnovers, won the time-of-possession battle, and made timely plays when they had to.
The Broncos did a good job in the first half of running the ball and remained committed to it, again, moving the ball well between the 20s, although mostly running the ball outside of the tackles. Wilson was efficient in the box score, finishing 20-of-29 for 194 yards and a touchdown, but in terms of his play on the field, it was just... okay.
The Broncos lacked red-zone success, going 1-of-4 on trips inside the 20-yard line and having to settle for three points on relatively short field goals. Wilson made some timely scrambles but had numerous plays where he left yardage on the field by trying to scramble at the top of his drop-back into the pressure.
Wilson was not the problem, but again, he did little to show that he is the long-term answer at quarterback, at least, given the way the Broncos' roster is constructed as it is.
The offense has to clean up some holding penalties and bad execution. In the first quarter, a Quinn Bailey holding penalty cost the Broncos four points and wiped a touchdown off the board. In the second quarter, the passage of play with Marvin Mims Jr.'s end-around attempt on first down and then a holding penalty turned a potential scoring opportunity into a situation where the Broncos ended up punting.
The end-around, where Mims had to run almost 30 yards to lose 11 yards, was excellently diagnosed by the Packers defense, who didn’t abandon contain. Left tackle Garett Bolles had a solid game but was called for a holding call immediately after the end-around, putting the Broncos in a 2nd-&-31 situation.
Rookie running back Jaleel McLaughlin got 23 of those yards back, but with Green Bay safety Darnell Savage pulling up injured. Broncos right tackle Mike McGlinchey had a mediocre game, and more pre-snap penalties put the Broncos behind the chains and took them off-schedule in the second half.
Wilson’s lone touchdown pass to Sutton in the third quarter was a vertical route from a bunch formation to the left, with a well-designed rub route against man coverage delaying the cornerback just enough. However, the Broncos then seemingly gave up the initiative and allowed the Packers to storm back and take the lead.
The Packers deserve a lot of credit for shoring up their run defense and making the Broncos move away from the run game to force more punts in the second half. Early in the third quarter, Javonte Williams had eight carries for 62 yards, with the Broncos offense having, at that point, 120 yards rushing (including the end-around attempt), but 'Pookie' would finish with 16 carries for 82 yards with a long of 21.
McLaughin would finish with five carries for 45 yards, and again leaving many in Broncos Country scratching their heads as to why he wasn’t involved more on offense. Williams had solid volume but was shut down in the second half.
Juxtaposed against this, in the second half, the Packers committed to airing out the ball, answering gadget plays with gadget plays of their own, and generating much more explosive plays in the second half.
The Broncos defense did bend but generally did not break. Linebackers Josey Jewell and Alex Singleton, in particular, earned their stripes in dealing with AJ Dillon in the run game, with their share of wins and losses against the bruising running back, limiting him to less than 100 scrimmage yards.
While Wil Lutz kicked a go-ahead 50-plus-yard field goal, there was still plenty of time for the Packers to drive, and it looked ominous as Jordan Love was executing their four-minute offense, on the verge of being in field goal range. However, a late injury to Christian Watson and penalties against the Packers left them in desperation mode.
The Broncos need to do a better job at having a complete game. Good drives need to turn into good quarters into good halves and good games, and they need to remain committed to the run to make this offense shine. The Packers made better adjustments at halftime, and the Broncos need to be better in the second halves of games.
Don't Say the T-Word — For Now
As the Broncos have been looking up to the hated Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers, the recipe for their success has been to build around an uber-talented quarterback and exploit that rookie deal. There are other ways to build contenders, but the recipe in this era of the NFL with the mega deals that quarterbacks get is to build sustainably and to have a good core of talent around a promising signal-caller on a rookie deal, exploit that contract for the unpaid production and then as he gets paid, replenish other skill positions.
And while it's a long season and the draft is many months away, it would take earning/owning a top-two pick to land one of the two quarterbacks that figure to be close to those in terms of NFL talent level. The good news? The other one-win teams, save for Arizona, won, and there are plenty of permutations to play out before the Broncos have to worry about the draft.
In terms of trades and such, the new structure of the NFL playoffs means that more teams try to ride out slumps in September and October with the belief that they can turn it around and compete, when in reality, that used to be just simply coach-speak.
How much this win moves the needle on the Broncos’ playoff hopes, which are hanging by a thread even this early in the NFL season, remains to be seen. However, GM George Paton can’t simply wait until after next week’s game at Kansas City to make his deals.
If the plan is to jettison underperforming players or dangle pieces that other teams can do a better job of building around, the Broncos have to act quickly and get good value to increase their draft capital. It can be argued that more should have been done in that respect with the mini-bye, but this should be the week that there is some movement.
Speaking of which…
Enough of Kareem Jackson
Jackson has been a good player for the Broncos and has done much to set the tone on the defense, but once again, it's painfully evident that he has lost a significant step and is trying too hard to compensate for his lack of speed and size by launching himself at opponents. Once again, the veteran safety was ejected from the game and figures to have a significant punishment metered out by the NFL for repeatedly dangerous and reckless play.
It not only puts his and his opponent’s health at risk but also hurts his teammates. P.J. Locke played as well as can be expected for the situation he had come into in relief of Jackson.
There were some miscommunications and bad tackling when Locke entered the action, but he had an excellent play to seal the Broncos’ win. He recognized that there was no vertical threat to his coverage, made a good diagnosis, and ran to the ball from the other side of the field, helping Justin Simmons and plucking the ball out of the air for a game-winning interception. Not only did Locke's first career interception seal the deal, but it also could have sealed Jackson’s fate with the Broncos.
The Broncos are still in dire straits, but they have to thoroughly evaluate their options at every position on the roster. Jackson is not going to be helpful to the 2024 Broncos, so it makes no sense to keep him on the 2023 squad, as he is taking valuable snaps away from younger players.
Locke needs to be given reign to play with Simmons and allow Paton to properly evaluate his play as a potential starter moving forward, even if that means taking the rough with the smooth. The Broncos also need to see how third-round cornerback Riley Moss looks in their defense, even if that means getting him snaps in the nickel, dime, or even as a safety. There should be no more excuses as to why Moss is a healthy scratch.
There are other takeaways to come from this game, but the Broncos are still undefeated with the Mile High Huddle Meet and Greet in attendance at Empower Field at Mile High. This is easily a game the Broncos could have found a way to lose, but to their credit, they pulled it out of the fire.
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