Analytics Expose 5 Free-Agent ILBs Unlikely to Burn Broncos

The Denver Broncos have some holes to fill on their roster and will need to do it through free agency after trading away draft picks to land Sean Payton as the new head coach. An area of need is the linebacker corps.

Alex Singleton — Denver's 2022 tackling machine — is an unrestricted free agent, and Jonas Griffith could not stay healthy last season. The Broncos need to secure at least one linebacker in free agency to round out the position group before the NFL draft.

To understand who to target in free agency, we can look at the past to predict the future. By analyzing each player’s career by position, we can start to see when a player will peak and decline.

I have compiled all players who were in the NFL from 1998 to 2019 and whose final season was at least 2008. I segmented them by position and analyzed only players who started at least 60% of the possible games in their first three seasons.

Finally, each position was examined by the players' age in each of their seasons to find what percentage of games they started and what percentage of awards they received (first-team All-Pro/Pro Bowl).

Ages with less than 10 players at the position were excluded. In the below image, you will see how the linebackers fared.

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What it Means

Linebackers are very consistent throughout their career in their ability to start often. They typically garner attention for awards later in their career, from ages 29 to 33. Their gradual decline makes it possible for a team to take a chance on a linebacker who is a bit longer in the tooth.

The Broncos will likely try to bring back Singleton. It makes sense since he will be 30 years old next season and could have two to three years left of solid play after a season near the top in team history for tackles. It would be nice to see more impact plays if the Broncos re-sign the linebacker.

If the Broncos can’t agree with Singleton, several linebackers are hitting free agency who would fit the bill, based on the data above.

Tremaine Edmunds
David Long
Elandon Roberts
Bobby Okereke
Lavonte David

Edmunds would come with a sizable price tag but would be an upgrade due to his coverage ability. However, if the Broncos want to spend less, they could look at three other names on the list.

Long and Roberts aren’t household names but appear on the upswing of their respective careers. The Broncos may get one of them on a cheaper deal and get the best seasons of their career.

Okereke is nearly a clone of Singleton but a younger tackling machine that has a similar number of impact plays. Okereke may be cheaper and a better future option than Singleton.

David is more of a risk at his age, but the Broncos could take it. He has been an excellent linebacker for years and is very durable.

Denver could get a year of good play from him as it plans for the future with the draft. The Broncos need to upgrade the linebacking corps for a better fit in today’s NFL.

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