Broncos' Odds of Landing a Starting-Caliber OL in Round 3 Revealed

The Denver Broncos have to upgrade their offensive line after the poor showing last season. The Broncos must finally solidify their right tackle position and fill in weak spots at left guard and center.

If the Broncos are planning to rectify this situation in Round 3 of the 2023 NFL draft, there is good news and bad news. After analyzing every draft selection since 2009, I can provide the probability of selecting an impact player or a primary starting player for every round and position.

If the Broncos held a first or second-round pick this year (which they don't), they would be sitting in a good position. Denver could wait until the draft to address some of those needs along the offensive line. However, not selecting until Round 3 doesn’t bode well.

The Bad News

The probability of selecting an impact player at offensive tackle in the third round is 0.093. Not a very likely scenario.

It's slightly worse for interior offensive linemen at .086. Unfortunately, it's not likely that the Broncos will select an offensive lineman that will be a future award winner.

Making matters worse, interior offensive linemen and offensive tackles are some of the hardest positions to find an impact player in Round 3. When I compare across each position by looking at the number of players selected and how many became impact players, interior offensive linemen are second to last, and offensive tackles are only three spots better.

Both positions are well below the average across all positions. Teams struggle to find that talented offensive lineman in Round 3. That is the bad news.

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The Good News

Fortunately, if the Broncos are searching for an interior lineman who can be a primary starter for the team, the third round is a good spot. This position group ranks No. 1 across all positions, and it's much higher than the average.

The probability of selecting a primary starter is 0.514. That is a pretty solid probability for Round 3. The Broncos could find a player to solidify either the guard or center position as a reliable starter, even if they're not destined to be a star.

Offensive tackle doesn’t fair as well. This position is right at the average of all positions when finding a starter, and the probability of selecting one in this round is 0.313. A great deal less likely than finding that interior lineman.

What it Means

GM George Paton must find a solution to the Broncos' offensive line woes and cannot rely on the draft to do so this year. He should target an offensive lineman in free agency and perhaps use his first draft pick on a position more likely to become an impact player.

Or Paton could use a more prudent approach to targeting one of the most glaring weaknesses on the team and use free agency to solidify all three positions of need on the O-line — then draft an interior offensive lineman with one of Denver's first two picks to prepare for the future. If he decides to solve the issue with only the draft, the issue will likely continue to remain a problem.

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