© Kirthmon F. Dozier / USA TODAY NETWORK
Analyzing Broncos HC Sean Payton's Comment on J.J. McCarthy After Private Workout
Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos have a tectonic decision to make and little more than two weeks to do it.
Before the NFL Combine, Denver Broncos fans weren't talking much about Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy. However, after his buzz-generating week in Indianapolis, McCarthy's profile within Broncos Country grew as fast as his stock did around the NFL.
The Broncos were in attendance at the Michigan Wolverines pro day, but head coach Sean Payton — the biggest football decision-maker in Dove Valley — was not. However, we've since learned that Payton was very much paying attention to McCarthy's pro day. We also gleaned a few additional details about the National Champion's private workout with the Broncos, at which Payton was most definitely present.
“I wasn’t at J.J.’s pro day, but we had a private (workout with him) the next day where we sent him a bunch of information, spent four or five hours with him, just made him throw all over again,’’ Payton said via 9NEWS' Mike Klis from the NFL's annual owners' meetings. “I think it’s all part of the process. I think it can lead to a more efficient and effective decision.”
The decision Payton speaks to isn't as simple as weighing the pros and cons of drafting McCarthy with the No. 12 overall pick in the draft, which is little more than two weeks away on April 25. First, the Broncos would need to make the decision that McCarthy is The Guy ™, and from there, figure out how to maneuver in the draft to guarantee they can land him.
Pre-Combine, McCarthy's draft stock around NFL media was similar to that of Oregon's Bo Nix or even Washington's Michael Penix Jr. — a mid-to-late first-round quarterback. Many draftniks even had McCarthy graded as a Day 2 guy, due largely to how former Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh utilized him as a passer, which wasn't all that much, relatively speaking, especially in comparison to his fellow QBs in the 2024 draft class.
Harbaugh has since taken his coaching talents to the Los Angeles Chargers, right in Denver's divisional backyard. Ahead of the NFL Combine, Harbaugh revealed his view of McCarthy within the scope of the 2024 draft, and even made a bold prediction about when he'll hear his name called.
"Let me make a prediction," Harbaugh said back in early February during an appearance on the Rich Eisen Show. "Don't be surprised if he goes all the way to No.1 quarterback off the board."
Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh watches with quarterback J.J. McCarthy (9) as his team prepares for its
Joe Rondone / USA TODAY NETWORK
Harbaugh wasn't done laying the groundwork for McCarthy's rapid rise up the draft boards.
"When people see him throw in person, when they watch him run, they see the athleticism, when they do the interviews, and they start digging into how this young man is wired, and he's only 21. Mark my words, don't be surprised when he's maybe the No.1 quarterback off the board," Harbaugh said.
Any time someone says, "Mark my words," one is inclined to sit up a little straighter and lend more credence to what's being said, whether it's Dad drawing the line, or a no-nonsense coach like Harbaugh making a prediction. It may have had a similar effect on the NFL at large, and maybe even Payton, who isn't that far removed from competing with Harbaugh for the Broncos' head-coaching vacancy ahead of the 2023 season.
Cut to today, and most draftniks don't see McCarthy slipping past the No. 5 overall pick, and not because the Chargers currently hold it. With Justin Herbert under center, Harbaugh has his franchise quarterback installed and ready to hit the ground running, which makes the Chargers a prime candidate to trade back with a QB-desperate team.
Take, for example, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. predicting that the Minnesota Vikings leapfrog the Broncos and many other teams, trading up with the Chargers to take McCarthy at No. 5 overall. Minnesota has more draft capital than Denver this year to compete for potential trade-ups, so if the Vikings were to make that move, Payton's only recourse — if he has indeed fallen 'in love' with McCarthy — would be to cut a deal with the Arizona Cardinals at No. 4.
It just so happens that Arizona GM Monti Ossenfort has made it known among his NFL front-office colleagues that the Cardinals are open for business at No. 4, with a still-young Kyler Murray in the fold. You know, the former No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft.
But what would it cost the Broncos to leap eight spots in the draft? Frankly, it could cost as much as three first-round picks — this year's, next year's, and even 2026. Or, if you're real partial to that 2026 first-rounder, how about this year's, next year's, and Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II?
Yeah. Pricey. But tis ever thus when it comes to obtaining the most precious and sought-after commodity in the NFL: a franchise quarterback.
I can feel readers shaking your heads even now about the prospect of the Broncos, who haven't made a first-round selection since 2021, potentially skipping out on Day 1 of the draft in each of the next two years. However...
Considering that the combined efforts of defensive stalwarts like Von Miller, Aqib Talib, Chris Harris, Jr., Justin Simmons, and Surtain himself (think of all those Pro Bowls!) have been unable to deliver even one single, solitary playoff berth since Peyton Manning retired, perhaps viewing the prospect of such a draft-day trade-up as being too costly or untenable is bass-ackward.
We know how long-time Broncos GM John Elway viewed the subject. After Super Bowl 50, Elway became convinced, seemingly, that with all the defensive talent his roster boasted, the Broncos were one middle-of-the-road quarterback away from winning it all again.
Under the new ownership of the Walton/Penner group, and the still-fresh leadership of the veteran Payton, maybe the Broncos are asking a different question when it comes to securing the one roster asset that has eluded this team since Super Bowl 50: what wouldn't Denver be willing to pay if it meant landing a bonafide franchise QB in the draft?
Someone a QB whisperer like Payton could build around and make some hay?
The Takeaway
Unfortunately, even if the Broncos view McCarthy as The Guy ™, there really isn't a way to guarantee he lands in Denver. Even though he's rarely mocked higher than No. 4 overall, what if Harbaugh is right, and McCarthy ends up being the first QB off the board, going No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears?
Then a Caleb Williams, or Jayden Daniels, or a Drake Maye gets pushed down the board, one of whom ends up ripe for the taking at No. 4 overall — assuming the Broncos traded a king's ransom to swap with the Cardinals in our figurative projection. You, the reader, might think one of those guys is just as good, if not better than McCarthy.
But if Payton only has eyes for McCarthy, any one of those very talented QBs could be a distant second to Denver. Still, if the Broncos made such a trade, mortgaging the next three drafts to secure the No. 4 overall pick, any of Williams, Daniels, or Maye would make for one heck of a consolation prize, eh?
That's why Payton and his GM counterpart George Paton get paid the big bucks. These are big-boy decisions, even if the richest owners in the NFL are bank-rolling them. But I don't envy Payton and Paton, that's for sure.
The NFL draft is a crap-shoot, even if it's an educated one. The Broncos might opt to back away from the high-stakes table, and take their chances at No. 12 overall.
If that's how the cookie crumbles, Broncos Country had better start getting real comfortable and familiar with names like Nix and Penix because with the likes of Patrick Mahomes and the aforementioned Herbert on the schedule twice this year, Payton can't afford to go into training camp with the worst quarterback situation in the NFL and Jarrett Stidham on all the posters around town as the team's QB1.
And the AFC West arms race marches on.
Follow Mile High Huddle on X and Facebook and subscribe on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!
