Analytics Reveal the Value of Broncos' Three Draft-Day Trades

The Denver Broncos made three trades in the 2023 NFL draft, even though they had limited draft capital to make those moves. On Day 2, the Broncos jumped up five spots to get the last pick in the second round and then moved back into the middle of the third round to secure another player they obviously liked.

On the final day, Denver traded away one of its two sixth-round picks for a player and a seventh. Regardless of the players selected, trading up requires exchanging value, and that value can be measured.

Did the Broncos trade too much or get good value from their trade partner? Below is the breakdown based on the probability by round and position derived from drafts since 2009.

The first trade of the night was to move up from No. 68 to No. 63 to get Oklahoma wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. In order to move up those five spots, the Broncos traded both No. 68 (third round) and 138 (fourth round) to receive 63 (second round) and 183 (sixth round) from the Detroit Lions.

The trade was not a bad value for either team. The Broncos lost 0.020 (-27.6%) in probability of drafting an impact player and gained 0.021 (4.5%) in drafting a primary starter. Not a significant loss in value when looking at both types of players to be a “hit” in their NFL career.

The Broncos targeted a position (wide receiver) that has one of the best probabilities of all positions drafted in the second round of being a “hit” in the NFL. For a trade-up of only five spots, it was a decent value for the Broncos.

The next trade of the night was made so the Broncos could move back into the third round to take Iowa cornerback Riley Moss. Denver packaged up No. 108 (fourth round) and a 2024 third-rounder to get the Seattle Seahawks’ No. 83 in the third. The Broncos basically gave up a fourth-round selection to swap third-rounders.

The value was a bit lopsided for the Seahawks. The Broncos lost 0.028 (-41.6%) of probability of selecting an impact player and 0.128 (-40.5%) of selecting a primary starter. The Broncos also took a position that is notorious for having a high bust potential in Round 3. Cornerback is one of the worst positions in probability for “hitting” in the NFL if drafted in the third round.

With the final trade of the draft, the Broncos moved down instead of up, trading the No. 195 selection to the New Orleans Saints for tight end Adam Trautman and No. 257 (seventh round). Swapping the picks led to a loss of value in probability of selecting an impact player of 0.010 (-151.2%) and a starting player of 0.043 (-94.8%).

However, the team gained a player capable of becoming a primary starter at tight end. Trautman has been the starter in one of his three seasons with the Saints and could find his way to becoming the starter with the Broncos.

Furthermore, had the Broncos kept pick No. 195 and selected a tight end, the probability of finding a primary starter at that position in the sixth round is 0.20 — not high odds. The Broncos came away with a solid option at tight end, and even though they lost value in the draft pick swap, the odds of finding a “hit” in the sixth round are very low, leading to this trade being solidly in favor of the Broncos.

What it Means

The Broncos went after the players they wanted and gave up some value in order to make those trades. Hopefully, Denver's eye for talent outweighs the probabilities that have been derived from the last 12 drafts.

The Broncos must find some diamonds in this draft in order to compete in the AFC West again. We can only hope that the Sean Payton/George Paton combination proves to be a winner in the draft.

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