Mile High Roundtable Renders Predictions & Picks for Broncos-Bills

All that work and toil. The blood, sweat, and tears — the sacrifice — of the Denver Broncos' regular-season campaign all comes down to one single-elimination playoff game vs. the Buffalo Bills.

Instead of Upstate New York, the cleats hit the grass this time at Empower Field at Mile High. The football gods have blessed the Broncos with the opportunity to exact some revenge on the Bills for last year's 31-7 Wildcard drubbing.

On one side, Josh Allen is the NFL's reigning MVP and is battle-tested in the playoffs, though he's never gotten over the hump, and he's dealing with a trio of injuries. On the other, Bo Nix makes his second playoff appearance as the quarterback of the No. 1 seed and is out to prove that he and the Broncos are indeed the "overdogs."

The betting lines have shifted this week, with the Bills initially opening as 1.5-point favorites, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. That line has shifted to the Broncos as the 1.5-point favorites, signaling how the NFL betting world sees this matchup, essentially, as a toss-up.

How will the most important Broncos game of the past 10 years shake out?

Let's go around the table to see how the Denver Broncos On SI/Mile High Huddle staff envision this one unfolding. Be sure to follow our editorial staff and excellent writers on X/Twitter, which are linked next to each author's name.

Keith Cummings (@KeithC_NFL) 14-3: Talk flowing out of Broncos HQ is about the golden opportunity presenting itself. Facing the cream of the crop in Allen will require the kind of measured aggression Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph has made his calling card. This one figures to be close, but the banged-up Bills run out of gas late and Nix pounces.

Pick: Broncos 28, Bills 21

Thomas Hall (@ThomasHallNFL) 14-3: The Broncos are the more talented and healthier team with home field advantage. As long as they don’t have mental errors, the Broncos should win their first playoff game in a decade. Denver's defense will come up big with multiple sacks and at least one takeaway.

Pick: Broncos 27, Bills 20

Chad Jensen (@ChadNJensen) 14-3: 11-2. That's the Broncos' record this season in one-score games. News flash: this revenge tilt will go down to the wire, but the Broncos have been in the crucible all year long, being shaped by the refiner's fire in the clutch. Sean Payton doubled down on his team's end-of-game edge, focusing on situational football and the two-minute drill on all sides of the ball in this week's practice. The Broncos must stop Buffalo's run game and hit, hit, hit Allen, while the Weeks 11-15 version of Nix must reappear. Denver wins on a Wil Lutz walk-off field goal and advances to the AFC Championship Game.

Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 23

Luke Patterson (@LukePattersonLP) 14-3: The Bills are limping into the Mile High City with banged-up quarterback, an ineffective run game, and a decimated receiver room. Allen will be forced to play hero-ball all by his lonesome while Denver’s defense remains healthy, focused, and hungry in both the trenches and the secondary. Expect Payton and Nix to go all-in on a balanced attack that’ll yield enough impact plays to restore the postseason Mile High Magic fittingly, on the 10-year anniversary of Super Bowl 50.

Pick: Broncos 23, Bills 20

Dylan Von Arx (@DylanVonArxMHH) 13-4: Saturday will be the Broncos' biggest test this season as they face the best remaining AFC quarterback in Allen and the Bills. Allen is banged up and he's down two receivers to season-ending injuries which the Broncos' defense should look to exploit by loading the box. Offensively, the ground game will be a huge factor as the Bills' run defense is very poor and Denver's commitment to pounding the rock will ultimately be the difference in this game.

Pick: Broncos 20, Bills 17

Erick Trickel (@ErickTrickel) 13-4: The Broncos have a lot going for then entering this playoff game with a chance for revenge. Buffalo is beat up on both sides of the ball, but it finally got a road playoff win in the Wildcard Round over a Jacksonville team that beat Denver. The Bills' defense, which was bad this season, did some great things against the Jaguars, so Nix and the offense will have their work cut out for then. In the end, the Broncos find a way to get it done.

Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 16

Carl Dumler (@CarlDumlerMHH) 13-4: The Broncos have a few big things working in their favor and one big item working against them. They're catching the Bills at a rough moment, being banged up all over the roster, having to travel on a short week, coming off beating a very physical team on both sides of the ball, and playing at altitude. On the flip side, the Bills have the best player in football at the most important position. The Broncos, though, let Nix loose in this one on the ground and the they control field position and the clock, helping limit Allen’s impact. Defensively, Talanoa Hufanga was brough in for this kind of matchup and makes a game-changing play. The Broncos walk out with a huge win.

Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 20

Zack Kelberman (@KelbermanNFL) 12-5: Welcome back to the 'Boverdogs.' I expect the Broncos to harness everything tangible and not — the disrespect, the homefield advantage, and admittedly the many injuries to a vulnerable Buffalo squad — to eek past the Bills in predictably heart-pounding fashion, qualifying for their first AFC Championship game since 2015 and continuing to look like a team of Super Bowl destiny. No coach converts an us-against-the-world mentality into positive on-field results quite like Payton. I suspect we'll be treated to that magic again. Just make sure you have your blood pressure medication nearby.

Pick: Broncos 23, Bills 20

Nick Kendell (@NickKendellMHH) 12-5: The Broncos host the Bills with a chance to rectify last season's postseason loss. The Bills are banged up as can be and the Broncos have an extra week to prepare and rest. How will the Broncos hold up against an offensive line and run game that, quite frankly, abused them last season? And is Denver's ground attack good enough to take advantage of a poor Buffalo run defense? Expect a low-possession game.

Pick: Broncos 17, Bills 16

Bob Morris (@BobMorrisSports) 12-5: The Bills are a talented team but they have key flaws, namely their run defense and the lack of receivers. However, Allen is always going to give the Bills a chance to win a game. The question is what the Broncos do to limit his impact and to take advantage of the Bills' flaws. And while it's easy to look on past results, be it the 2023 regular-season matchup or the 2024 playoff loss, that's the past. This year, the Broncos have done a better job of finding ways to win when they execute, particularly when the defense is on point. If the Broncos can get the run game going and do enough on defense to limit the Bills' offense, they should be able to pull out a close win, but a victory nonetheless.

Pick: Broncos 20, Bills 17

Ron White (@RonWhiteNFL) 12-5: Coming off a 13-day period of rest, the Broncos must face their first big playoff challenge against the Bills. This is a game where the Broncos will find numerous opportunities for Nix, Jaleel McLaughlin, and RJ Harvey to run the football against a below-average run defense and hit underneath passes. The plan on defense is simple: Contain James Cook and pressure Allen. Cook will be held to under 100 yards rushing and the Broncos will sack Allen three times. In the end, the Broncos win a close game.

Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 21

James Campbell (@JamesC_MHH) 12-5: The Broncos had an outstanding regular season, one that should provide hope for the future. But playoff football is a different beast and the Broncos' record is now 0-0. The Bills are playoff seasoned and have Allen, but the Broncos will be keen to avenge last season. In this one, in Denver, Lutz kicks a last-second game-winner in what figures to be a close game coming down to the wire.

Pick: Broncos 24, Bills 22

Lance Sanderson (@LanceS_MHH) 11-6: If the Broncos want to win this one, they're going to have to commit to the run game, particularly outside the tackles. The Bills have one of the worst run defenses in the league, and giving Allen any extra opportunities to possess the football is a horrific idea. The Broncos have had success sustaining long drives over 10 plays over the last few weeks, and they need a couple of those to grind the clock and limit possessions. This one is going to come down to the wire, and likely the last team with the ball will win the game.

Pick: Broncos 20, Bills 19

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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