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Here's why Drafting a QB in Round One Should Still be on the Table for Broncos in 2020
The Denver Broncos are 3-6 heading into their Week 10 bye. Despite the disappointing record, things do feel like they are finally starting to inch in the right direction at Dove Valley.
After an exciting 24-19 win over the preseason darling Cleveland Browns where the Broncos showed out both defensively and as an offense starting to click in the new scheme, which highlighted this team’s best young playmakers, there's reason for optimism as to where this team is headed on the field.
Even so, the Broncos are set for another reshuffle this upcoming offseason with so many current rostered players set to hit the free-agent market, a plethora of projected cap dollars to spend, and a nice reserve of 2020 draft capital. Even with plenty of young exciting options emerging and the players and coaches seemingly improving each week, the quarterback position remains a massive question mark for this team.
Football is a complicated game with many interacting variables and moving parts that determine whether a team will succeed or not. This is true from team-building, how a team performs over a season, and down to the outcome of every single individual play.
All About the Quarterback
However, one constant remains relatively true; the team with the better quarterback tends to win. Football is a team sport and players’ success depends on everyone executing ‘their job’, but not all jobs are created equal in value and importance. The quarterback reigns supreme.
When it comes to deciding whether to draft a quarterback high, the formula is simple.
Does the team have a QB they believe to be franchise-caliber already in place?
If the answer is ‘yes’, look to surround that franchise arm with talent. If it's ‘no’, the next question should be, 'Is there a quarterback the team has evaluated to be a long-term option at franchise arm?'
If that's a ‘no’, proceed accordingly to set up the team to be ready to find that guy. If ‘yes’, it comes down to cost and availability. In the end, it comes down to doing everything within reason to find a solution at the quarterback position.
The Broncos had a shot at one of the top quarterbacks in the 2018 draft, reportedly trying to move up to the first overall selection, as well as to the No. 2 overall pick during the months leading up to round one, likely targeting one or both of Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold. In the end, the cost to move up did not equate to Denver's evaluation of the quarterback and how trading so much capital would hinder the team’s ability to be successful.
Perhaps the Broncos should have taken Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen at pick No. 5 in hindsight. Circumstances would have been different and perhaps those guys don’t succeed in Denver like they have in Baltimore and Buffalo, respectively, but it’s always fun to ponder such alternate realities.
The Lock Enigma
The Broncos did end up walking out with a quarterback they graded highly in the 2019 draft when they selected Missouri's Drew Lock No. 42 overall. The Broncos had three chances to take Lock — at No. 10 overall, 20 overall, and 41 — but in the end traded up back up to 42 to pick the SEC’s second all-time leading passer.
If the Broncos were 100% sold on Lock, it is highly improbable they would have let him slide out of the first round, let alone not use their 10th overall pick on him. Denver liked him, sure, but not enough to not risk having another team select him before he fell to them in the second round.
At 42, Lock simply presented too much arm talent, upside, and value as a projected scheme fit at the one position a team must have to compete in the league. The tools were evident, but it did seem like the ‘best-case’ plan for Lock was to be given at least one season to develop and work on his deficiencies and prepare for the NFL game.
The plan was to play Joe Flacco for the entirety of the 2019 season and give Lock a year to develop. Not only was it going to take some time to ‘reset’ some of the problematic base mechanics and footwork with Lock, which led to accuracy and precision problems throwing the football in college, but would help him absorb a more complicated and mentally demanding offensive system.
Flacco was supposed to be a viable enough option that Lock would be given time to grow, not be rushed, and give him the best chance to be ‘the guy’ for this team over the next decade. Falling to the second round does indicate he was never viewed as a slam dunk 100% guaranteed guy, but another lottery ticket with tools that could maybe be the guy.
Even if Lock doesn’t end up being the Broncos franchise quarterback, the methodology was not poor. Finding a quarterback in the draft can come down to luck just as much as evaluation. The draft is sports’ biggest crapshoot after all.
However, as plans tend to do, things did not go accordingly, as Flacco absolutely flubbed as a starting quarterback for the Broncos. Blame the play calling, blame the offensive line, blame the front office, blame the scheme, blame Flacco himself.
In the end, the only thing that was evident was Flacco not living up to the team’s expectations as the experiment failed rapidly. Furthermore, the plan didn’t work because Lock injured his thumb and has subsequently spent all season in injured reserve, not only not playing, but not practicing either. Lock might get on the field soon, but until he does, Brandon Allen will be starting under center.
Team Needs Answers on Lock ASAP
Still, the Broncos would be best served to find out whether they have ‘anything’ in Lock. With just seven games left in the season, Lock is still a relative unknown whether or not he can be the answer for the Broncos at the quarterback position.
The thumb sprain suffered in preseason has set his development trajectory all cattywampus. Perhaps if he hadn’t injured his throwing hand, Lock could have been the one that came in this past Sunday and conducted the offense to the ‘grand’ total of 24 points.
Allen will continue to start for the Broncos for at least the next two weeks following the bye. Perhaps the Broncos found lightning in a bottle and Allen can be a viable solution, but given all his previous tape, he seems more likely to be a step towards the Trevor Siemian realm of quarterback play.
Don’t mistake execution and talent making plays on offense for the quarterback play. Allen played ‘well’ graded on the curve, but it is probably right to be skeptical at best at this point. Now did the Broncos perhaps find a viable cheap and young back up option? That is the right question.
It is still very likely Lock will be given a chance to show out at some point this season. Despite the Week 9 win, Allen did not look amazing, and going up against the talented defenses of the Minnesota Vikings and Buffalo Bills in the next two games will likely put the kibosh on any thoughts he can be a viable long-term solution.
Sample Size
However, would a five games for Drew Lock be enough of a sample size to truly know if he can be the quarterback? It has been widely reported that this offense is quite demanding mentally for the quarterback position.
From the complicated and lengthy play-calls in the huddle, to the progressions and reads (both pre and post-snap), to developing proper under-center footwork and dropbacks, Lock has a lot of areas he needs to show improvement in for the team to feel secure at quarterback. Even still, the Broncos should not ‘tune out’ if potential upgrades become available at the quarterback position.
After the 2019 season is over, the Broncos will have a year's worth of data on Lock. True, it will have not been on-the-field production in ‘meaningful’ games, but the Broncos will have information on how Lock did in practice, with the playbook, in the film room, in preseason, and hopefully, some live-action to close out this season.
Denver will have all that new information on top of their 2019 draft evaluation and scouting report. He might be the guy as the Broncos’ long-term option at quarterback, but he might not as well. Through free agency or the draft, the Broncos would be short-sighted not to consider all possibilities.
All Options Must be on the Table in 2020
Whether it be via trade/free agency and acquiring someone like Teddy Bridgewater or Cam Newton, or in the NFL Draft, perhaps jockeying for position to land Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert in the top-10, or trading back up into round one for Jake Fromm, Jacob Eason, Jalen Hurts, or Jordan Love, quarterback must remain on the table in the draft.
Perhaps, in the end, Drew Lock does end up being the answer, and the team ‘wasted’ a first on another quarterback. That won’t matter in history as all that matters whether the team ends up finding the guy.
Perhaps nothing will send Broncos Country down the road towards PTSD than bringing up the names Paxton Lynch and Garett Bolles. Entering the 2017 draft, the Broncos already had their young, promising, highly-drafted quarterback in Lynch, who had yet to receive much of a chance but the team had just made a large investment in to replace Peyton Manning under center.
The Broncos also had an absolutely massive need at left tackle after letting Russell Okung walk. The team was in a desperate spot needing to draft tackle, and did so taking Garett Bolles 20th overall. However, in hindsight that was obviously not the right call.
Rather than evaluating the options in front of them and targeting two of the best young quarterbacks in football in Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, the Broncos stuck with Lynch and drafted for need. True, the team still would have had a massive hole on the offensive line at tackle, but having a Mahomes or Watson in place would give the team a decade-plus to find the line. Once a team finds its quarterback, especially one on a rookie contract, everything else tends to fall into place.
Is Lock the next Lynch? Would a first-round tackle end up being the next Bolles? Probably not.
However, could one of Tagovailoa, Burrow, Herbert or someone else end up being the next great young quarterback? Possibly.
Bottom Line
Even if Lock hits, its about stacking the deck to give the team the best chance to find the most valuable, non-negotiable position in American sports — the quarterback. The evaluation should come down to Lock, and all the information the Broncos have on him, both from Missouri and his time in Denver, vs. their evaluation and the cost to acquire the available 2020 first-round quarterback.
Hopefully, correcting their thought process from the 2017 draft, it shouldn’t matter the cost already sunken into Lock or even needs elsewhere on the roster.
It should have been Lynch vs. Watson and Mahomes in 2017, just like it should be Lock vs. (insert 2020 draft QB of choice). It is a difficult decision but in the end, it has a quite simple premise.
Do the Broncos know they have their franchise quarterback already on the roster? If the answer is no, all options must be on the table.
Follow Nick on Twitter @NickKendellMHH and @MileHighHuddle.
