3 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Chargers in Week 14
The Denver Broncos' five-game winning streak, which had made them the hottest team in the NFL, came to an end in Houston last Sunday in a demoralizing 22-17 loss. While the Houston Texans gained the upper hand in the AFC Wildcard race at 7-5, Denver was knocked back down to a .500 record with two more consecutive road games next up on the docket.
The now 6-6 Broncos fly to California for the first of two matchups in 21 days with the 5-7 Los Angeles Chargers. The Week 14's AFC West tilt will take place at SoFi Stadium, where the Broncos have never won.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is coming off a 6-0 road win against the New England Patriots as head coach Brandon Staley desperately attempts to keep his job after this season. So how does Denver get last week’s disappointing taste of losing out of its mouth?
It starts with a must-win game against the Justin Herbert-led Chargers if Sean Payton and Russell Wilson hope to lead their team to the postseason for the first time since 2015.
Let’s review three keys to a Broncos victory in L.A.
Dispatch Denver’s Blitz Against Herbert
While they’re technically still in playoff contention, the Broncos have lost 11 straight road games in the AFC West. Herbert is 3-3 in his career against Denver and has thrown for 3,038 yards and 20 touchdowns with just six interceptions this season.
If Denver hopes to keep its postseason hopes alive, it's going to have to hit, knock down, and sack the 25-year-old Pro Bowler. Vance Joseph’s defense struggled to bring pressure with a four-man front against C.J. Stroud last week.
For most of that game, the rookie phenom had a clean pocket before the Broncos dialed up the blitz packages that produced five total sacks. Three of those sacks came from linebacker Alex Singleton, safety P.J. Locke, and cornerback Ja'Quan McMillian.
The Broncos' defensive line won’t be facing any world beaters on the Chargers' offensive line outside of left tackle Rashawn Slater, who's only surrendered one sack in 803 snaps played this season. It’ll be critical for Denver to let the dogs loose against Herbert from a multitude of positions via defensive back blitzes, in addition to D-line and edge stunts and twists.
Chargers' offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will likely be ready for a Locke blitz on the perimeter, so it’d behoove Joseph to adjust accordingly. Perhaps it’s time to remind folks that in addition to being a ball hawk, safety Justin Simmons has 3.5 sacks and five QB hits in his career.
The point is that the Broncos will need to be unconventional with their methods in getting to Herbert. The Chargers are vulnerable in pass protection, especially in the backfield with undersized running backs Austin Ekeler and Joshua Kelley. If Denver chooses to go toe-to-toe with L.A.’s dynamic signal-caller and tries to outsmart him, Herbert will undeniably carve the Broncos up.
It’s pretty simple in this one: knock down No. 10 at all costs.
Feed Broncos RB Stable
The Broncos’ lack of efficiency running the football against the Texans created a litany of problems for Payton. Sure, the box score will reveal that Denver toted the rock 30 times for 118 yards with a 3.9 average and a score.
But stats rarely tell the entire story, as the entire offense looked sluggish running the football for most of the game. Starter Javonte Williams led the attack with just 46 yards and was the only Denver running back to get double-digit carries. Heck, the second leading rusher was Russell Wilson, who ran for his life on 10 attempts, followed by Jaleel McLaughlin with just four carries.
Maybe the Broncos getting outscored early was the reason that Payton abandoned the running game, which would be jarring considering that was the biggest contributor to their five-game winning streak.
Chargers edge rusher Khalil Mack, who once raised hell against Broncos' left tackle Garett Bolles as a Raider, will be an absolute game-wrecker once more if Denver doesn’t run the ball with all three backs. Samaje Perine, while effective in the passing and screen game, has been a tough and versatile player in his first year in Denver, and the veteran should be given more opportunities to run the football.
Williams and Perine’s rough and tough style of between-the-tackles running ought to be complemented by the lightning-quick speed of the rookie McClaughlin on the perimeter or through the line of scrimmage.
L.A.’s rushing defense has surrendered 13 total rushing touchdowns this season, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Even if the Broncos get behind early, there’s no reason to hit the panic button and make Wilson play hero ball.
Payton needs to lean on his healthy stable of backs and trust his O-line to allow Russ to manage the game and not try to rescue it.
Prioritize WR Keenan Allen as No 1. Threat
Allen is unquestionably Justin Herbert’s favorite playmaker. The five-time Pro Bowler been targeted 138 times this season, while the second leading L.A. receiver is Joshua Plamer, with just 39 targets.
At 31 years old, the 11th-year veteran has amassed 102 receptions for 1,175 yards and seven touchdowns this season. Prior to the lackluster offensive production from the Chargers’ victory against the Patriots last Sunday, Herbert targeted Allen at least 14 times in three of the last four games, making him the focal point of Moore’s offense.
Broncos All-Pro Patrick Surtain II will be the presumed cornerback who'll draw the Allen matchup, but suffered a knee injury last Sunday against the Texans. While he was able to return to action after a medical evaluation on the sideline, it was obvious that Surtain was compensating for his knee, as his coverage and agility suffered. Surtain was limited in Wednesday's practice and a full go in Thursday's.
Kareem Jackson is still out on suspension, and while Locke has been surging in his stead, it’ll be critical for the Broncos' secondary to account for Allen. It would be unwise to lock up younger players like McMillian and Fabian Moreau man-to-man with Allen. The Broncos' corners have played quite well, so hopefully, that continues if Surtain is unable to maintain his elite performance for a second straight week.
But if the players stay disciplined in zone coverage with their assignments, it’s quite possible for the Broncos' defense to withstand Allen, who will be force-fed the football in a variety of throws from Herbert. Think of Allen as the Broncos version of Courtland Sutton this season.
You know he’s going to get the ball and will likely score because there don’t seem to be many other options offensively.
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