Analytics Predict What Role Awaits Broncos Rookie S JL Skinner
The Denver Broncos made only two late-round draft selections in the 2023 NFL draft. With limited draft picks, finding a diamond in the rough would require a keen eye.
When it comes to such unpolished gems, JL Skinner is one to watch. With their sixth-round selection, the Broncos grabbed the safety, and he appears to have the makings of a late-round gem.
Typically, sixth-round selections take time to develop. It's not common to find rookie starters or players who even make the team, for that matter. Taking a deep look at how sixth-round drafted players in the past have fared in the NFL over time can offer some future predictions for Skinner.
The Probability Metric
The first step is determining the probability of becoming a primary starter in the NFL based on position and round. The probability of a player drafted in the first half of the sixth round becoming a primary starter is 0.082, regardless of position, which is low.
However, safeties tend to fare well when drafted in Round 6, relatively speaking. They have a probability of becoming a primary starter of 0.152, which is the third-highest of all positions. This would indicate that Skinner has an edge over other positions drafted in the same round.
This gives some insight into how a player's overall career might pan out, but what about their first year in the league? For sixth-round rookies, the analytics don’t paint a great picture, but there have been a fair number who have started at least one game.
In 2021, three players (7%) drafted in the sixth round became primary starters for their respective teams in their rookie season, and that number stayed the same in 2022. In 2021, 17 rookies (39%) started at least one game, and in 2022, that number dropped to 11 rookies (26%). Only one started all 17 games. The average starts in 2021 was four games, and in 2022, it was six for all sixth-round rookies.
How the Metric Translates
The simple truth is, it's unlikely that Skinner will start games as a rookie. The Broncos recently re-signed Kareem Jackson to pair once again with Justin Simmons.
This will move every safety down a slot when it comes to the 'next man up' this season. Furthermore, the team has a promising third-year safety in Caden Sterns, who was likely the starter before Jackson returned.
The Broncos also brought back P.J. Locke, who played more than adequately on defense when called upon and is a valuable special teams player. Finally, the Broncos drafted Delarrin Turner-Yell last year, and he showed enough to make the final 53-man roster.
Skinner's Outlook
This does not bode well for Skinner’s chances of seeing starting time, or for even making the final roster. He will have to impress during camp to unseat some of the incumbents.
The Broncos' safety group did struggle with injuries last season, and if it does so again, Skinner could move up the depth chart. It's more likely that he will begin on the practice squad and get 'called up' when needed, rather than push some vets off the roster on final cut-down day.
Out of all the rookies, Skinner seemed to fall farther down the draft than expected. It's quite possible that his injury during the pre-draft process impacted his draft stock, and he could be viewed as a higher selection, which would indicate an increase in his probability of starting, but until training camp starts, that remains to be seen.
Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.
Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
