3 Keys to a Broncos' Victory Over Raiders in Week 16

On Christmas week, the Denver Broncos travel to ‘Sin City’ to square off with the Las Vegas Raiders in a divisional Week 16 matchup. Vic Fangio’s team is coming off its fourth loss at home after falling to Cincinnati last Sunday while the Raiders are coming off a game-winning field goal from Monday’s doubleheader in Cleveland.

Both teams are mathematically alive in the AFC playoff hunt at 7-7 with the Broncos looking to settle the score after getting embarrassed by the Raiders in Week 6, falling at home 34-24 on a day that honored former Super Bowl-winning head coach Mike Shanahan's Ring-of-Fame induction.

The Broncos will likely be without their team captain and starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater after he sustained a scary concussion that resulted in a hospital admission last Sunday that left teammates, coaches, and fans worried.

Bridgewater was discharged from a local hospital the next day and reports indicate he has motion in all of his extremities. He's been ruled out for Week 16.

Drew Lock gets the starting nod after a mixed performance in relief of Teddy last week that included an exciting touchdown pass and yet another embarrassing turnover.

So how do the Broncos beat the Raiders and keep the dim hope of the postseason alive? Let’s review three keys to victory for the Orange and Blue on Raider week.

Simplify the Offense

Lock will unquestionably look to get some retribution after a disastrous 2020 performance on the road at Allegiant Stadium. The last time that the second-rounder from Missouri was in Las Vegas, he threw four interceptions in a humiliating 37-12 beatdown at the hands of the divisional foe.

Lock was asked to go full air-raid attack in that one, throwing the ball 47 times and completing just 23 passes as OC Pat Shurmur quickly abandoned a running game that totaled 66 yards rushing. This season, Shurmur has shown more of a commitment to the running game behind explosive rookie RB Javonte Williams and veteran counterpart Melvin Gordon.

The Broncos currently rank 10th in the league with 1,733 rushing yards, averaging 4.5 yards per carry along with 10 total rushing scores. Not only is the rushing attack critical to a team victory, but it’s crucial to setting Lock up with complementary pass plays.

Play-action passes, bootlegs, and operating from under center should be the common and relatively easy theme for Lock as QB1 this week. By keeping the 6-foot-4, 228-pound QB under center and away from shotgun, the Raiders defense should be kept honest with a priority of stuffing the run.

It’ll also allow Lock to easily read the safeties pre-snap and set up safe passes in the middle of the field to targets like Noah Fant or Jerry Jeudy. When faced with man coverage, it should be a no-brainer to try and throw one up to Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick as well.

High-low reads and simplicity is the key to success for Lock, who’s facing a Raiders' secondary that is less than respectable in pass defense.

What happens next for the Broncos? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second and sign up for our free newsletter and get breaking Broncos news delivered to your inbox daily!

Lock Down the 'Super Slot' with Surtain

When you watch any type of game film of the Raiders, it’s so blatantly obvious that WR Hunter Renfrow is the most dynamic player on the roster. The third-year receiver from Clemson is undeniably QB Derek Carr’s favorite target in the passing game and is heavily relied on to move the chains and score points.

Renfrow is currently tied with Minnesota WR Justin Jefferson for the sixth-most receptions in the NFL this season (89) and has totaled a team-leading 909 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 10.2 yards per catch. At 5-foot-10 and 184 pounds, the 2019 fifth-round pick has been a home-run for Raiders' GM Mike Mayock as Renfrow has logged 194 catches for 2,170 yards and 11 scores in 43 career games.

While Renfrow may not have the size or speed of other receivers, he continues to put defensive backs on skates and beats defenders with his underrated football acumen. Originally a QB in high school under his father who was the head coach, Renfrow utilizes an exceptional knowledge of the route tree and can diagnosis defensive coverages.

He’s a two-time National Champion at Clemson and is quickly raising the ceiling on his potential as a professional receiver in the NFL. Fangio called him a "super slot" earlier this week but Renfrow could very likely square off with a familiar face from college in Broncos' rookie first-rounder Patrick Surtain II.

Surtain was an 18-year-old true freshman at Alabama when he first met Renfrow on the field in the National Championship back in 2019. Clemson bested the Crimson Tide 44-16 with both players having limited playing time as Surtain logged a single tackle and Renfrow recorded two catches for 10 yards. The two players also met earlier this season in Denver where Surtain had four tackles compared to Renfrow who caught three balls for 36 yards.

Fangio has no choice but to match up the Raiders' No. 1 receiver with his top cornerback. Surtain has been a hell of a pick in his own right for first-year GM George Paton, who’s watched his rookie log 48 tackles (38 solo), 12 passes defensed, four interceptions, and one touchdown in 14 games. Surtain plays with a level of physicality and wits that should match Renfrow’s explosive ability.

Win the Turnover Battle

History, trends, and his latest performance suggest that Lock is more than likely going to cough up the football this Sunday. In the three games that he’s appeared in this season, Lock has thrown for 227 yards and one score while completing 55% of his passes with two picks and lost two fumbles.

He’s also been sacked five times and is averaging at least one sack and turnover in each game that he’s played in. But hold your horses, sports fans, because Carr has also been prone to turnovers this season.

Carr has a 19-to-11 TD-to-INT ratio with 4,162 passing yards. He also has 11 fumbles on the season, including two against the Browns last Monday in addition to an interception. The Raiders are currently -6 in turnover differential compared to the Broncos at a static zero.

This is a perfect game for team captain Justin Simmons to snag another interception to add to his five on the season already and show the Pro Bowl voters that they were remiss in snubbing him this year. It’s simple in this one, whoever wins the turnover battle will win the game.

Follow Luke on Twitter @LukePattersonLP.

Follow Mile High Huddle on Twitter and Facebook.

Subscribe to Mile High Huddle on YouTube for daily Broncos live-stream podcasts!

Add us as a preferred source on Google