Contender or Pretender? Analytics Hint at Broncos' Trajectory

With one quarter of the season in the books, what do the analytics say about the state of the Denver Broncos and where they're headed?

Sep 29, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos linebacker Nik Bonitto (15) celebrates with Denver Broncos linebacker Jonah Elliss (52) after sacking Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Jake Browning (6) (not pictured) during the third quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. | Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images

Four games into the 2025 season, the Denver Broncos sit at 2-2 but could have been 4-0 if not for second-half mistakes. Still, the Broncos have shown they're capable of putting together offensive drives and are effective at rushing the passer on defense.

Are the Broncos truly a playoff contender, though? Some might look at the two wins over the Tennessee Titans and Cincinnati Bengals, the former a bad team and the latter a team missing one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, and think they aren't. But it's worth noting that the two losses to good teams were decided on last-second field goals.

To get a true picture of how good a team really is, advanced metrics can help. I've always looked at Aaron Schatz's DVOA, which considers how efficient teams are in all three aspects of football: offense, defense, and special teams.

Broncos' DVOA Rankings

How good are the Broncos in DVOA through four games? As it turns out, they're pretty good.

The Broncos currently rank ninth in overall DVOA at 16.6 percent, 10th on offense at 7.9 percent, 10th on defense at -9.1 percent (DVOA is better for defense when it's negative), and 22nd on special teams at -0.3 percent.

DVOA gradually takes into account strength of opposition for the first weeks of the season. For Week 4, it currently accounts for opponent strength at 40%. That's because it's taking into account the fact that we're still four games into the season and there's a lot of football left to play.

The Broncos' offense is actually good at moving the football, though it could be more consistent and needs to clean up penalties. Meanwhile, the defense might not be a top-five unit, but it is effective. As for special teams, a long kickoff return, a missed field goal, and a penalty that gave the Indianapolis Colts another field goal attempt are among the factors dragging the unit down.

What happens next on the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

The Opponents

Sep 21, 2025; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) grabs a pass during the second half against the Denver Broncos at SoFi Stadium. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

How are the Broncos' opponents ranked? The Colts are currently ranked fourth (third offense, 18th defense, 11th special teams), the Los Angeles Chargers are currently ranked 10th (14th offense, seventh defense, 23rd special teams), the Bengals are ranked 30th (30th offense, 27th defense, 18th special teams) and the Titans are ranked 32nd (32nd offense, 29th defense, 12th special teams).

One can look at the Week 3 and Week 4 games to know that the Colts' offense and Chargers' defense were both factors in the outcomes (though certainly not the only ones). Also, the Colts and Chargers look like playoff contenders, despite their Week 4 losses.

It's good to know that the Broncos have taken care of business against two teams that were clearly not as good. However, to be a playoff threat, the Broncos need to show they can beat a playoff contender and that hasn't happened yet.

Philadelphia Eagles

The Eagles do represent a chance for the Broncos to get a win over a playoff contender. DVOA ranks the Eagles 13th in overall DVOA (17th offense, 14th defense, 21st special teams), and you can read Schatz's rankings (linked above) to understand why that's the case.

Still, the Eagles are 4-0 for a reason and the Broncos cannot afford the mistakes they have made in the first four games if they want a chance to win that one.

But the good news is, based on what DVOA shows, if the Broncos can minimize penalties, clean up special teams miscues, and finish more drives with touchdowns, they could become one of the better teams in the NFL and do more than just win the final Wildcard spot.