NFL MVP Odds: Drake Maye Gaining on Matthew Stafford, Trevor Lawrence Enters Top 4

Breaking down the latest NFL MVP odds after Sunday's action in Week 16 of the 2025 NFL season.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye is second in the odds to win MVP. / James Lang-Imagn Images

Drake Maye did it again.

The second-year quarterback turned in a dazzling performance in primetime, leading the New England Patriots to a comeback win over the Baltimore Ravens to clinch a playoff spot. 

At 12-3, the Patriots are in the driver’s seat to win the AFC East and are still in the mix for the No. 1 seed, as they are just a tiebreaker behind the Denver Broncos (also 12-3). 

Maye is now +180 to win the NFL’s MVP award – up from +425 last week – and he’s right behind Matthew Stafford (-220) who is still the favorite even though the Los Angeles Rams are no longer the No. 1 seed in the NFC. 

Can Maye eventually overtake Stafford in this market? There is an argument to be made, especially if the Patriots end up earning the top seed in the AFC. 

Meanwhile, there is a new member in the top four of the odds after a statement win on Sunday, while Buffalo Bills star Josh Allen looks a little less likely to repeat as a back-to-back league MVP.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and the case for a few of the top candidates following Sunday’s action in Week 16. 

Latest NFL MVP Odds for 2025 Season

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Matthew Stafford: -220
• Drake Maye: +180
• Josh Allen: +2500
• Trevor Lawrence: +3500
• Justin Herbert: +8000
• Caleb Williams: +10000
• Sam Darnold: +10000
• Bo Nix: +15000
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba: +15000

Drake Maye Gaining in NFL MVP Race

Despite two first-half turnovers, Drake Maye was lights out for the Patriots on Sunday when it mattered the most, throwing for 380 yards and two scores while completing 70.5 percent of his passes.

He still doesn’t have anywhere near the touchdown numbers that Stafford does, but Maye has a chance to lead the NFL in completion percentage while playing for the best team in the AFC.

His case does take a little bit of a hit if Denver gets the No. 1 seed, but there’s a chance Maye is the highest seed and the only division winner between him, Allen and Stafford when the season comes to a close.

That gives the second-year signal-caller a real chance to win this award, and I think he’s a value at +180 with cupcake matchups against the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins left on the Patriots’ schedule. 

Matthew Stafford Remains Favorite, But Will He Win?

Even though the Los Angeles Rams lost on Thursday night against the Seattle Seahawks, Stafford was still terrific, and that’s likely why he’s favored to win the MVP.

Davante Adams did not play for the Rams, but Stafford still threw for 457 yards and three scores, pushing his season numbers to 4,179 yards, 40 touchdown passes and just five picks. Simply put, he’s the MVP if we’re only looking at numbers.

However, there’s a chance the Rams are the No. 5 seed or worse, as they are no longer in control of their own destiny to win the NFC West. That would be a blow to Stafford’s case, but his numbers may be enough to hold off Maye for this honor. 

Josh Allen Loses Ground in NFL MVP Odds

The Bills struggled a bit with the Cleveland Browns in Week 16, and Josh Allen has fallen from +550 to +2500 to win the MVP.

A big reason for that drop is likely due to the Patriots' win, as the Bills’ path to winning the AFC East just became increasingly difficult. Allen did not throw a touchdown pass and only mustered 130 yards against a stout Cleveland defense.

That likely killed his MVP case, barring a Patriots collapse in Weeks 17 and 18. 

Trevor Lawrence Rising in NFL MVP Odds

The performance of the week goes to Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, as he diced the Denver Broncos defense for 34 points, giving Jacksonville an outside shot at the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

Lawrence threw for 279 yards and three scores on Sunday, moving his MVP odds from outside of +10000 all the way up to +3500. As of Sunday morning, Lawrence was +15000 to win the league’s MVP.

Now, Lawrence does not have the numbers to compete with Stafford and Maye, but his lone path could be leading the Jaguars to the No. 1 seed. He’d need some help with Denver and/or New England losses, but it’s likely why he’s moved up so far in this market.

The Jaguars have a soft schedule with the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans to end the regular season, which could help Lawrence pad his stats and clinch the AFC South. 

Caleb Williams Deserves Love for NFL MVP

On Sunday, I wrote about Williams surging up the odds board to win the MVP (he has since fallen back), and I think the Bears quarterback deserves some love for this award, even though he will not win: 

The Bears quarterback has led his team to an 11-4 record, a massive turnaround from the 2024 season. Williams has completed just 57.8 percent of his passes, which likely crushes his MVP case, but he's thrown for 3,400 yards, 23 scores and just six picks. He also has 71 carries for 369 yards and three scores on the ground.

Williams is tied for the league lead in fourth quarter comebacks (five) and he has orchestrated five game-winning drives in his second season.

While the MVP award may be out of reach, there's no doubt that Williams is staking his claim as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL, and potentially the best from the lauded 2024 NFL Draft Class.

The Bears close out the regular season with games against San Francisco and Detroit, two teams in the mix for a playoff spot. With two wins, Williams would have a compelling case in the MVP conversation, especially if the Bears end up with the top seed in the conference.

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Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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