Advanced Metric Reveals Broncos' Incredible Turnaround on Defense
In the first few weeks of the 2023 season, the Denver Broncos had a terrible defense — a defense that was on its way to being a historically bad unit. But in recent weeks, the Broncos defense has turned things around.
Denver's defense has been a key reason why, after starting the season at 1-4, the team has gone 3-1 in its last four games. The Broncos still have one of the lowest-ranked defensive units, as measured by Aaron Schatz's DVOA metric.
Through 10 weeks (and nine actual games), the Broncos still rank 32nd overall in defense at 21.5 percent (remember, DVOA is better for defenses when it's negative). However, things were a lot worse for the Broncos in the first five weeks, compared to recent weeks, as Schatz noted on Twitter earlier this week.
It's easy to point to the Broncos giving up 70 points to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, but what was arguably worse was the Week 1 showing against the Las Vegas Raiders, in which the defense didn't force a single punt against an offense that, through 10 weeks, ranks among the worst in the NFL.
But plenty has changed in the past few weeks. The Broncos parted ways with veteran rush linebackers Randy Gregory and Frank Clark, got Baron Browning back, saw improved play from Jonathon Cooper, got a healthy Justin Simmons in the lineup, replaced Essang Bassey with Ja'Quan McMillian, and gave more snaps to Fabian Moreau with fewer snaps to Damarri Mathis.
All of this has added up to a Broncos defense that's played good football in recent weeks. While not an elite unit by any means, Vance Joseph's unit has shown it can be a good one.
That has helped the Broncos a lot, given that the offense hasn't been as good as it may need to be. The Broncos are 17th in offensive DVOA at 0.5 percent.
The Broncos' defense has also taken some pressure off of special teams. But even with the miscues that happened during Monday's win over the Buffalo Bills, the Broncos rank second in special teams DVOA at 3.2 percent.
While the Broncos' special teams isn't an elite unit, it's a good one that could be great if the team can eliminate costly mistakes. Credit must go to Marvin Mims Jr., who has been great in the return game, earning conference honors for his Week 10 performance in Buffalo.
Getting back to the Broncos' defense, how might it fare in the weeks to come? The Broncos will face some quality offenses in the Houston Texans (No. 9 in offensive DVOA), the Los Angeles Chargers (No. 8 in offensive DVOA), and the Detroit Lions (fourth in offensive DVOA). These games come after matchups with the Minnesota Vikings, a good offense, and the Cleveland Browns, who have struggled but can do good things.
If the Broncos' defense can put on a performance against those teams, as it has against the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills, it wouldn't be surprising to see it rise up the DVOA ranks, even after its terrible showing in the first five weeks.
But one thing is clear: To see the Broncos' defense turn its fortunes around is nothing short of amazing.
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