Bo Nix on the Verge of Breakout? New Stat Hints it’s Coming

Bo Nix has left several explosive plays on the table, but he's also hit on a few.

Oct 12, 2025; Tottenham, United Kingdom; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws a pass against the New York Jets during an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. | Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

After a historic rookie season, Bo Nix's second-year body of work has yet to live up to the expectations within the Denver Broncos fan base. Broncos Country expected an explosive Year 2 from Nix, and the early returns have been slightly confounding to some fans.

Nix ranks 12th in the NFL in passing yards, with 1,277. He ranks 24th in completion percentage (64.6%) and rating (88.2), and 15th in touchdowns, with nine. However, one metric could illustrate just what trajectory Nix is on.

According to The 33rd Team, Tampa Bay's Baker Mayfield leads all NFL quarterbacks with eight touchdowns on throws traveling 20-plus air yards this season. Nix ranks second with four.

Baker Mayfield is up to 8 TD passes on throws of 20+ air yards this season, twice as many as any other QB

Baker: 8
Bo Nix: 4
Lamar Jackson/Russell Wilson/Justin Herbert/C.J. Stroud/Drake Maye/Caleb Williams: 3 https://t.co/mzJ9TnwX5M pic.twitter.com/kVv5prVQaz

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) October 13, 2025

What happens next on the Broncos beat? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

The Scary Thing

Oct 5, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. | Eric Hartline-Imagn Images

Nix has missed several deep throws this season that would have likely resulted in explosive touchdowns. In the Broncos' Week 3 loss to the Los Angeles Chargers alone, he missed three, which, had he been accurate, would have been touchdowns.

Those alone would have put Nix at seven such explosive passing touchdowns, and there were a few more misses in the Broncos' five other games. Thus far, Mayfield is hitting on his opportunities to strike deep for explosive touchdowns, while Nix has been a bit more hit and miss.

That margin of error is what separates the good from the great. Mayfield has been great, playing at an MVP level thus far, and leading the Buccaneers out to a 5-1 start. Nix has been good, with the Broncos sitting at 4-2. A few minor tweaks to his game, though, and Nix would be great.

Thus, it's important to remember that Nix is only in his second year. Mayfield is in Year 8.

This is only one aspect of why Sean Payton remains utterly confident that Nix will become an NFL superstar and mentioned with the likes of Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff, and others.

Although he's thrown more picks this season than you'd like to see, Nix still has a healthy touchdown-to-interception ratio at 9-to-4. You always want to see a quarterback with a 2-to-1 ratio, at least, in this department. He's also amassed 124 rushing yards and an additional score on the ground.

Offense Yet to Take Fully Take Flight

Exactly why the Broncos' offense hasn't fully taken flight this season is difficult to put a finger on. However, Payton's play-calling in the Broncos' narrow 13-11 victory over the New York Jets in London was arguably the worst we've seen it in a season that has been uncharacteristically inconsistent for the head coach.

Nix has certainly been part of the problem, while the Broncos' receiving corps has struggled with too many dropped passes. Initially, I chalked it up to early-season jitters and the pressure of significantly elevated expectations, which Payton contributed to by hyping the Broncos as one of the few "Super Bowl-caliber" teams he's been privileged to coach in the NFL during training camp.

In the Broncos' massive Week 5 upset of the World Champion Philadelphia Eagles, fans hoped that Nix's second-half tour de force would open up the floodgates to bigger and better things offensively. Alas, the Broncos' offense was woefully inconsistent in London, though, for perhaps the first time this season, the quarterback wasn't among the primary culprits.

Nix is a Franchise QB

Again, if nothing else, Nix's up-and-down play is emblematic of his relative inexperience. Broncos Country waited nearly a decade after Super Bowl 50 for a new franchise quarterback to emerge.

Nix's 2024 campaign screamed that Denver had finally found its guy. But there are levels to being a franchise quarterback in the NFL.

There are the tier-one elite quarterbacks, but so far, Nix has established himself in that next group of signal-callers: young, talented players on the rise who are still navigating their NFL trial-and-error learning curve while flashing tantalizing franchise traits.

If nothing else, The 33rd Team's statistic on explosive passing touchdowns shows that Nix is living up to his franchise billing, despite his relative inconsistencies. He's only scratching the surface of his 2025 potential, and as the season marches on, rest assured that he'll continue to rise and eventually break through to realizing it fully.

Nix is close to a bona fide break-out.