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BPA vs. Need: First-Round Mock Draft | All 32 Picks

How would the first round of the NFL Draft fall if teams only selected based on need? It happens more often than you might think.

Everybody loves to debate mock drafts, but last year, I took a different approach by approaching a mock with this idea: What if every team, in the first round, took a player at the greatest position of need?

The purpose of that exercise is to demonstrate how the board falls if every team was fixated on biggest need rather than on focusing on the best value. It shows that, if everyone focuses solely on need, some teams could be reaching on certain players, while other teams could find quality players falling into their laps.

By no means do I expect my 'mock draft based on need' to be how the board falls, but if that's how every team approached the draft, what would it look like? And for Broncos fans, do they get a player they want?

Let's roll with this mock draft. Here was the criteria I used:

  • Used The Draft Network's mock draft simulator.
  • Used TDN's player rankings, rather than its predictive board.
  • Used TDN's listing of team's biggest needs.
  • No trades allowed.

From there, I looked at the 10 top-rated players when each pick came up, then looked at the team's biggest need. If a player in the top-10 fit that need, he was the pick. If not, I went to the second need, then the third, and so on — until I found a player ranked in the top-10 at that point.

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How did the draft turn out? Here it is.

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

No surprise here, even with my 'best player' criteria. Quarterback was the biggest need for the Bengals and Burrow is the top-rated quarterback in the draft.

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State

This one isn't surprising either. TDN rates Young as the best player in the draft and Washington's biggest need is at edge rusher.

3. Detroit Lions: Jeffrey Okudah, CB, Ohio State

The Lions really need a cornerback and TDN has Okudah ranked third overall. I would think this is the likely pick, unless the Lions trade down.

4. New York Giants: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

The Giants really need offensive line help, with offensive tackle being the biggest need. Wills wasn't the top-rated player at this point, but he was in the top-10. I could see this being the pick, but the Giants could go a different direction.

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

We all know the Dolphins need a quarterback more than anything else. Tagovailoa was rated high at this point, so he was the pick. This is another pick I could see happening in the actual draft, barring somebody trading up to jump ahead of the Dolphins.

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Here's another team with quarterback listed as its biggest need. Herbert isn't rated as high as he was a year ago, but he was in the top 10 at this point. What the Chargers actually do remains to be seen, though.

7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

The Panthers' biggest need is on the defensive interior and Brown is highly rated. This is another pick I could see becoming reality.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

Though the Cardinals extended D.J. Humphries, they still need offensive tackle help and Wirfs was in the top-10 at this pick. I could see the Cardinals taking an offensive tackle, but they could go another direction or perhaps trade down.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina

The biggest need the Jaguars have, per TDN, is on the defensive interior. Kinlaw is a player I could see going in the top-10. However, whether he's the guy the Jaguars pick, I'm not so sure. I could see the Jaguars looking at several positions at this point.

10. Cleveland Browns: Mehki Becton, OT, Louisville

This may be another pick that doesn't surprise anyone. The Browns have been linked to Becton by several draft analysts. And considering offensive tackle is Cleveland's biggest need, I won't be surprised if this pick becomes reality.

11. New York Jets: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

Here's another team that has offensive tackle as its biggest need. Thomas was in the top-10, so he was the pick. I'm not sold on him being the actual player taken here, though. I could see the Jets looking at other players or possibly trading down.

12. Las Vegas Raiders: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

TDN has Lamb ranked as its top receiver and it was the Raiders' biggest need, so he was the pick here. Of course, the Raiders could look at another receiver in the actual draft.

13. San Francisco 49ers: Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

Cornerback is the Niners' biggest need. Fulton might be considered by some to be a slight reach, but the combination of him being in the top-10 at this point, coupled with it being the Niners' biggest need, meant he was the pick. I will say I don't expect Fulton to be the pick here. The Niners will likely take a different player.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

The Buccaneers' biggest need is offensive tackle, but none were ranked in the top-10 when their pick came up. So I went to the next need TDN listed, which was running back. Of course, that means a player I don't think will go this high became the pick. I think Swift will be taken in the first round, but not this high. But this is what happens when you focus too much on need — you start reaching for players.

15. Denver Broncos: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

TDN lists wide receiver as Denver's biggest need. Lo and behold, Jeudy fell into my lap. Of course, I don't expect Jeudy to be there at pick No. 15. But this goes to show you that, when too many teams focus on need over best player available, quality players can fall down the board.

16. Atlanta Falcons: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

Cornerback is Atlanta's biggest need and Henderson was in the top-10 at this point. I would say Henderson would be a slight reach at this point, so I don't think he'll be the actual pick, though.

17. Dallas Cowboys: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

Cornerback is also the biggest need for the Cowboys and Gladney was in the top-10 here. Once again, this could be considered a slight reach, so I'm not expecting him to be the actual pick.

18. Miami Dolphins: Xavier McKinney, DB, Alabama

The Dolphins needed offensive line help more than safety help, but no offensive linemen ranked in the top-10 here. However, the Dolphins have a lot of needs, so McKinney would certainly help. Also, this is probably the range I expect McKinney to go. But given how many needs the Dolphins had, they might not be taking McKinney here.

19. Las Vegas Raiders: Neville Gallimore, DL, Oklahoma

The Raiders needed a cornerback more but none were ranked in the top-10 at this point. The next need on the list was defensive interior and Gallimore just slipped into the top-10. I would definitely say Gallimore is a reach at this spot and I'm pretty sure the Raiders won't make him the pick at this spot.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars: Grant Delpit, DB, LSU

The Jaguars are another team with a need for cornerback more than for safety, but with still no cornerbacks in the top-10, Delpit was the pick here. I've seen opinions on Delpit are all over the place, thus I would call this a reach — but given how divided opinions are, it's possible Delpit goes off the board around this point.

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Let's get this out of the way: The Eagles' top need is at wide receiver and Ruggs was still on the board. With that said, of course I don't expect Ruggs to last this long. But this is what happens if you prioritize need over everything else — and it's why good teams don't do that and seek out the best player available rather than fixate on need.

22. Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

The Vikings' biggest need was cornerback, but there were still no cornerbacks ranked in the top-10 at this point. That brought me to wide receiver and Jefferson was the top guy. I think this is a reasonable point to take him, though I think it's more likely the board falls so the Vikings can get a cornerback.

23. New England Patriots: Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU

Quarterback is the Patriots' biggest need, but no quarterbacks were ranked in the top-10 at this point. So it was on to wide receiver and Reagor was ranked in the top-10. I imagine some might think Reagor is a slight reach, plus I believe the Patriots go a different direction than taking a receiver.

24. New Orleans, Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

This is the ultimate example of why teams shouldn't draft solely based on need. The Saints are the first team I ran across who have off-ball linebacker as the top need, so Simmons, who was ranked fourth overall on TDN's board, fell all the way down to here. It goes without saying that I will be shocked if Simmons lasts this long. But this is why I ran the draft the way I did — to demonstrate that, not only do teams start reaching on players, but they pass up on better players, who fall down the board and wind up with teams who never expect to get them.

25. Minnesota Vikings: K’Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

Still no cornerback was ranked high enough, so I went to edge rusher and Chaisson was the pick. I expect Chaisson to be gone in the top-20, so of course, I believe the Vikings will be taking a different player here.

26. Miami Dolphins: Zack Baun, LB, Wisconsin

No offensive linemen were ranked high enough at this point, so I moved to edge rusher and Baun was the pick. It's possible he goes off the board in the lower third of the draft, but he may not be the guy the Dolphins actually take if he's there.

27. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State

Edge rusher is Seattle's biggest need, Gross-Matos was in the top-10 and he became the pick. It's possible Gross-Matos is taken in the lower third of the first round. But as with the Dolphins, he may not be the player the Seahawks take.

28. Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

The Ravens' biggest need is off-ball linebacker and that meant Queen was the pick. I could see this player as a possibility for who the Ravens take here, assuming they don't make a move up or down the board.

29., Tennessee Titans: A.J. Epenesa, edge, Iowa

Edge rusher is Tennessee's biggest need and Epenesa was ranked in the top-10. I view this the same as I did with the edge rushers that the Dolphins and Seahawks took in this mock, as players I think could go in the bottom third of the draft, but might not be the player the Titans actually take.

30. Green Bay Packers: Laviska Shenault, Jr., WR, Colorado

Wide receiver is the Packers' biggest need and Shenault was the top-ranked player at that position in the top-10 at this point. Because Shenault has injury concerns, I don't expect him to be taken this high.

31. San Francisco 49ers: K.J. Hamler, WR, Penn State

Wide receiver was next on the list of the Niners' needs and Hamler was ranked in the top-10. As with Shenault, I don't think Hamler goes off the board in the first round.

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Cesar Ruiz, IOL, Michigan

The Chiefs' biggest need is at cornerback, but there still weren't any ranked in the top-10 when the pick came up. So the nod went to the next need, the interior offensive line, and that made Ruiz the pick. It's possible he's the pick, but the Chiefs could look at other players or might even trade out of the first round.

Final Thoughts

As you can see, fixating on biggest need led to some picks you might not expect and a couple of players who I'm sure everyone agrees have no chance of falling that far down the board. But that's the point of the exercise — to show you that, while you do need to consider needs in the draft, sometimes 'best player available' trumps 'biggest need' and teams should act accordingly.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle

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Bob Morris
BOB MORRIS

Bob Morris has served as Denver Broncos On SI's resident cap analyst covering the Denver Broncos and NFL since 2017. His works have been featured on Scout.com, 247Sports.com, CBSSports.com, and BleacherReport.com.

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