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First-Round Mock Draft Based on Need
Does this solve the Denver Broncos' biggest roster need?
The 2024 NFL draft is one week away. Countless mock drafts and trade-up scenarios have been tossed out. Everyone is trying to figure out what each team plans to do and who goes off the board first.
But what if every team stayed put in the first round and took the best player available at a position of need? What would such a first round look like?
It was a few years ago that I did a mock draft using the approach of "best player at position of need," but the Denver Broncos haven't had a first-round pick in two years. Now that they are drafting in the first round again, I'm bringing the mock draft back.
The mock draft gives everyone a chance to see what a draft looks like if teams solely focus on need and the best player available and, in particular, who the Broncos select. I used Pro Football Network's player rankings as my draft board. Other sites, of course, have different rankings, so such a mock draft could differ depending on how sites rank players.
Let's take a look at how this mock draft turned out.
1. Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB
It's no surprise that Williams goes off the board at No. 1 overall. He's the best QB prospect in the draft and the Bears need a QB. And he's the player just about everyone expects will go off the board at No. 1 overall.
2. Washington Commanders: Drake Maye, QB
The Commanders need a quarterback but there are many who have suggested that Jayden Daniels is their guy. But on PFN's draft board, Maye is ranked ahead of Daniels. I thus stuck with my criteria and went with Maye here.
3. New England Patriots: Jayden Daniels, QB
The talk is that the Patriots want to trade down, but my criteria means they stay put. And because QB is the biggest need and Daniels is the top-ranked QB, he's the pick here.
4. Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR
The Cardinals need a No. 1 wide receiver and Harrison is the top-ranked prospect at the position. It would not surprise me to see the Cardinals take Harrison here in the actual NFL Draft, though one can't rule out a trade down.
5. Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR
Wide receiver is the biggest need the Chargers have and Nabers is the top-ranked receiver at this point. Thus, he's the pick to give Justin Herbert a much-needed weapon. I would expect the Chargers to take a receiver, but it may be somebody else.
6. New York Giants: Rome Odunze, WR
We've got a run at the receiver position to start off this mock draft. The Giants need a wide receiver in a big way and Odunze fits the bill. It's possible the Giants could go the QB route, but that wasn't listed as a big need by PFN (though I imagine plenty will disagree with that assessment).
7. Tennesee Titans: Joe Alt, OT
We have our first offensive lineman coming off the board. The Titans are a team that might consider a quarterback, but they need a lot of help on the offensive line as well. In fact, I wouldn't be surprise to see the Titans go with an offensive tackle in the actual draft.
8. Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE
The Falcons signed Kirk Cousins and are committed to him for two years, so I don't see them taking a QB early. Edge rusher is their biggest need and Turner is the top prospect at the position.
9. Chicago Bears: Laiatu Latu, EDGE
After quarterback, edge rusher is the biggest need that PFN lists. Latu is the top prospect available at this point so he's the pick here. In the actual draft, though, I could see the Bears looking at a receiver or perhaps trading down at this spot.
10. New York Jets: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT
While wide receiver is the Jets' biggest need, there weren't as many wide receiver prospects ranked as high as their next need, that being offensive tackle. Fashanu is the top-ranked tackle prospect at this point of the draft.
11. Minnesota Vikings: JJ McCarthy, QB
The Vikings need a quarterback and many expect they will trade up to get one in the actual draft. With no trades allowed in this mock, the Vikings still get a QB early, as McCarthy is ranked in PFN's top 10.
12. Denver Broncos: Jared Verse, EDGE
This one was a tough call, given that quarterback, interior defender and receiver are more pressing needs. But the Broncos don't have a true game changer on the edge and Verse is ranked fairly high, so he was the pick here.
13. Las Vegas Raiders: Taliese Fuaga, OT
Quarterback is the Raiders' biggest need, per PFN, but with none ranked high at this point, I went with their next need. Fuaga was the top tackle prospect at this point.
14. New Orleans Saints: Troy Fautanu, OT
The Saints could use an offensive tackle and Fautanu fits the bill. The Saints have been aggressive in moving up the draft board in the past, so it's worth asking if they might move up a few spots in the actual draft.
15. Indianapolis Colts: Terrion Arnold, CB
While wide receiver is the Colts' biggest need, none were ranked high enough to justify taking. Thus, I went to their next need, that being cornerback. And, thus, Arnold is the first cornerback off the board.
16. Seattle Seahawks: Byron Murphy II, DL
Offensive guard, center and linebacker are bigger needs for the Seahawks but none justified the pick here. Interior defender is also a need, though, so the first such player at that position is off the board.
17. Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinyon Mitchell, CB
Cornerback is the Jaguars' biggest need, per PFN, and thus Mitchell comes off the board in this mock. In the actual draft, the Jaguars may be another team to keep an eye on about moving up the board for a player.
18. Cincinnati Bengals: Johnny Newton, DL
Interior defense is the Bengals' biggest need, thus I went with Newton, the highest-ranked prospect at the position at this point of the draft.
19. Los Angeles Rams: Nate Wiggins, CB
The Rams fill arguably their biggest need with this pick. In the actual draft, it wouldn't surprise to see the Rams go with defense, though it may be a pass rusher instead of a corner.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT
We get another offensive tackle coming off the board -- our fifth one of this mock draft. It's the biggest need for the Steelers, too.
21. Miami Dolphins: JC Latham, OT
And our sixth offensive tackle comes off the board in this mock. Though interior offensive line is a bigger need, Latham was ranked higher on the board.
22. Philadelphia Eagles: Cooper DeJean, S
Cornerback and linebacker are bigger needs for the Eagles but none were ranked high enough to justify the pick. Thus, I went with the next need (safety) and the top-ranked safety on the board, who was in the top five prospects when the Eagles' pick came up.
23. Minnesota Vikings: Brian Thomas Jr., WR
Though I expect the Vikings to use this pick in a move up the board in the actual draft, this mock doesn't allow for that. And after addressing QB earlier, the Vikings' top needs were, in order, interior defender, offensive guard, cornerback and wide receiver. Of those positions, Thomas was the highest-ranked player.
24. Dallas Cowboys: Graham Barton, C
The Cowboys need help on the offensive line, with offensive tackle and center the top two needs. Barton was ranked in the top five prospects at this point, so he's the pick.
25. Green Bay Packes: Tyler Guyton, OT
The Packers' top needs, per PFN, are linebacker, cornerback, offensive guard, offensive tackle and safety. Guyton was the highest-ranked player at those positions, so he was the pick.
26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Chop Robinson, EDGE
After not being able to address a team's top need for several picks, we have one here in the Buccaneers. Edge rusher is the biggest need and Robinson is ranked in the top five among avaialble prospects.
27. Arizona Cardinals: Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB
The Cardinals need an interior defensive lineman but none were ranked high enough to justify the pick. I then went to their next need (cornerback) and McKinstry was in the top five of available players.
28. Buffalo Bills: Adonai Mitchell, WR
The Bills are in big need of a wide receiver and Mitchell was ranked among the top five prospects. The Bills are another team I could see wanting to move up the board to get a player.
29. Detroit Lions: Xavier Worthy, WR
I had to rule out the following positions of need for the Lions because players weren't ranked high enough: edge rusher, cornerback, defensive tackle and offensive guard. That left wide receiver, making Worthy the pick here. He's the sixth recevier taken in this mock.
30. Baltimore Ravens: Keon Coleman, WR
And Coleman makes it the seventh receiver to come off the board in this mock draft. He also happens to fill the biggest need the Ravens have.
31. San Francisco 49ers: Kingsley Suamataia, OT
Another team gets its biggest need filled in the first round, this being the Niners who have offensive tackle as PFN's biggest need to fill.
32. Kansas City Chiefs: Jordan Morgan, OT
Wide receiver is the Chiefs' biggest need but none were ranked high enough. We thus go to their next need, offensive tackle, and Morgan is the pick. That makes nine offensive tackles taken in this mock draft.
Final Thoughts
You can see that things turn out somewhat unexpected if teams solely focused on priority needs and aren't allowed to trade up. Notabley, top tight end prospect Brock Bowers wasn't taken when many project him to be off the board at some point in the first round.
While I don't expect the draft to go exactly like this, it does give you an idea about what happens when you focus entirely on need. But as we've seen, teams will focus more on players they love, even if that player doesn't always fill the biggest need.
We'll likely see a different first round unfold — the Broncos included — when the draft starts April 25.
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