Why Broncos TE Albert Okwuegbunam's Roster Odds Aren't Great

Every NFL team has those players that are guaranteed to make the roster. They're the easiest ones to project onto the 53-man roster, and even a team that went 5-12 the year before, like the Denver Broncos, has them.

Next up are the wide receivers, which has been made clear that Sean Payton wants to churn the position. Trade rumors were rampant leading up to the NFL Draft, but the Broncos reportedly didn't make a move because they didn't get an offer they liked. That has quieted down the rumors for now, but maybe they could pick back up as training camp starts and the season nears.

With 13 receivers currently on the 90-man roster, it will be a tough battle for almost everyone at the position. However, the question is, how many spots are open?

As I break down this position, players will be placed into three tiers reflecting their chances of making the roster. Here's a quick explanation of the three tiers that reflect the different percentage ranges that each player will fall into.

With that out of the way, let's examine how the odds shape up for the Broncos' tight end room.

Tier 1: 70-100%

Adam Trautman | Chris Manhertz | Greg Dulcich

There have been some rumblings about Dulcich, but Sean Payton has hinted at a big role for him in 2023. That's a good sign that Dulcich will be sticking around with the Broncos, and he showed plenty of promise in an injury-plagued rookie year to keep the hope alive.

Denver needs Dulcich to take a step forward with his play as a receiver and as a blocker, but the Broncos made moves to help out their blocking unit. His receiving ability is the most significant factor he brings to the Broncos' offense.

Manhertz was brought in to work as the top blocker in the group, and he is one of the best blockers at tight end in the NFL. He and Dulcich can work quite well together as the one and two because they're complete opposites as players. A receiving tight end with plenty of potential to develop and a top-notch blocking tight end.

Behind them, the Broncos made a late trade for Adam Trautman during the draft, and he is one of Payton's guys. Trautman has a solid, well-rounded skill set to work as part of the top three players at the position.

While he hasn't had impressive numbers as a receiver, catching only 60 passes over three seasons, he has shown reliability to work well there. Trautman also has demonstrated his ability as a blocker and fits in well as the third option in the rotation at tight end.

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Tier 2: 40-69%

Albert Okwuegbunam

There is a question about how many tight ends the Broncos will carry, which puts Okwuegbunam in a weird position. He's in a good spot to make it if the Broncos keep four tight ends and a fullback. If Denver keeps only three tight ends, that could spell the end of Okwuegbunam.

The biggest issue is his blocking ability, which has never developed. While Okwuegbunam can make plays on the field as a receiver, making him a solid backup to Dulcich, Denver could be looking for a more well-rounded skill set. The Broncos are going to be a run-heavy offense, so blocking is going to be vital.

One of the big differences between Dulcich and Okwuegbunam is effort. Dulcich lacks the technique, but his effort is unquestioned, which can't be said about Okwuegbunam.

Even if the Broncos keep four tight ends, maybe they look at bringing someone else in or look at one of the two in the next tier. Okwuegbunam has not caught on, ending up in the dog house with two previous coaching staffs, and dealing with multiple injuries. A lot is going against him, with Payton leading the way now.

READ: Broncos Roster Prediction: Revealing Each QB's Odds of Making it

Tier 3: 0-39%

Nate Adkins | Tommy Hudson

These two have a battle to find themselves on the roster, but they must also battle the numbers game. They need the Broncos to keep four tight ends to have a chance, and then they have to show enough to beat out Okwuegbunam.

Adkins is an undrafted rookie, and Hudson has not had an opportunity to stand out in his career with injuries and a suspension.

The Takeaway

The numbers game will matter for the Broncos' tight end position because the top three guys are practically cemented on the roster. Will there be four tight ends, and if there are, who will that fourth one be?

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