Broncos Given Curious Ranking by Advanced Analytics Innovator

There’s reason to be cautiously optimistic about the Denver Broncos 2023 season, given that there’s a new head coach, new coaching staff members, and some notable changes to personnel.

Of course, the ultimate measuring stick about the season will be the Broncos' performance on the field, particularly how efficient the team is in terms of production. This is where analytics like DVOA (Defense-Adjust Value Over Average) — a long-time oft-cited advanced metric of Football Outsiders — can come into play in determining how good teams really are.

Aaron Schatz, who now writes for the FTN Network, is the man behind DVOA, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on each play to a league average based on situation and opponent. He did make some changes to his model this year, which you can read about here.

Schatz has released his DVOA projections for 2023, which have the Broncos projected to rank 22nd overall, 21st on offense, 17th on defense, and 32nd on special teams.

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I’ll refer you to Schatz’s projections for an explainer about what goes into his forecast. Needless to say, while his projections try to take into account changes to every team, they may not be able to account for the full effect of them. As an example, consider what Schatz had to say back in 2022 about teams he projected to not be that good, who went on to make the playoffs.

“Remember that some of the teams at the bottom of our projections are going to surprise and make the playoffs. Last year, the New York Giants had the worst projected DVOA in the league and they made the playoffs anyway. (There's a reason Brian Daboll won Coach of the Year!) The Jacksonville Jaguars also had a very low projection last year, although some of that was because our system couldn't understand the colossal improvement from getting rid of Urban Meyer.”

Therefore, the Broncos’ projection doesn’t mean the team won’t make the playoffs in 2023. For example, DVOA projections may underestimate the improvement from replacing Nathaniel Hackett with Sean Payton as head coach.

When it comes to the offense, the projections likely are bearish when it comes to Russell Wilson, who is coming off the worst season of his career. Also, DVOA likes wide receiver Tim Patrick, who will miss his second straight season because of a training camp injury.

As for defense, a likely reason DVOA isn’t big on the Broncos because they don’t have a true standout in the pass rush. Randy Gregory might be the best overall pass rusher, but he would fall into the 'good but not great' category, even when he’s healthy.

The Broncos haven’t had a truly elite pass rusher since Von Miller was traded, and last season, one could argue that Bradley Chubb was better than Gregory in terms of overall talent.

Special teams is easier to figure out. First of all, the Broncos have been bad at special teams the past few seasons.

Second, Denver cut kicker Brandon McManus during the offseason, held a competition between Brett Maher and Elliott Fry, appeared to settle on Maher, then traded for Will Lutz, who is coming off his worst season as a pro.

Therefore, one should expect the Broncos to enter 2023 with a lot to prove. From Wilson needing to demonstrate that he’s not washed to the special teams needing to avoid another lackluster showing, there are plenty of areas in which the Broncos have room for improvement.

As always, any prediction is based on what is known at the time and does involve some guesswork. But the bottom line is that, right now, the Broncos aren’t exactly favorites of advanced analytics like DVOA.

Only time will tell whether the Broncos outperform the projections.

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