7 factors more important than talent Broncos must consider on the trade market

The Denver Broncos have several holes on their roster, with a couple of positions in particular that need replacement players. The Broncos haven't done the best job of drafting in recent seasons (particularly in 2015 and 2017), so why wouldn't the trade market make sense?

It's easy to think that the Broncos — or any team — can just fix everything by trading for players. That's especially if there's a player who is considered a top talent at his position and that it's not always easy to draft top players.

However, thinking that trades are simply a matter of whether or not a player is talented is one-dimensional thinking. Teams don't just look at talent when it comes to acquiring players — the best front offices look at the big picture to determine when a trade makes sense and how much it's worth it to pursue a player.

To that end, Broncos fans need to consider all factors that come into play when pursuing a player through trades and not just think of it as "proven players are better than draft picks in which you don't know what you'll get."

I want to examine a few things that need to be considered when trading for players, then examine some of the players that Broncos fans have mentioned as possible trade targets, including a couple who were traded. The purpose behind including those players is to explain why the Broncos couldn't stay in the bidding for those players.

Let's start with the factors that you have to consider (other than talent level) whenever you think about trading for a player in the NFL.

1. How much does the position move the needle?

It goes without saying that not all positions have the same impact on a team. So it's not enough to talk about a player's talent level, but how likely this player is going to take a team from either .500 purgatory to playoff contender or from playoff contender to Super Bowl contender.

The top tier is the quarterback, to the point that good-but-not-great passers demand a lot in trade. The next tier is the pass rusher, in which elite players demand a lot in trade and good players don't demand as much, but don't come cheap, either.

After that comes the third tier consisting of offensive tackle, wide receiver and cornerback. Those players tend to fetch high picks, but you have to be careful how high and how many.

After that comes the tier of interior offensive lineman, off-ball linebacker and safety, then tight end, then running back, then interior defenders who can stop the run, then depth and special teams. In most cases, you don't want to go "all in" on these players, though some situations may justify a higher pick.

2. How great of a need is there at the position in question?

For the highest tiers, the greater a need at the position means that you need to be prepared to give up more. But that means you really need to assess what are your biggest needs.

Needs can be categorized as replacement needed, upgrade needed, depth needed and not needed. The replacement-needed positions the Broncos have are offensive tackle (left tackle, especially) and off-ball linebacker.

Quarterback is an upgrade-needed position, with a case to be made for right guard, and cornerback and safety a case of upgrades likely needed, depending on the future of players with expiring contracts.

The Broncos could use depth at tight end and interior offensive line, but those aren't positions to give up premium picks. Otherwise, the Broncos don't have a need, so pass rusher, wide receiver and running back are positions at which the team isn't in the trade market.

3. How many years can you expect to have the player on your team?

It should go without saying that a player with an expiring contract isn't worth as much as a player with multiple years left on his deal. For some with expiring contracts, it may be worth asking if he's worth an extension.

But there's also the question about how many more seasons you expect the player to play in the future. If a player has three seasons left on his deal, but has an injury history that may mean he retires soon, you don't want to give up too much for him.

Players who were draft picks in the last season or two are often worth more because they come on cheap deals for multiple years, whereas some veterans are worth less than those draft picks because they are more expensive and may not have that many seasons left in the tank. You also have to keep in mind that a cheaper deal is easier to work under the cap, whereas more expensive deals require a lot of manuevering to make it work out.

4. Are you a legitimate playoff contender this season?

Every team wants to make the playoffs but not every team has a legitimate chance. You know for sure about three games into the season if you are, but you have to keep this in mind before acquiring players through trade.

Recent draft picks on cheap contracts are often acquired regardless of whether or not a team is a playoff contender because, again, it's easy to build around these players. But when it comes to more expensive talent, you have to ask yourself whether you are a playoff contender and, if so, will this player push you over the top to becoming a Super Bowl contender?

5. How does the other team's front office approach negotiations?

Some front offices are more reasonable when it comes to discussing trades. They want to get a fair deal, but they aren't stubborn about negotiating. Others, though, name their price and don't want to move from it.

In some cases, front offices will leak word about what they are seeking, but give some hope that they will take less, in hopes of getting other teams to bite. That way, they can drive up the asking price, which can lead some to question about whether or not the team will be fair as negotiations progress.

6. How many other teams are showing strong interest in the player?

The more teams that want a player, the higher prices get. Sometimes it's worth continuing to pursue a player, but you have to consider the other factors to answer that question.

If you are talking about an elite quarterback and you need one, it's worth it to keep going through negotiations. However, once you get past quarterback and pass rusher, it's harder to justify getting into a bidding war, because you can give up more than the player is worth.

7. Does the player in question want a trade and, if so, why?

Every team needs to ask what it is the player wants before rushing to acquire the player. Some players want a trade because they want a big contract their current team won't deliver.

Others may want to go to a playoff contender. Still, others may just be unhappy with the current coaches, front office or even ownership.

You have to consider what the players want before you try to work out a deal. A team that isn't a playoff contender shouldn't pursue a player who wants to go to one. A team that has lots of cap and roster questions shouldn't move too quickly with acquiring a player who wants a new deal.

And if a player isn't happy with his current team, a team considering him should ask if the coach, front office or owner is really the problem or if the player is more trouble than he's worth.

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Applying these standards to real/current situations

With all these things in mind, let's consider some of the players that have come up in as possible trade targets for the Broncos and either why they don't make sense or they weren't going to happen given where things turned out.

Laremy Tunsil: When word got out that the Miami Dolphins were willing to part ways with Tunsil, it was worth the Broncos inquring about him. He had two years left on his rookie deal, the second a fifth-year option that, while not cheap, was still a good deal for a starting offensive tackle.

But while I was all for the Broncos sending a first-round pick for Tunsil, considering it was a position of high need, the Houston Texans came along and drove the price up. Once that happened, the Broncos couldn't afford to keep going with negotiations. One first-round pick for Tunsil is fine, but two first rounders is too much.

The final trade betwene Miami and Houston involved more than that, but still, the price got too high. I'm sure most Broncos fans would agree that, as much as Garett Bolles has struggled, they wouldn't want the Broncos to go overboard with compensation for his replacement.

Minkah Fitzpatrick: This is another player that made sense for the Broncos to inquire about. Fitzpatrick is a young player entering his second season, meaning you'd have him on a cheap rookie deal for three seasons, then can consider his fifth-year option. Fitzpatrick made sense for a lot of teams, whether or not they are a playoff contender.

But for the Broncos, because Fitzpatrick is more about an upgrade when players with expiring contracts might leave, you had to be careful what pick you sent. A second-round pick made sense, but a first-rounder was a bit steep.

The Pittsburgh Steelers were willing to give that first-rounder up, though they swapped other picks with Miami. But given that Miami apparently leaked word that they would take a second-rounder in order to drive the price up, any interest the Broncos showed likely got dampened.

Jamal Adams: The New York Jets safety reportedly wants out and he would be a young talent with a couple of cheap years left on his deal.

I don't think the Broncos should rule him out, but they aren't likely to get him because Adam Gase still holds a grudge against John Elway, meaning he and the front office are likely to ask for more than Adams is worth if the Broncos want him.

Since safety doesn't move the needle, and Adams isn't like Fitzpatrick in that he can play cornerback as well, I wouldn't give up more than a third-round pick for Adams. Given that the Jets could likely drive the price up on him, what with Gase having more say in the front office, I'm not confident the Broncos will land him.

Trent Williams: Yes, I know — Garett Bolles has been bad. However, I've been over this several times before and I will say it again: The Broncos shouldn't trade for Williams unless they are a playoff contender.

It was one thing for the Broncos to pursue Joe Thomas in 2015, because they were a playoff contender and Thomas would have helped push them into Super Bowl contender status. (They did win the Super Bowl, of course, but I'm talking about when the Broncos negotiated a trade for him.)

It's easy to think of Williams as like Thomas, but there's a problem: He isn't. Thomas never missed a start until the final season of his NFL career, so you consider a strong offer for him. Williams, on the other hand, has missed multiple starts in his career.

Williams is more comparable to Duane Brown, who missed a few starts with injuries, but wanted out of Houston because he wanted a new contract and he was reportedly unhappy with then-owner Bob McNair. The Seattle Seahawks dealt for Brown, originally sending a fifth-round and a second-round pick, plus cornerback Jeremy Lane. When Lane failed his physical, the Seahawks raised the fifth-rounder to a third, while Houston sent back a fifth.

Thus, the parameters for Williams trade are set: You give up a third-round pick in 2020 and a second-round pick in 2021, but Washington must send a fifth-round pick back — and, I'll repeat, better to do it if you are a playoff contender.

Even so, there's the issue with Washington Redskins general manager Bruce Allen, who is stingy in negotiations. It's difficult to get him down from his asking prices, and if he really wants a first-rounder, that's too much for Williams. He's 31 years old, wants an extension and there's no way to be certain how many more seasons he'll be able to play.

I understand the desire to get a new left tackle, but the way things are, acquiring Williams is out of the question.

Jalen Ramsey: It's easy to become smitten with Ramsey and think that his acquisition will solve the Broncos problems. However, fans wanting Ramsey aren't looking at the big picture.

First, Ramsey will likely want an extension with whoever acquires him. On one hand, Chris Harris has an expiring contract. On the other hand, there's still a chance he could return (though not cheap) if he thinks the Broncos will be a playoff contender next year. But if you trade for Ramsey, you send the message to Harris that he won't be back. That's not something you want to do at this point.

Second, the Jaguars are reportedly asking for two first-round picks. That's way too high of a price to pay. Ramsey isn't going to move the needle enough to get the Broncos into the playoffs. If he could, the Jaguars would be in playoff contention, but they're not.

Third, and most importantly, Ramsey indicated in a press conference this week that he's frustrated about losing. That signals that, if he's traded, he'll want to go to a playoff contender. The Broncos aren't that, so he's not likely to want to come to Denver. That's the biggest reason why every Broncos fan needs to scratch Ramsey from the list.

Eli Manning: With the other players I mentioned, I can at least understand reasons why people would want them, even if I don't agree with them or they don't consider the big picture. With Eli Manning, though, it's an entirely different situation.

I suspect at least one person brought up Manning as a joke, but some fans appear to be taking this seriously. If you want to be serious, though, you need to accept that Manning has nothing left in the tank. He's been in decline for the past couple of seasons and isn't a quarterback you can build around anymore.

Manning has had a better overall career than Joe Flacco, but this season, Flacco is the better quarterback. Flacco is more preferable as the bridge to the next quarterback in line (who the Broncos still plan on being Drew Lock), whereas if the Broncos acquired Manning, it would be a downgrade and it wouldn't be long before you would become more desperate to get Lock off IR and get Manning out of there.

There's also the matter of the Broncos having restructured Flacco's contract and them taking on Manning's salary, even if it's an expiring contract. Manning's entire base salary is fully guaranteed, so any salary you take, you have to pay it.

I won't blame any fan who is inquiring about other players I've mentioned as trade targets, but when it comes to Manning, it needs to stop. It's just dumb thinking and needs to be called as such.

What about the risk with the draft?

Plenty of fans bring up the fact that the Broncos have missed on recent draft picks, so it's better to get proven players now than to waste draft picks on players who don't work out. However, if that's the case, why bother drafting anybody and just trade to your heart's content?

It's not good practice to depend on trades to get players — the draft is the best place to get them. That means if you aren't drafting well, you need to understand what your problem is and do a better job with evaluations.

Figuring out what the Broncos have done wrong in the draft isn't complicated. You can see a recent pattern of players taken in the first three rounds, who had raw talent but upside to become a quality player if that talent is developed. Ty Sambrailo, Jeff Heuerman, Paxton Lynch, Adam Gotsis, Garett Bolles and Brendan Langley all fit this category and some might put DeMarcus Walker there.

Out of all those players, only Gotsis has worked out, likely because Bill Kollar did such a great job developing him. In every other case, the player didn't work out as expected. Of those still with the team, Heuerman could be cut after the season and Bolles is almost certain to be replaced.

The reasons why the players didn't work out vary, but the lesson is that you don't draft players with raw talent but upside too early in the draft unless you have a plan of action plus quality coaching to develop those players.

The better approach for the Broncos was to focus less on raw talent and more on players with refined talent and technique who just need a few adjustments to become NFL players. Those players also need to have a strong work ethic, so they would focus on improving rather than taking things for granted.

The Broncos took that approach in 2018 and their draft class looked better, because you see players who are either playing well or learning from their mistakes. The 2019 draft class followed a similar pattern and holds promise.

It's fine to take a chance on players now and then, but you either do it in later rounds where the risk is lower and the rewards are greater, or you do it when you have the coaching in place to get that raw talent refined. Adam Gotsis had that consistent coaching while Garett Bolles has gone through three different offensive line coaches in three seasons, all coaches in their first year with the team. Coaching isn't the sole reason Bolles hasn't worked out, but it's part of the equation.

In some cases, front offices never correct their draft evaluation process, which explains why some of them have been removed from their positions. John Elway did have problems with his approach but likely survived because the Broncos are more concerned with settling their ownership situation, then letting that owner determine who will lead the front office.

Because of circumstances, Elway had the chance to step back and ask himself how he could do better. He has taken steps in the right direction, given his 2018 and 2019 classes, but it's going to take at least one more good draft class — and certainly will take Drew Lock developing into the quarterback the Broncos can build around — to get the Broncos back to playoff contention. Otherwise, when the ownership situation is settled, Elway might not get another chance.

The Takeaway

The idea of trading picks away because you can't draft well isn't good practice. Trading for players should have nothing to do with your drafting ability and everything to do with the factors I've covered.

If you're having trouble drafting players, then the correct approach is to determine how you can do better with drafting, rather than giving up on the draft because you're afraid of a bust.

Follow Bob on Twitter @BobMorrisSports and @MileHighHuddle.

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