Broncos' Ideal QB Contingency Plan Behind Russell Wilson
In my last article, I wrote about the best way to approach the 2023 offseason, even with Sean Payton having been named the new head coach of the Denver Broncos.
One of those things was to ensure a contingency plan was in place in case Russell Wilson doesn't bounce back in 2023. Some feedback I have received was that people think I've already written off Wilson for 2023.
That's not the case, though. If I truly believed Wilson wouldn't bounce back in 2023, I wouldn't talk about a contingency plan and, instead, would have talked about something like cutting him regardless of the salary cap hit or even benching him before the season starts.
A contingency plan isn't in place because you assume your initial plan won't work out. A contingency plan is there in case you need to shift away from your initial plan. You hope you don't have to use the contingency plan, but it's there if needed.
Yes, what's in the best interest of the Broncos is for Wilson to demonstrate he can be the quarterback for the next few seasons. And to give Payton credit, he has shown he can get production out of multiple quarterbacks.
On one hand, though, the final two games the Broncos played are a small sample size for Wilson, in which he still made some important mistakes. On the other hand, one can correctly point out that, while Wilson may have shown signs of decline in 2021, nobody should have expected a steep decline in 2022.
And while we can't say for certain what will happen with Wilson in 2023 either way, we do know that his 2025 salary is guaranteed for injury. If Wilson succeeds in 2023, this is no longer a concern, but if Wilson struggles early, you run the risk of being on the hook for that 2025 salary if you don't bench him.
Thus, a contingency plan needs to be in place. It can, however, be pieced together so that the Broncos have flexibility whether Wilson plays at a high level or he doesn't. Here's how it works.
Contingency Plan
The first step is to determine the ideal veteran backup. You want it to be somebody who has shown that he can at least hold the fort down in case the starter is out with an injury.
Brett Rypien is an option, and he's a restricted free agent, so he wouldn't cost much money to retain if you use the right of first refusal tender. Teddy Bridgewater has experience in Payton's system. Jacoby Brissett plays a similar style to Wilson. Baker Mayfield may be interested in working with Payton.
Those aren't the only options, but in any case, what you will do is get the backup under a one-year deal. That way, you have no commitment beyond 2024, but you have some peace of mind knowing there is an experienced backup on the roster.
As for drafting a quarterback, you do that in the later rounds, preferably after a trade-down. In this case, you're not just looking at a contingency plan for Wilson but for the long-term picture at backup QB.
By drafting a QB in 2023, you get the player under four years on a low-cost salary. Even if he never takes a snap in 2023, you may have your backup QB for 2024 who gets a year to learn Payton's system and what is expected.
When the 2023 season is over, and you know where things stand, you move forward accordingly. If Wilson struggles and you have to bench him, you will at least have a drafted QB under contract who has learned Payton's system.
But if Wilson excels, you let the veteran backup depart and continue to develop the QB you drafted in 2023 to be the backup.
If things don't work out with the drafted QB in 2023, there's less risk involved in moving on because he's on a cheaper contract with no guaranteed money after 2023.
Bottom Line
I understand not everyone shares my skepticism, but it has nothing to do with believing that things are destined not to work. All it means is that we've been down this road before, with anticipation about a headline-making move, only not to see things turn out as expected.
None of that means that history will repeat itself. But it does mean that, after each year, you need to learn from what happened and understand the best approach moving forward, particularly given the surrounding circumstances.
Again, it's in the best interest of the Broncos for Wilson to excel. But while one shouldn't assume he's finished, one shouldn't assume the opposite is true. Having the contingency plan in place is needed in case the worst should happen, but the hope is that the Broncos won't have to use that plan.
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