3 Keys to a Broncos' Victory Over Lions in Week 14

After the Denver Broncos' 22-9 primetime blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, many fans are wondering where the team goes from here. Mathematically speaking, the Broncos are still alive in the AFC playoff hunt with a 6-6 record, currently tied with the Las Vegas Raiders, and are one game back from the 7-5 Los Angeles Chargers and two games removed from now 8-4 Chiefs.

If we’re being honest, though, Broncos Country is already anxiously awaiting the probable dismissal of head coach Vic Fangio, along with the possibility of a quarterback addition via trade, free agency, or the NFL draft. The fan base is tired of the consistent disappointment of the losing Broncos. The good news, however, is that there are still five remaining games on the schedule.

The debate rages on as to whether the season is likely to continue the nosedive of mediocrity with the occasional win versus the long-shot hope of Denver winning five in a row to close out the year and nearly guarantee a postseason berth. Whichever outlook you subscribe to, there will be football in the ‘Mile High City’ this Sunday as the Broncos host the 1-10-1 Detroit Lions.

This will be an emotionally-charged game in the wake of the shocking and untimely death of former Broncos Pro Bowl wideout Demaryius Thomas. Broncos Country was rocked by the news reported late Thursday night.

This game against the Lions is an opportunity for the Broncos to come together as an organization to unite, mourn, and attempt to bring the same toughness and class that Thomas carried with him both on and off the field.

Meanwhile, the Lions rejoiced after earning their first win of the season last week against the Minnesota Vikings, 29-27. First-year head coach Dan Campbell has entertained the football masses with his unorthodox metaphors that include 'biting kneecaps' in reference to his never-say-die philosophy and intense press conferences.

Detroit's record and pedigree hardly suggest that it's a formattable opponent. However, the game film reveals Detroit to be a very competitive team that went toe-to-toe with teams the likes of Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland.

How do the Broncos come out on top and get back to plus-.500? Let’s review three keys to victory for the Broncos against the Lions at home.

Take Away Hockenson with Simmons

This week, Broncos safety Justin Simmons was selected as the team’s 2021 Walter Payton Man of the Year for the third consecutive season — an award that recognizes a player for his distinguished leadership but more importantly, his impact in the community.

The honor matches the elite caliber of the person and athlete that Simmons is. He's become a fan-favorite since arriving as the Broncos' 2016 third-round draft pick and one of the most beloved athletes in the Mile High City.

While individual achievements make WPMOTY nominees feel good, so does winning football games — something the Broncos have had a bizarre time doing with any consistency as the team sits with an official .500 record. Last week, Simmons was tasked multiple times with defending Chiefs Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelce, who caught just three passes for 27 yards.

The Pro Bowl safety may have only recorded two tackles on primetime but he was consistently in position to defend Patrick Mahomes' deep bombs to Kansas City's explosive tandem of Kelce and wideout Tyreek Hill, the latter of whom only caught to balls for 22 yards while suffering from a case of the dropsies.

Lions offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn, former Chargers head coach, was relieved of offensive play-calling duties by Campbell in mid-November. The move was made to create a spark offensively with the objective of winning at least one game. Lions QB Jared Goff completed 25-of-41 attempts for 296 yds and three touchdowns with one interception in the team's first victory of the season.

Detroit tight end T.J. Hockenson was consistently a target for Goff, who hooked up with the third-year Pro Bowler four times on eight targets for 49 yds and a score. The 24-year-old from Iowa currently has 61 receptions for 583 yds, four touchdowns, and is averaging 9.5 yards per catch.

Hockenson is currently ranked third in receptions among NFL tight ends behind only Kelce, and Baltimore's Mark Andrews. Hockenson was Noah Fant's college teammate at Iowa and was selected ahead of him in the 2019 draft with the eighth overall pick.

It will be critical for Broncos head coach Vic Fangio to game-plan to take away Hockenson, who’s become Goff’s security blanket throughout the year. By assigning its ball-hawking safety to Hockenson, the Broncos' defense can most likely force a turnover against the Lions' struggling offense. In 12 games, Simmons tied for the team lead with four interceptions (and tied for fourth-most in the NFL), along with 46 tackles, and 13 stops.

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Lean on Javonte Williams Even if Gordon Returns

It didn’t take long for GM George Paton’s second-round draft pick to burst onto the scene and command national league attention. Williams quickly climbed the depth chart in training camp to become Melvin Gordon's backup, though both men have been used in tandem as co-starters for the most part.

The 21-year-old Williams was the winner of 'Angry Runs' — a segment on NFL Network's Good Morning Football — in addition to being named NFL Rookie of the Week against the Dallas Cowboys in November. Thus far, the 5-foot-10, 210-pound throwback leads the Broncos with 670 rushing yards and two scores, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Last Sunday against Kansas City, Williams saw his first career start after Gordon was held out due to a hip injury. ‘Pookie’ rushed for 102 yards in addition to catching six passes for 76 yards and one touchdown, which was the Broncos’ lone score.

While it’s speculated that Gordon will return to action against the Lions, the primary back should be Williams. Not only has he earned the starting position, but the rookie has proven to be efficient in rushing, pass protection, and as a receiver.

Since evaluating him before last year’s draft, I’ve always felt that Williams' receiving and route-running acumen were underrated aspects of his game. No, he’s not a Jerry Jeudy-caliber route runner but when Williams is in space, he makes defenders miss by running through contact.

Last week was the most that Broncos offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur has attempted to involve the rookie in the passing game with nine targets. For reference, the second-most targets Williams has garnered this season came against Cleveland in Week 7 with seven, compared to Gordon’s highest number of targets with four.

The North Carolina native has logged 33 receptions for 269 yards, including 11 first downs and four total touchdowns on the season. So, while fans clamor and beg Shurmur to run the ball and feed ‘Pookie’ on the ground, he’s more than capable of serving the same role in the passing game.

Against the Lions, Teddy Bridgewater should be able to utilize Williams in pass protection and as a safe checkdown option — if not the primary target on specific plays.

Style Points Don’t Count, But Field Goals do

If you were like me last Sunday night, anxiously biting your fingernails during the Broncos' fourth down attempts, then you can take a sigh of relief this week. Against the Chiefs' struggling but still potent offense, Fangio put his pedal to the metal, electing to go for it on fourth down six times.

The Broncos' offense converted three of those fourth-down attempts, yet only produced nine total points the whole game. On Sunday night, kicker Brandon McManus connected on a 42-yard field goal that would be his only attempt outside of kickoff duties.

Against Kansas City, the fourth-down attempts undoubtedly made sense but amid what is now a 12-game losing streak, the Lions are hardly an offensive juggernaut to force such recklessness. Pro Football Focus currently ranks Detroit 27th on offense and 31st on defense.

That means that if the Broncos' offense is anywhere near or in the red zone, Fangio needs to lean on his most consistent scoring weapon and that's McManus. The 30-year-old team captain is the only remaining player from the Broncos' Super Bowl 50 championship roster and is in his eighth season with the team.

In 12 games, McManus has made 19-of-22 field-goal attempts with one made from 50-plus yards. Conversely, all three of his misses have been from 50-plus yards. ‘B-Mac’ has also connected on 22-of-23 extra points, making him as close to a sure thing as there is in the kicking realm.

However, McManus is currently tied at 14th among active kickers in the league for field-goal attempts, which is somewhat disappointing for a specialist position dependent on accuracy. I love fourth-down attempts just as much as the next guy, but winning games at this point should be the goal with the Broncos clinging to desperate playoff aspirations.

Field goals aren’t fun to watch, nor do they assist in fantasy football lineups all that much, but they put points on the board and win games.

Follow Luke on Twitter @LukePattersonLP.

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