5 Keys to a Broncos Victory Over Chiefs on Christmas Day

Here's how the Denver Broncos gift themselves the best possible Christmas present — their first win at Arrowhead Stadium in over a decade.

Nov 10, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton (14) celebrates with quarterback Bo Nix (10) after scoring against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

The Denver Broncos have been humbled. After surviving a diverse number of highly intense games that often went down to the wire for 11 straight weeks, it turns out, Denver is mortal after all.

The Broncos may still be the "overdogs," to quote Bo Nix, but every alpha requires wisdom. And you have to fail in order to become wise.

So, while the Broncos were humbled by the Jacksonville Jaguars, what they learned from that defeat could serve them in what remains of this season, with very much still at stake, and in the playoffs. Remember, the Broncos need to win out in order to clinch the AFC West crown and the No. 1 seed, but they've already secured a playoff berth.

The Kansas City Chiefs have been depleted. On the heels of a bizarrely unsuccessful season, the injury bug struck the Chiefs, and they're now the walking wounded. But Kansas City would love nothing more than to spoil the Broncos' hopes of winning the division for the first time since 2015.

What will it take to win at Arrowhead Stadium for the first time since Week 2 of the 2015 season? Let's get to five keys to a Broncos victory.

Back to the Post-Bye Bo Nix

Since the Broncos' Week 12 bye, Nix has played inspired football, and the passing offense has thrived. Those steps forward actually began in Week 11 vs. the full-strength Chiefs, but reached another level from Week 13 on.

Alas, in the second half of last week's loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars, Nix reverted to his Week 10 self, looking skittish in the pocket and making some questionable decisions, including a costly fumble, an interception, and an ill-advised pass that led to a Pat Bryant concussion.

It could be that the pressure of the 11-game winning streak had gotten to Nix, or perhaps that it was the Jaguars' defensive plan — they were a highly-ranked defense, after all. Whatever the explanation, though, Nix has to return to form.

The good news is, there's every reason to expect that he will against the Chiefs. Nix has always elevated his game when facing Kansas City and I don't expect that to change this time around, even though the opponent is depleted. There's too much on the line.

Shore Up the Tackling

The Broncos missed a shocking number of tackles last week vs. the Jaguars. It was especially bad at the second level and in space.

It's impossible to be an effective defense, let alone an elite one, with that level of unreliability in tackling, and it's a terrible harbinger for the playoffs. The Broncos' coaches recognized this, so you can believe that it's been a point of emphasis all week.

If the Broncos regain their tackling discipline, it's difficult to see the Chiefs' offense doing much on Thursday night. Third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun is already beleaguered and in over his head, but he's never seen anything like this Broncos pass rush.

It could get ugly quick for Kansas City. That is, unless Denver's tackling woes continue because the Chiefs' offense still has a lot of speed to inflict damage in space and on the edges.

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No More Turnovers

Dec 21, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Travon Walker (44) hits Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) during the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

It wasn't just that Denver turned the ball over twice last week. It's that both came in the second half as the Broncos were trying to mount a comeback.

The Broncos only have 16 total giveaways this season — the 10th-fewest — and Nix is consistently very careful with the ball. Another game of lackadaisical ball handling, though, could give the Chiefs just the sliver of daylight needed to kick the door open and upset the Broncos.

Feed RJ Harvey

The Broncos only gave Harvey seven carries last week, but he turned them into 50 yards and a touchdown. The Broncos' top two running backs last week — Harvey and Jaleel McLaughlin — both averaged north of 7.0 yards per carry against the NFL's No. 1 rushing defense, and yet, Sean Payton only called 12 hand-offs.

This Chiefs defense is tired and signaling a genuine lack of fight. Does Kansas City have the will to stop Denver's ground game? If I'm Payton, I'm finding out real quickly the answer to that question on Thursday night, and I'm relying on my rookie playmaker to do so.

Harvey ran with phenomenal intensity and physicality last week, and we already know how twitchy and explosive he is. Let him get even more reps with the playoffs coming up, and show him the meaning of ball-control offense in December.

Courtland Sutton All Day Long

If Nix returns to form and Payton stays committed to the ground attack with Harvey, there will come some enormous opportunities to gash the Chiefs in the play-action game. Sutton is only 28 receiving yards away from his second straight 1,000-yard season, and was just selected to the Pro Bowl.

The Broncos have some interesting receivers not-named Sutton, but none of them have proven to be capable of being more than a No. 3 guy in the NFL. That doesn't mean the likes of Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, and Marvin Mims Jr. can't continue to grow, but the Broncos will need to find Sutton a true No. 2 complement in the offseason.

Against the Chiefs, look for Nix to find Sutton early and often to ensure his Pro Bowl target gets over the 1,000-yard mark again.