Broncos' Probability of Returning to Playoffs in 2025 Predicted by PFF

The Denver Broncos shocked the NFL by winning 10 games and making the playoffs this past season as a Wildcard team. Are the Broncos officially back?
We think so, but not everyone is convinced. And for good reason. The Broncos were a bit of a Cinderella story last year.
Pro Football Focus' Zoltán Buday seems to at least be open to the idea that the Broncos have broken through a ceiling of sorts and will return to the playoffs in 2025, giving them a 'moderate' chance of doing so.
"With additional weapons for [Bo] Nix, the offense could take another step forward, and the defense may also receive reinforcements. However, given the strength of their division, a return to the postseason in 2025 is far from guaranteed," Buday wrote.
PFF rated every 2024 playoff team's chances at returning to the tournament, giving them either a high, moderate, or low probability. Again Buday assigned a 'moderate' outlook to the Broncos.
Let's forecast the future by first examining what could hold the Broncos back from returning. Indeed, the AFC West got better this offseason with Pete Carroll joining the Las Vegas Raiders as head coach, so, ostensibly, it'll be a somewhat stiffer path to the division crown.
The Broncos have nearly 20 players set to hit free agency, 13 of which are unrestricted, and the team has plenty of roster holes. Under Sean Payton as head coach, the Broncos have become one of the best NFL teams at avoiding the injury bug, but if that trend were to take a turn for the worst, that could certainly derail a potential playoff return.
Lastly, there's the possibility — slim though it is — of Nix suffering a sophomore slump. The factor that makes that extremely unlikely is the coaching continuity and expert guidance of Payton himself.
And what factors could cement a playoff return for Denver? Beyond inverting everything I wrote above, if the Broncos do a good job of building the nest around Nix this offseason, and upgrade the weaponry around him, sky's the limit.
The Broncos need significant upgrades at running back, tight end, and wide receiver, and I expect them to find solutions this offseason, whether via free agency or the NFL draft. The Broncos again have the salary-cap resources to be a player in free agency, and a mostly full complement of draft picks, including selections in each of the first three rounds.
Payton will need to be wise about how the team fills some of the other pressing needs and potential roster holes, like defensive line, linebacker, and safety. But overall, I would say that PFF's outlook on a Broncos playoff return in 2025 is fair.
From October on, Nix was a different player. The Broncos lost a few games in the first frame of the season that I'm confident Nix wouldn't have had they faced those opponents later on.
Such is the learning curve of an NFL rookie quarterback, and Nix has already navigated the steepest part of it. Remember, the Broncos overcame an 0-2 start to win 10 games, and I doubt they start in such a hole again in 2025.
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