Analytics Expose 5 Free-Agent DL Unlikely to Burn Broncos

The Denver Broncos have some roster holes to fill and will need to do it through free agency after trading away draft picks to land Sean Payton as the new head coach. An area of need is along the defensive line.

At first glance, this position group doesn’t appear to be an area of concern, but Dre’Mont Jones and DeShawn Williams are unrestricted free agents. Mike Purcell will be 32 years old, and the two young draft picks from 2022 — Matt Henningsen and Eyioma Uwazurike — are unproven, though they appear promising.

To understand who the Broncos should target in free agency, we can look at the past to predict the future. By analyzing each player’s career by position, we can start to see when he will peak and decline.

I have compiled all players who were in the NFL from 1998 to 2019 and whose final season was at least 2008. I segmented them by position and analyzed only players who started at least 60% of the possible games in their first three seasons.

Finally, each position was examined by player’s age in each of their seasons to find what percentage of games they started and what percentage of awards (first-team All-Pro/Pro Bowl) they received (ages with less than 10 players at the position were excluded).

In the below image, you will see how the defensive line fared.

When it comes to their ability to start often, defensive linemen peak at 25 years old, but garner attention for awards from 26 to 32. Their decline is gradual, and 32 years old is about when their reliability fades.

This means that Purcell is nearing the end of the line, and the Broncos can only hope that the two rookies have a sizable sophomore leap in production. However, the Broncos need to do what it takes to retain Jones. He is entering the prime of a defensive lineman’s career and has been on the cusp of greatness for the past two seasons.

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If the Broncos can keep Jones, the defensive line will be solid, but the Broncos will need to add at least one more player to fill out the rotation. This offseason, there is a significant number of defensive line free agents, meaning the Broncos should be able to find one that won’t break the bank.

Here is a list of possible free agents entering their prime who the Broncos should take a swing at on the defensive line:

Greg Gaines
Armon Watts
Khalen Saunders
Taven Bryan
Shy Tuttle

None of these players will demand a bank-breaking contract and will be solid additions to the rotation. They may not currently be 'wow' players, but they are entering their prime and have the potential to become very good.

The Broncos should take a chance on one to fill out the defensive line and could land a starting-caliber player. This would give the team breathing room until the two drafted players in 2022 begin to realize their potential.

If they can’t, it would give the Broncos time to find others in the draft who could become the defensive lineman of the future.

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